Bitcoin Fork: How Long Do We Have?

[Enjorlas]

 I'm just wondering from today's date (6/25/15) how long do we have until a decision HAS to be made about the fork? And I know how much you trolls like giving vague answers like 'it depends' but please ball park it. A week? A year? A decade? Thanks.

[manselr]

I'm just wondering from today's date (6/25/15) how long do we have until a decision HAS to be made about the fork? And I know how much you trolls like giving vague answers like 'it depends' but please ball park it. A week? A year? A decade? Thanks.

But it actually depends. Right now the 1MB block size can do just fine with the amount of volume we have. If the volume skyrocketed for some reason, as we saw with the stress test, the whole thing became a mess (confirmation times taking hours, blockchain.info not opening up.. etc). It would collapse.

So basically, we need it pretty soon because you never know when things can go trendy and mainstream and one has to be ready for that. Here's what Gavin proposes which includes an estimation of what would happen if we stay at 1MB blocksize:

[Amph]

nice chart, imagine now if the price will double for each new limit for the transaction, we would reach 512k with fully adoption, which mean a market cap of 10.752trillion

at 64mb and at 1 gb, i expect paypal and visa to do something, to not remain behind

[MicroGuy]

But it actually depends. Right now the 1MB block size can do just fine with the amount of volume we have. If the volume skyrocketed for some reason, as we saw with the stress test, the whole thing became a mess (confirmation times taking hours, blockchain.info not opening up.. etc). It would collapse.

Actually, nothing would collapse. A transaction fee market would simply emerge changing the nature and complexion of bitcoin slightly.

More in depth explanation of this view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwO5u6OVaaA

[LiteCoinGuy]

maybe just hours  !

[QuestionAuthority]

I'm just wondering from today's date (6/25/15) how long do we have until a decision HAS to be made about the fork? And I know how much you trolls like giving vague answers like 'it depends' but please ball park it. A week? A year? A decade? Thanks.

But it actually depends. Right now the 1MB block size can do just fine with the amount of volume we have. If the volume skyrocketed for some reason, as we saw with the stress test, the whole thing became a mess (confirmation times taking hours, blockchain.info not opening up.. etc). It would collapse.

So basically, we need it pretty soon because you never know when things can go trendy and mainstream and one has to be ready for that. Here's what Gavin proposes which includes an estimation of what would happen if we stay at 1MB blocksize:

That's a pretty cool chart and very optimistic. In a short 27 years he expects Bitcoin to do something Visa And MasterCard haven't been able to do in 60 years. That means he expects technology to stand still for 27 years without any new competitors to Bitcoin and Visa/MasterCard will go out of business. lol  It could happen I guess.

[ebliever]

It sounds like roughly a year is what people have in mind. I don't consider it "acceptable" to put ourselves in a situation where transaction fees start jumping up as they did in the stress test last weekend. Maybe someone who only moves thousands of dollars/euro of bitcoins at a time is OK with this, but for people of more modest means or for mundane transactions, having the fee go from .0001 BTC to some multiple of it is going to drive people away. It would mean the slow death of bitcoin (or maybe not so slow), as people found an altcoin without the obnoxious fee hitting them in every transaction.

[chennan]

It sounds like roughly a year is what people have in mind. I don't consider it "acceptable" to put ourselves in a situation where transaction fees start jumping up as they did in the stress test last weekend. Maybe someone who only moves thousands of dollars/euro of bitcoins at a time is OK with this, but for people of more modest means or for mundane transactions, having the fee go from .0001 BTC to some multiple of it is going to drive people away. It would mean the slow death of bitcoin (or maybe not so slow), as people found an altcoin without the obnoxious fee hitting them in every transaction.

yes, see here http://bitcoinexchangerate.org/fees
 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1101202.msg11723908#msg11723908
Ppl are paying 0.0002 BTC transaction fee to compete with other trasactions.

[jeannemadrigal2]

Yes, I think higher transaction fees are not a good thing.  It will stop people from adopting bitcoins, and since that is what 90% of what people know, it is not good.  Maybe people will not go to alt coins because they only know about bitcoins.  If prices increase enough then it will be like a money wire, where you need to send lots of money to use it.  But if we want wide adoption then we need people to be able to buy a coffee with bitcoins too, not just a car.

[bitnanigans]

A decision should have been made yesterday. Technological developments wait for no one.

[pooya87]

Yes, I think higher transaction fees are not a good thing.  It will stop people from adopting bitcoins, and since that is what 90% of what people know, it is not good.  Maybe people will not go to alt coins because they only know about bitcoins.  If prices increase enough then it will be like a money wire, where you need to send lots of money to use it.  But if we want wide adoption then we need people to be able to buy a coffee with bitcoins too, not just a car.

i agree that higher transaction fees is a bad thing for bitcoin, especially now that the miners does not really rely on transaction fees to make their job profitable. the block reward is high enough for now.
but i don't think that if it was to be increased, it would stop people from adopting bitcoin. i mean a new user doesn't care that much if he pays $0.025 or more for his transaction. rising fees will only hurt micro transactions.

[MicroGuy]

But if we want wide adoption then we need people to be able to buy a coffee with bitcoins too, not just a car.

That's not going to happen, not ever, not unless people get paid their wages in Bitcoin. A consumer is not going to take an extra step for no reason, nor should they. I would say 90% of this community should be focused on wage integration if we want a Bitcoin success. Sadly, only a tiny fraction understands this point.

[Amph]

But if we want wide adoption then we need people to be able to buy a coffee with bitcoins too, not just a car.

That's not going to happen, not ever, not unless people get paid their wages in Bitcoin. A consumer is not going to take an extra step for now reason, nor should they. I would say 90% of this community should be focused on wage integration if we want a Bitcoin success. Sadly, only a tiny fraction understands this point.

this is true, but it is not that easy to pay directly in bitcoin your employees, because, you need to face all sort of regulation and transparency, when doing such thing

so as long as there is no regulation on bitcoin in some countries, this thing will not see the light ever, and regulation comes with adoption, no one will bother about regulating a thing that does not raise the general interest

the problem is always one, adoption...

[Kprawn]

But if we want wide adoption then we need people to be able to buy a coffee with bitcoins too, not just a car.

That's not going to happen, not ever, not unless people get paid their wages in Bitcoin. A consumer is not going to take an extra step for now reason, nor should they. I would say 90% of this community should be focused on wage integration if we want a Bitcoin success. Sadly, only a tiny fraction understands this point.

We need to advocate https://bitpay.com/ a bit more... if people understand it correctly, they might just use it. More info : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BitPay

In many countries people are struggling to pay for the basics in Bitcoin. We cannot just have a situation where only a few niche items is paid for in Bitcoin, and the basic stuff is still being paid for in fiat.

Get the merchants and vendors to accept it, and the wage integration will follow.

[MicroGuy]

Get the merchants and vendors to accept it, and the wage integration will follow.

I'm not sure that wage integration will naturally follow. Slavery in the US did not naturally end.

Millions of merchants today accept Visa, Mastercard, and Apple Pay. Yet I know not of a single person that gets paid with any of these methods. As a community, it is up to each one of us to demand our employers pay us in Bitcoin. This needs to be in the forefront of the conversation.

Otherwise, Bitcoin will remain a fringe token payment system used to buy illegal drugs and fiat slavery will continue its rule.

[BitcoinNewbie15]

Well, the most straightforward answer I can give, is the fork will happen in around one year. I say that because, I heard that Bitcoin was going to be forked mid 2016 or maybe even early 2016. I am not sure if this information is correct though, all I remember is reading that on an article about the fork.

[monsanto]

I'm just wondering from today's date (6/25/15) how long do we have until a decision HAS to be made about the fork? And I know how much you trolls like giving vague answers like 'it depends' but please ball park it. A week? A year? A decade? Thanks.

But it actually depends. Right now the 1MB block size can do just fine with the amount of volume we have. If the volume skyrocketed for some reason, as we saw with the stress test, the whole thing became a mess (confirmation times taking hours, blockchain.info not opening up.. etc). It would collapse.

So basically, we need it pretty soon because you never know when things can go trendy and mainstream and one has to be ready for that. Here's what Gavin proposes which includes an estimation of what would happen if we stay at 1MB blocksize:

That's a pretty cool chart and very optimistic. In a short 27 years he expects Bitcoin to do something Visa And MasterCard haven't been able to do in 60 years. That means he expects technology to stand still for 27 years without any new competitors to Bitcoin and Visa/MasterCard will go out of business. lol  It could happen I guess.

Hmmmm...

[goosoodude]

To original poster: We have time probably until around the end of the year 2016. There is really no reason to do things now in a hurry. Don't believe anyone who claims we have to do it now instantly... otherwise doom.

I'm just wondering from today's date (6/25/15) how long do we have until a decision HAS to be made about the fork? And I know how much you trolls like giving vague answers like 'it depends' but please ball park it. A week? A year? A decade? Thanks.

But it actually depends. Right now the 1MB block size can do just fine with the amount of volume we have. If the volume skyrocketed for some reason, as we saw with the stress test, the whole thing became a mess (confirmation times taking hours, blockchain.info not opening up.. etc). It would collapse.

So basically, we need it pretty soon because you never know when things can go trendy and mainstream and one has to be ready for that. Here's what Gavin proposes which includes an estimation of what would happen if we stay at 1MB blocksize:

I don't like that picture. The resolution is misleading.

[Jeremycoin]

I'm just wondering from today's date (6/25/15) how long do we have until a decision HAS to be made about the fork? And I know how much you trolls like giving vague answers like 'it depends' but please ball park it. A week? A year? A decade? Thanks.

But it actually depends. Right now the 1MB block size can do just fine with the amount of volume we have. If the volume skyrocketed for some reason, as we saw with the stress test, the whole thing became a mess (confirmation times taking hours, blockchain.info not opening up.. etc). It would collapse.

So basically, we need it pretty soon because you never know when things can go trendy and mainstream and one has to be ready for that. Here's what Gavin proposes which includes an estimation of what would happen if we stay at 1MB blocksize:

Seriously? 1 Petabyte? for a Blockchain size?
I'm wondering, can I use a Bitcoin core in the future? Because it would take a long time to download the Blockchain

[QuestionAuthority]

I'm just wondering from today's date (6/25/15) how long do we have until a decision HAS to be made about the fork? And I know how much you trolls like giving vague answers like 'it depends' but please ball park it. A week? A year? A decade? Thanks.

But it actually depends. Right now the 1MB block size can do just fine with the amount of volume we have. If the volume skyrocketed for some reason, as we saw with the stress test, the whole thing became a mess (confirmation times taking hours, blockchain.info not opening up.. etc). It would collapse.

So basically, we need it pretty soon because you never know when things can go trendy and mainstream and one has to be ready for that. Here's what Gavin proposes which includes an estimation of what would happen if we stay at 1MB blocksize:

Seriously? 1 Petabyte? for a Blockchain size?
I'm wondering, can I use a Bitcoin core in the future? Because it would take a long time to download the Blockchain

No one could download the blockchain at that point because it would take 27 years to download.

Don't you love the overly dramatic green failure line coming from the one mb threshold. rofl