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Question: Is Greek default going to be the first domino in a massive global debt crisis?  (Voting closed: July 27, 2015, 08:08:41 PM)
Default-YES Crisis NO - 6 (31.6%)
Default-Yes Crisis YES - 11 (57.9%)
Default-NO Crisis NO - 2 (10.5%)
Default-NO Crisis YES - 0 (0%)
Total Voters: 19

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Author Topic: Greece and the collapse of the global financial system  (Read 918 times)
lunarboy (OP)
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June 27, 2015, 08:08:41 PM
 #1



Lots of scaremongering going on with regards to the 'imminent Greek default'

So a simple question do you think a Greek default will happen, and if so will this be the 'Lehmen'/Northern Rock event to cause a massive global debt crisis that everyone has been 'zerohedge' fearing.          ....... i.e 2008 eat you heart out Mad Max here we come?     Huh


30 day poll discus.
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June 28, 2015, 05:08:26 AM
 #2



If the Greeks default, various European Union countries, such as Germany, Italy, Spain and France will lose billions of Euros. Germany alone will lose some €56 billion, which can crush the German economy. Economies all over the Europe will be affected as a result of this, as most of them are dependent on Germany.



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June 28, 2015, 06:58:58 AM
 #3



If the Greeks default, various European Union countries, such as Germany, Italy, Spain and France will lose billions of Euros. Germany alone will lose some €56 billion, which can crush the German economy. Economies all over the Europe will be affected as a result of this, as most of them are dependent on Germany.

it will lose 80-90 billion but no, that wont crush germany. it is just more debt.

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June 28, 2015, 07:04:01 AM
 #4

I remember the day Greece happened in 2010ish it was the second day my scalper was running on eurchf and took my margin.. I remember distinctly that I tested for months but the big event happened when I went live so I say the day that happened was the end for Greece and leading up to what's going to happen.. Can kicking until it's all over.
It's the third defaulting event for Greece it will happen and Bitcoin will benefit.. Great time for us.
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June 28, 2015, 07:51:42 AM
 #5

it will lose 80-90 billion but no, that wont crush germany. it is just more debt.

Care to explain why this will not crush the German economy? The German GDP is worth some €3 trillion, and the debts by Greee account for almost 3% of it. If Greece refuses to pay the debt to Germany, then 3% of the German GDP will vanish, in a matter of seconds. And considering the fact that the German GDP growth was just 1.6% in 2014, don't you think that this will start a recession in Germany?



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June 28, 2015, 05:10:18 PM
 #6



If the Greeks default, various European Union countries, such as Germany, Italy, Spain and France will lose billions of Euros. Germany alone will lose some €56 billion, which can crush the German economy. Economies all over the Europe will be affected as a result of this, as most of them are dependent on Germany.

It still seems likely to me that the ECB/IMF will fold at the last minute because the consequences of a default far out way the costs of restructuring Greek debt (read: write some of it off).

I'm sure there are a few busy calculators this weekend calculating the exact cost of each scenario.
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June 28, 2015, 05:25:56 PM
 #7

It still seems likely to me that the ECB/IMF will fold at the last minute because the consequences of a default far out way the costs of restructuring Greek debt (read: write some of it off).

I think that the troika has reconciled with the idea of writing of a large part of the Greek debt. But they are afraid that if they do so, then it will set up a precedent for the other EU nations in similar situations, such as Portugal, Spain and Italy. So the two sides will bargain hard... and in the end, some sort of compromise will be reached in which it might look from the outside that both of them won.



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June 29, 2015, 08:05:20 PM
 #8

Seems like the Bluff of the century.

Not sure which side is bluffing  Huh

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-29/greece-will-default-imf-tomorrow-government-official-says
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June 29, 2015, 08:11:29 PM
 #9

It's a bit more complicated than the options you're listing but I will explain my reasoning.

Default YES Crisis YES - This would certainly trigger a crises much faster which is why the ECB is so determined to try and make sure Greece doesn't collapse, you have to remember that all these countries that want to be in the European Union or are in it are constantly swapping bonds with each other and borrowing off each other if one goes down, like a giant ponzi scheme, they all go down

Default NO Crises YES but POSTPONED - This is a bit more tricky, because they will have accepted terms for a bailout or whatever they require they may in fact POSTPONE the crises because Greece will end up getting more money pumped into the economy, things will work for awhile but then eventually the whole system will collapse in on itself, this will again cause another meltdown in the countries.

Puerto Rico is another country to take note of as well in this situation and may not receieve the same benefits as Greece, since it's small it likely won't make too much difference to the economy but it may get the Iceland treatment where they just abandon it completely. I expect what will likely happen is after a lot of drama unless there is practically a revolution in Greece and people vote to get out of the Euro they'll likely stick with what they consider safe, so things will go back to 'normal' for a time and then as I wrote earlier the entire economy will start collapsing.

I don't believe that there will be no crisis at all, in fact, this Greece default situation snuck up on me faster than I was expecting, I knew Europe would go down, I just didn't know it would be like this.
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June 29, 2015, 08:28:55 PM
 #10


^^ True True

 it's clearly alot more complicated than a simple poll can predict. A simple effort on my part, at a basic prediction market type question. Something that I look forward to seeing more of now there are so may bitcoin enabled prediction platforms.

Although with
Quote
    Greece won't pay IMF tranche due Tuesday, government official says http://t.co/xnCG6c6baX

    — WSJ Breaking News (@WSJbreakingnews) June 29, 2015


Things like this coming out of government sources it seems that both the 'DEFAULT NO' options are looking very unlikely.
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June 29, 2015, 08:39:43 PM
 #11

don't worry, German voters are dumb like horseshit, they will keep voting Merkel and keep paying forever  Cool

Euro is a political project so it will be supported at all costs, no matter what

Greek people are very smart parasites with 2000+ years of experience, and Germans are the world's dumbest hosts, they like being buttfucked by their leaders  Cheesy

Truth is the new hatespeech.
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June 29, 2015, 10:14:57 PM
 #12



Because capitalism deserves it.

Remember Aaron Swartz, a 26 year old computer scientist who died defending the free flow of information.
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June 29, 2015, 10:27:55 PM
 #13

don't worry, German voters are dumb like horseshit, they will keep voting Merkel and keep paying forever  Cool

Euro is a political project so it will be supported at all costs, no matter what

Greek people are very smart parasites with 2000+ years of experience, and Germans are the world's dumbest hosts, they like being buttfucked by their leaders  Cheesy

nono, this time it seems merkel is prepared for maximum pain.

german tv is already running amok about grexit and that it is the best solution.

/edit

sigmar gabriel was even talking about germany being prepared to deliver humanitarian aid after a possible grexit   Roll Eyes

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jaysabi
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June 30, 2015, 01:31:02 AM
 #14

it will lose 80-90 billion but no, that wont crush germany. it is just more debt.

Care to explain why this will not crush the German economy? The German GDP is worth some €3 trillion, and the debts by Greee account for almost 3% of it. If Greece refuses to pay the debt to Germany, then 3% of the German GDP will vanish, in a matter of seconds. And considering the fact that the German GDP growth was just 1.6% in 2014, don't you think that this will start a recession in Germany?

Those debt numbers don't figure into GDP because GDP is just an aggregate value of transactions. If the money owed to Germany vanishes, it doesn't have anything to do with GDP, because that figure wasn't part of GDP in the first place. However, the consequences of a default could affect GDP if people stop spending out of fear and uncertainty. But that's not the same thing. The answer is that the debt default doesn't automatically translate into less GDP.

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June 30, 2015, 02:10:05 AM
 #15



Because capitalism deserves it.

Your using a currency that runs on capitalism.
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June 30, 2015, 09:44:53 AM
 #16

It still seems likely to me that the ECB/IMF will fold at the last minute because the consequences of a default far out way the costs of restructuring Greek debt (read: write some of it off).

I think that the troika has reconciled with the idea of writing of a large part of the Greek debt. But they are afraid that if they do so, then it will set up a precedent for the other EU nations in similar situations, such as Portugal, Spain and Italy. So the two sides will bargain hard... and in the end, some sort of compromise will be reached in which it might look from the outside that both of them won.
Greeks have been targeted because the currency is in a slump.
As per my news ,Greeks have been withdrawing billions of euros from their savings accounts in recent weeks, as much as a billion euros each day in the last week.

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June 30, 2015, 03:47:06 PM
 #17

The ECB can make its own "bad bank" and can print enough money for buying up all the Greek debt through that bank. That could be a way to stabilize the situation or at least slow down the domino effect.
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June 30, 2015, 03:50:22 PM
 #18

don't worry, German voters are dumb like horseshit, they will keep voting Merkel and keep paying forever  Cool

Euro is a political project so it will be supported at all costs, no matter what

Greek people are very smart parasites with 2000+ years of experience, and Germans are the world's dumbest hosts, they like being buttfucked by their leaders  Cheesy

nono, this time it seems merkel is prepared for maximum pain.

german tv is already running amok about grexit and that it is the best solution.

/edit

sigmar gabriel was even talking about germany being prepared to deliver humanitarian aid after a possible grexit   Roll Eyes
This term grexit (first time I heard of this being used) sounds like German is ready to turn it into an German owed state.
History always seems to repeat itself  Roll Eyes
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June 30, 2015, 04:03:50 PM
 #19

Your using a currency that runs on capitalism.


Bitcoin is only a tool, capitalism only a game. What we do with this new tool is up to us, for now.

The blockchain will outlive both you and I, and capitalism by many centuries.

Remember Aaron Swartz, a 26 year old computer scientist who died defending the free flow of information.
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June 30, 2015, 04:41:26 PM
 #20


The blockchain will outlive both you and I, and capitalism by many centuries.


We really haven't actually had true capitalism for a long time, if ever, way too many regulations and controlled commodity flows. Perhaps Digital currency will actually enable a new era of cryptographic capitalism. I.e provably fair capitalism?
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