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Author Topic: Matonis: If Bitcoin XT Succeeds You Can Kiss 21 Million Cap Goodbye  (Read 4472 times)
ragi
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June 30, 2015, 09:21:27 AM
 #61

If the cap is altered you can kiss bitcoin goodbye.

no.
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June 30, 2015, 10:49:46 AM
 #62

There's a very short list of people that matter in development. They will figure out what's best for us. We really have no say anyway.

Wait, what?  I can't tell if I'm reading that wrong somehow or if it's sarcasm, because I normally find your posts quite agreeable.  The entire debate is about the possible risk of mining centralisation versus the possible risk of not being able to accommodate more users on the blockchain and therefore force them off-chain into the hands of centralised payment processors (which is just a different kind of centralisation).  

It's odd that someone would place blind faith in the developers alone to decide the outcome, because that would mean Bitcoin is already centralised in a sense (developer centralisation, yet another kind).  The very fact that we get to decide which fork to support is a guarantee that no one group or individual can become entrenched and make all the decisions about how the network is run.  Of all the types of decentralisation, the ability for the users securing the network being able to enact change by running another client is vital.  We should never allow a small minority to dictate what Bitcoin is or should be, otherwise we run the risk of encouraging corruption and repeating the mistakes of fiat money.

With regard to mining centralisation, personally, I don't foresee a larger blocksize leading to that.  As the block reward diminishes over time, fees will become increasingly important to incentivise miners to continue securing the network, so naturally fees need to increase overall.  The question is, do you make individual users pay a higher amount?  Or do you allow the number of transactions to increase and collect a greater quantity of fees.  A larger number of users sending more transactions will naturally generate more fees.  In turn, more fees should encourage more miners to secure the network and pay for any additional bandwidth they need to use (not less miners, like people keep assuming for reasons that still don't make any sense).  If Bitcoin does ever turn into a niche plaything for the wealthy elites, just sending the odd large transaction every once in a while and everyone else is using something else to send small and medium sized payments, the "something else" they're using will probably attract more miners because of the higher transaction volume and the larger quantity of fees.

Obviously I can't guarantee it will turn out that way.  No one knows for certain what the outcome will be, because it all depends on adoption.  If adoption of crypto does surge and Bitcoin can't accommodate the extra users, which is the more likely outcome?

    a)  Users either put up with having to guess what fee they need to include to guarantee their transaction is confirmed in a reasonable time, or go off-chain and risk trusting a centralised service with their money
    or
    b)  Users flock to another network that doesn't have an arbitrary 1MB cap, which can accommodate more transactions on a blockchain and confirms quickly without higher fees and guessing games

People tend to make the assumption that a larger blocksize would encourage more microtransactions or other transactions sent without a fee.  To an extent, that's possible (but not a certainty by any means), so there is a balance to be struck to ensure there is space enough for legitimate fee-paying transactions, but not so much space that most of the traffic being processed doesn't give any reward for the miners securing the network.  1MB almost certainly isn't enough, but how much is too much?  That's where most of the discourse seems to focus, and rightly so.  Balls to all this nonsense about the 21 million cap, that's just a distraction by people who don't want us to focus on the real issue, which is scalability versus decentralisation and the potential consequences of getting it wrong.

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...#EndTheFUD...
bitnanigans
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June 30, 2015, 10:52:27 AM
 #63

I don't think anyone would want to change the 21 million cap. The obvious reason for raising the block size limit is 7 transactions per second is not a sustainable rate for mass adoption.
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June 30, 2015, 12:58:33 PM
 #64

Let me get it right. The meaning put out here is that basically if Gavin goes ahead to fork the coin without getting majority consensus, there's a possibility that one day they will also change the cap limit as and when they want to. I think basically the issue here is how do we determine what level of consensus we are talking about. When it comes to the larger block size, I believe there are 2 camps of people, one opposes it and another one agree. The question is how many each camp is dominating? if 60% says okay and the rest says no, the 40% can also claim that we did not get full majority.

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June 30, 2015, 04:37:28 PM
 #65

There's a very short list of people that matter in development. They will figure out what's best for us. We really have no say anyway.

Wait, what?  I can't tell if I'm reading that wrong somehow or if it's sarcasm, because I normally find your posts quite agreeable.  The entire debate is about the possible risk of mining centralisation versus the possible risk of not being able to accommodate more users on the blockchain and therefore force them off-chain into the hands of centralised payment processors (which is just a different kind of centralisation).  

It's odd that someone would place blind faith in the developers alone to decide the outcome, because that would mean Bitcoin is already centralised in a sense (developer centralisation, yet another kind).  The very fact that we get to decide which fork to support is a guarantee that no one group or individual can become entrenched and make all the decisions about how the network is run.  Of all the types of decentralisation, the ability for the users securing the network being able to enact change by running another client is vital.  We should never allow a small minority to dictate what Bitcoin is or should be, otherwise we run the risk of encouraging corruption and repeating the mistakes of fiat money.

With regard to mining centralisation, personally, I don't foresee a larger blocksize leading to that.  As the block reward diminishes over time, fees will become increasingly important to incentivise miners to continue securing the network, so naturally fees need to increase overall.  The question is, do you make individual users pay a higher amount?  Or do you allow the number of transactions to increase and collect a greater quantity of fees.  A larger number of users sending more transactions will naturally generate more fees.  In turn, more fees should encourage more miners to secure the network and pay for any additional bandwidth they need to use (not less miners, like people keep assuming for reasons that still don't make any sense).  If Bitcoin does ever turn into a niche plaything for the wealthy elites, just sending the odd large transaction every once in a while and everyone else is using something else to send small and medium sized payments, the "something else" they're using will probably attract more miners because of the higher transaction volume and the larger quantity of fees.

Obviously I can't guarantee it will turn out that way.  No one knows for certain what the outcome will be, because it all depends on adoption.  If adoption of crypto does surge and Bitcoin can't accommodate the extra users, which is the more likely outcome?

    a)  Users either put up with having to guess what fee they need to include to guarantee their transaction is confirmed in a reasonable time, or go off-chain and risk trusting a centralised service with their money
    or
    b)  Users flock to another network that doesn't have an arbitrary 1MB cap, which can accommodate more transactions on a blockchain and confirms quickly without higher fees and guessing games

People tend to make the assumption that a larger blocksize would encourage more microtransactions or other transactions sent without a fee.  To an extent, that's possible (but not a certainty by any means), so there is a balance to be struck to ensure there is space enough for legitimate fee-paying transactions, but not so much space that most of the traffic being processed doesn't give any reward for the miners securing the network.  1MB almost certainly isn't enough, but how much is too much?  That's where most of the discourse seems to focus, and rightly so.  Balls to all this nonsense about the 21 million cap, that's just a distraction by people who don't want us to focus on the real issue, which is scalability versus decentralisation and the potential consequences of getting it wrong.

Yes, it's sarcasm. I'm making fun of the fact the devs can do pretty much what ever they want to do. We can bitch and whine about it but really we only have two options after they make a change - continue to use Bitcoin - refuse to use Bitcoin. That's the extent of our power.

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June 30, 2015, 08:01:48 PM
 #66


You guys don't get it, this has become another Nuclear arms race between nations.

Gavin and those backing him cannot do whatever they want cause China controls 60% of the network.  If they don't get the Chinese to agree then Bitcoin's storyline changes completely and becomes fiat 2.0.  The story behind Bitcoin was bullishit all along and I've been on record calling out Andreas et al as paid shills and liars but they really can't afford to make it obvious until After mass adoption which is another 1-2 years away.

After that happens you can bet Bitcoin is gonna go closed source, the fed will take over and once everyone is in the blockchain there will be no turning back so everyone will have to shut up and deal with it.

So until then, Gavin and the bankers pushing him will have to reach some sort of compromise in order to get consensus - especially the massive Chinese mining pools, which are absolutely owned and operated by the Chinese government.  Crypto has just become very political, on every level, including national security.

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June 30, 2015, 08:17:18 PM
 #67

Well, that escalated quickly...

Even if the 21 million cap is altered, who cares? We will all be dead by then!

If the value of bitcoin matters, than the cap matters immensely.

It could be argued that Bitcoin is build on utility and scarcity.

Perceived future scarcity is one of the key drivers of current value. If people now perceive that the scarcity is not really trustworthy.. and can be pushed back.. that really damages the entire foundation of bitcoin (and of course the value).
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August 17, 2015, 07:38:09 PM
 #68

has everyone gone apeshit crazy lately? Noone can think straight. The gov't and bankers given us drugs that make us stupid? What the hell?

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August 17, 2015, 07:50:22 PM
 #69


You guys don't get it, this has become another Nuclear arms race between nations.

Gavin and those backing him cannot do whatever they want cause China controls 60% of the network.  If they don't get the Chinese to agree then Bitcoin's storyline changes completely and becomes fiat 2.0.  The story behind Bitcoin was bullishit all along and I've been on record calling out Andreas et al as paid shills and liars but they really can't afford to make it obvious until After mass adoption which is another 1-2 years away.

After that happens you can bet Bitcoin is gonna go closed source, the fed will take over and once everyone is in the blockchain there will be no turning back so everyone will have to shut up and deal with it.

So until then, Gavin and the bankers pushing him will have to reach some sort of compromise in order to get consensus - especially the massive Chinese mining pools, which are absolutely owned and operated by the Chinese government.  Crypto has just become very political, on every level, including national security.

LOL, suffer from paranoid delusions much? Tongue With you tin foil hat guys it's impossible to believe anyone is actually just a good guy trying to be honest. Everything must be hidden in secrecy and conspiracies. If you think like that nothing good will come of anything ever.

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August 17, 2015, 07:50:45 PM
 #70

has everyone gone apeshit crazy lately? Noone can think straight. The gov't and bankers given us drugs that make us stupid? What the hell?
No kidding. I was stupid to start with and I understand how crazy this is. I'm about as threatened by this as by MintChip.

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August 17, 2015, 07:50:53 PM
 #71

has everyone gone apeshit crazy lately? Noone can think straight. The gov't and bankers given us drugs that make us stupid? What the hell?

LOL  It was only a matter of time.

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August 17, 2015, 08:27:29 PM
 #72


You guys don't get it, this has become another Nuclear arms race between nations.

Gavin and those backing him cannot do whatever they want cause China controls 60% of the network.  If they don't get the Chinese to agree then Bitcoin's storyline changes completely and becomes fiat 2.0.  The story behind Bitcoin was bullishit all along and I've been on record calling out Andreas et al as paid shills and liars but they really can't afford to make it obvious until After mass adoption which is another 1-2 years away.

After that happens you can bet Bitcoin is gonna go closed source, the fed will take over and once everyone is in the blockchain there will be no turning back so everyone will have to shut up and deal with it.

So until then, Gavin and the bankers pushing him will have to reach some sort of compromise in order to get consensus - especially the massive Chinese mining pools, which are absolutely owned and operated by the Chinese government.  Crypto has just become very political, on every level, including national security.

LOL, suffer from paranoid delusions much? Tongue With you tin foil hat guys it's impossible to believe anyone is actually just a good guy trying to be honest. Everything must be hidden in secrecy and conspiracies. If you think like that nothing good will come of anything ever.

He's right to question these people, but I think his analysis is wrong.

My Take:

The elite powerbrokers of this planet (the ostensible conspirators) know about the inherent stability flaws in a debt-based monetary system. They also have an awareness of the cumulative nature of technological progress. And lastly, they have an awareness of the changing of "defining eras". We are currently in the crossover between the Corporate Era and the Information Era.

The use of information technology to develop and run game theory scenarios is now highly advanced, and the power elite use these kind of tools to examine as many possible configurations and outcomes as they deem, which they no doubt do exhaustively. I think they have come to a conclusion: that the confluence of the major factors mentioned in the previous paragraph (debt-based money, exponentially accumulating technological progress, shift into the Information age) means that government as we know it from the 20 century is not viable given these dominant trends. They are planning to exit stage left.

Take a look around you; the evidence abounds.

Vires in numeris
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August 17, 2015, 09:44:59 PM
 #73

has everyone gone apeshit crazy lately? Noone can think straight. The gov't and bankers given us drugs that make us stupid? What the hell?

LOL  It was only a matter of time.

indeed, something strange is happening:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/07/09/us-cities-homicide-surge-2015/29879091/
http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/7/8908073/heroin-abuse-deaths-united-states-cdc
http://abcnews.go.com/US/global-shark-attacks-rise-surprising-reasons/story?id=31799899
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August 17, 2015, 09:50:06 PM
 #74


Next stop: raining frogs and plagues of locusts  Grin

Vires in numeris
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