What will the state do?

[annette786]

I'm up late... my mind is whirling.  I'm trying to figure out what the feds are going to to about bitcoin.  I've come to the conclusion that cryto currencies are here to stay. 

The situation is this.  Confidence in the world's reserve currency is rapidly waning.  The IMF has been calling for a dollar alternative (http://www.boounce.com/search/?g=163&s=1449&q=IMF+calls+for+dollar+alternative), gold is more expensive than platinum, and the US dept is over $16 trillion.  The dollar has big problems.

I keep thinking about a point my old economics prof made about the the government being reluctant to change the physical characteristics (color) of the dollar.  The dollar represents ultimate stability.  Changing it might affect that.  Bitcoin is such a minuscule part of the economy.  The last thing the feds want to do is highlight fear and weakness in the dollar by labeling bitcoin as a threat.  Additionally, all they would do is create iterative competitors. Their only recourse is to embrace and regulate it, or go after it covertly. 

[RaTTuS]

1) the world is not run by dollars
2) China owns most of US
3) the euro is pretty much borked
4) other stuff

[Bitcoin Oz]

If bitcoin takes hold how are they going to able to fund their police state or military industrial complex to go after bitcoin ?

If they were really all powerful the silk road wouldnt be out there giving them the finger right now 

[CryptoFreak33]

Right now, Bitcoin doesn't really pose a risk to the establishment. They're probably not allocating a lot of resources to investigating or cracking it at the moment. If an economic collapse happens (thing Wiemar Republic style) then they will throw everything they have at it. Will that work? Probably not. We can assume the NSA is already working on it and they haven't (to our knowledge) cracked it yet.

So what does that leave?

Laws.  If a collapse happens, gold, silver, other precious metals and Bitcoin will likely flourish. A call on gold would probably happen and Bitcoins would be outlawed. We'd see a sudden rash of terrorists using Bitcoins to finance extremist activities and general fearmongering.  When you have a public obedient enough to hand over their gold and silver voluntarily, they will run from this spooky new Internet currency in droves. Bitcoin would be completely disconnected from the mainstream.

But on the fringes... :-)

[justusranvier]

When a state reaches peak extortion and begins to lose the ability to function the people who have control of government-owned resources usually start looting whatever they can get their hands on. This is followed by a dissolution of the existing government and the formation of a new one that doesn't recognize the financial obligations of the previous one (too bad about those pensions...).

I expect the government to spend more time using Bitcoin to to launder misappropriated funds than it spends trying to outlaw it.

[DeathAndTaxes]

2) China owns most of US

LOLZ.  US owns most of US debt.  Try reading more than the headline next time.

[Chong Ciao]

When a state reaches peak extortion and begins to lose the ability to function the people who have control of government-owned resources usually start looting whatever they can get their hands on. This is followed by a dissolution of the existing government and the formation of a new one that doesn't recognize the financial obligations of the previous one (too bad about those pensions...).

I expect the government to spend more time using Bitcoin to to launder misappropriated funds than it spends trying to outlaw it.

+++1

[kokojie]

1) the world is not run by dollars
2) China owns most of US
3) the euro is pretty much borked
4) other stuff

China owns tiny portion of US debt, and almost no US asset.

[Etlase2]

China owns tiny portion of US debt, and almost no US asset.

I'm not sure how $1.1T can be considered tiny.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

[Chong Ciao]

China owns tiny portion of US debt, and almost no US asset.

I'm not sure how $1.1T can be considered tiny.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

cause unfunded obligations of the USA $ ponzi scheme are 1 quadrillion $
as that countrys inhabitants decline to be able to count on three........reconciliation will require even more popcorn as in the second world war.....
cause this time it´ll take place on the ignorants own soil

[Insu Dra]

2) China owns most of US

LOLZ.  US owns most of US debt.  Try reading more than the headline next time.

The Fed != Us Gov, Private banks got the US (and most others) to bend over and spread wide ...

I'm tempted to agree that china is the biggest holder, why ? The fed is owned by several private institutions, if you could look at owner ship shares and follow the trail I'm sure you can add a few trillion extra on to china's account.

Not to mention that this does not account for all private and/or corperate owned depth inside the US!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-holders-of-us-gov-t-debt.html


As for state, they will do what they always do: if you can't beat it, join it and change it from the inside ... (co-opt)

[mobile4ever]

Bitcoin would be completely disconnected from the mainstream.

But what if the mainstream had already adopted it?

[Severian]

The last thing the feds want to do is highlight fear and weakness in the dollar by labeling bitcoin as a threat.  Additionally, all they would do is create iterative competitors. Their only recourse is to embrace and regulate it, or go after it covertly. 

It's a sure bet that a majority of the people working in the Federal system have no idea how bitcoin works, assuming they've even heard of it. Bitcoin's strength is that it's an idea first and foremost and a currency/commodity second. Ideas aren't valued in the upper realms of American "culture" anymore since only the $$ signs matter.

Of the small percentage that work on the Fed Farm that do understand bitcoin, I'd also bet that at least some of them actually LIKE the idea. If you're smart enough to grasp how bitcoin works, you're also smart enough to know why the current economic system won't work anymore.

[kokojie]

China owns tiny portion of US debt, and almost no US asset.

I'm not sure how $1.1T can be considered tiny.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

Just federal debt alone, is 16T, 1.1T is just what 7%? yeah that's what I consider tiny. Not to mention we have state and municipal debts, that has already cause a number of municipality to declare bankruptcy. This is just government debt. US companies have another 40T of corporate debt.

[Chong Ciao]

China owns tiny portion of US debt, and almost no US asset.

I'm not sure how $1.1T can be considered tiny.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

Just federal debt alone, is 16T, 1.1T is just what 7%? yeah that's what I consider tiny. Not to mention we have state and municipal debts, that has already cause a number of municipality to declare bankruptcy. This is just government debt. US companies have another 40T of corporate debt.

peanuts compared to the shaddow banking systems quadrillion ponzified derivatives....are you american?  trying to start counting?

[Etlase2]

Just federal debt alone, is 16T, 1.1T is just what 7%? yeah that's what I consider tiny. Not to mention we have state and municipal debts, that has already cause a number of municipality to declare bankruptcy. This is just government debt. US companies have another 40T of corporate debt.

It's >25% of foreign-owned debt. The Fed and other US agencies own something like >20% of the total debt, which is fairly meaningless. Any money the fed makes on interest is transferred to the treasury. What do local and corporate debts have to do with this thread?

[Chong Ciao]

Just federal debt alone, is 16T, 1.1T is just what 7%? yeah that's what I consider tiny. Not to mention we have state and municipal debts, that has already cause a number of municipality to declare bankruptcy. This is just government debt. US companies have another 40T of corporate debt.

It's >25% of foreign-owned debt. The Fed and other US agencies own something like >20% of the total debt, which is fairly meaningless. Any money the fed makes on interest is transferred to the treasury. What do local and corporate debts have to do with this thread?

the state built bridges for the homeless and fema camps for those who "occupy" and guantanamos for those who cried for "change"
yes we can ! but first lets bomb Iran
you elect Ron Paul or your empire is gone

[kokojie]

Just federal debt alone, is 16T, 1.1T is just what 7%? yeah that's what I consider tiny. Not to mention we have state and municipal debts, that has already cause a number of municipality to declare bankruptcy. This is just government debt. US companies have another 40T of corporate debt.

It's >25% of foreign-owned debt. The Fed and other US agencies own something like >20% of the total debt, which is fairly meaningless. Any money the fed makes on interest is transferred to the treasury. What do local and corporate debts have to do with this thread?

I was responding to someone's claim that "China owns most of US". Which is inaccurate since China owns just 7% of federal debt, which is tiny. Plus, federal debt itself is tiny when compared to state+municipal+corporate debt.

[SgtSpike]

Another interesting thing to think about is what would happen to consumer-level debts denominated in USD if the USD did indeed collapse?  If USD was worthless, then I could buy it up by the bucketloads and pay off my house quickly.  Or, would the banks attempt to convert the loans into something else (even though I don't think that would be contractually possible)?

[nobbynobbynoob]

Another interesting thing to think about is what would happen to consumer-level debts denominated in USD if the USD did indeed collapse?  If USD was worthless, then I could buy it up by the bucketloads and pay off my house quickly.  Or, would the banks attempt to convert the loans into something else (even though I don't think that would be contractually possible)?

Great question. In essence, as your post alludes, hyperinflation ($$$ collapse) is debt default by the back door.