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Author Topic: hodlmybtc speculation thread  (Read 6917 times)
hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 02, 2015, 05:51:29 PM
 #21

I didn't advise anyone to short and I'm not a huge fan of shorting BTC myself but after 269 a correction was definately due so I put in a smallish short on OKCoin Futures to at least put a little bit of money where my mouth is Smiley

Other 13 contracts still short, almost got hit, settlement in 14 hours tho so I'll probably try to close it before settlement.

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July 02, 2015, 08:25:15 PM
 #22

It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price.
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July 03, 2015, 02:28:20 PM
 #23

It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price.

Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash!
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July 03, 2015, 03:47:46 PM
 #24

It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price.

Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash!

Bears are becoming rare and desperate in these parts.
hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 03, 2015, 04:19:56 PM
 #25

Added some more shorts yesterday when I saw we couldn't go higher than 257, most of them are closed in profit, only have a few contracts short left in quarterly futures.



Waiting for the final dip to ~250, have my buy orders set, after that I'm full bull again  Grin

It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price.

Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash!

Bears are becoming rare and desperate in these parts.

Yeah posts like those are getting really desperate, I mean, if you aren't paid to post here and are such a Bitcoin skeptic, wtf you're doing here?
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July 03, 2015, 04:33:43 PM
 #26

It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price.

if you look at the long term price, and i mean real long term (5 years or more away from now) then even $500 or $1000 won't matter. by that time we'll know where bitcoin stands. or a lot less people will use it, or we will see global adoption increased significantly.
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July 03, 2015, 04:51:56 PM
 #27

Your prediction seems to be nice, inspiring and in a way motivating. I hope things go at the same pace as they are, and it would be so nice to know how our investments have shaped into much more than an investment, but a real functioning, well adopted currency used by billions of people. I hope that day comes soon, and I hope old timers don't lose their patience and give up Smiley
hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 03, 2015, 06:45:47 PM
 #28

I decided to make this a speculation thread instead of just 1 prediction.

It won't be limited to BTC, as I also trade a bit on 1broker since recently. It's great and easy to trade forex/commodities/stocks with BTC, feel free to join under me: https://1broker.com/m/r.php?i=3150 (if this isn't allowed please remove it or let me know mods).

I'm currently shorting Oil (CL!1) from 56.55, chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL1!/rxww67Ww

Also shorting EUR/USD, bearish divergence on the hourly chart and 9MA/20MA crossing down, chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/tSGpAKt2

More to come soonishTM  Grin
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July 03, 2015, 07:21:35 PM
 #29

Added some more shorts yesterday when I saw we couldn't go higher than 257, most of them are closed in profit, only have a few contracts short left in quarterly futures.



Waiting for the final dip to ~250, have my buy orders set, after that I'm full bull again  Grin

It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price.

Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash!

Bears are becoming rare and desperate in these parts.

Yeah posts like those are getting really desperate, I mean, if you aren't paid to post here and are such a Bitcoin skeptic, wtf you're doing here?

Can I ask what GUI is that? i cant recognize that exchange's order list, and it seems like it tells you the gains that you make and so on, which is pretty cool.
hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 03, 2015, 07:54:53 PM
 #30

Added some more shorts yesterday when I saw we couldn't go higher than 257, most of them are closed in profit, only have a few contracts short left in quarterly futures.



Waiting for the final dip to ~250, have my buy orders set, after that I'm full bull again  Grin

It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price.

Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash!

Bears are becoming rare and desperate in these parts.

Yeah posts like those are getting really desperate, I mean, if you aren't paid to post here and are such a Bitcoin skeptic, wtf you're doing here?

Can I ask what GUI is that? i cant recognize that exchange's order list, and it seems like it tells you the gains that you make and so on, which is pretty cool.

It's okcoin.com.

Yeah it's pretty neat but some things are a bit weird still, also sometimes you get errors in chinese or something but overall it's ok.

I wouldn't advise having a big % of your coins in an exchange ofcourse, maybe especially on OKCoin, there are a lot of rumors that it will be the next Gox.

As always you should do your own due diligence and never send any money to an exchange for a longer period than you can't afford to lose.
hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 03, 2015, 09:02:00 PM
 #31

A bad day for Greek citizens:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3c0ytq/greek_banks_prepare_plan_to_raid_deposits_to/

This is WAY worse than the Cyprus situation  Undecided
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July 03, 2015, 09:41:50 PM
 #32

A bad day for Greek citizens:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3c0ytq/greek_banks_prepare_plan_to_raid_deposits_to/

This is WAY worse than the Cyprus situation  Undecided

€8000 is being suggested as the threshold for the deposit haircuts. Supposedly all Euro denominated deposit accounts have a €100, 000 guarantee. The Greek people will lose their shit if that actually happens, or at least those that still have more than that much left in a bank account. That could destroy the country, and possibly bring the warzone in Greece's backyard a little closer to Europe's backyard (North Africa & Middle East are, of course, very nearby to Greece). Scary stuff

Vires in numeris
hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 05, 2015, 07:45:55 PM
Last edit: July 05, 2015, 09:03:16 PM by hodlmybtc
 #33

The next 24 hours are critical TM

4H looking beautiful:



A bad day for Greek citizens:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3c0ytq/greek_banks_prepare_plan_to_raid_deposits_to/

This is WAY worse than the Cyprus situation  Undecided

€8000 is being suggested as the threshold for the deposit haircuts. Supposedly all Euro denominated deposit accounts have a €100, 000 guarantee. The Greek people will lose their shit if that actually happens, or at least those that still have more than that much left in a bank account. That could destroy the country, and possibly bring the warzone in Greece's backyard a little closer to Europe's backyard (North Africa & Middle East are, of course, very nearby to Greece). Scary stuff

Yeah it won't end well, also stock markets are probably going to crash within 1 year and probably (way) earlier.
hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 07, 2015, 02:53:10 AM
 #34

The last couple days have been great for BTC, unfortunately I closed my long yesterday before I went to sleep and when I woke up the price was like $8 higher, also got stopped out a lot today.

However I do expect a decent pullback now, the daily chart is looking pretty bad short term, the last daily candle close was a bearish shooting star, we have double bearish divergence now on the Ultimate Oscillator and the RSI and tough resistance at 280 and the 200EMA.

I believe we're still quite bullish and the MSM is pumping BTC quite a bit with the Greece situation.

For this reason I will place my bids a little higher, somewhere between 265 and 262 which are the 0.5 and 0.618 fib retracements from the rise from ~252 to ~279.

Definately no shorting at this moment, was thinking a small short near 280 but unfortunately my balls weren't big enough and the FOMO seemed very real.

By the way all prices are Bitfinex prices, I trade on OKCoin at the moment so for futures the prices are higher ofcourse.

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July 07, 2015, 04:11:53 PM
 #35

It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price.

Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash!

Bears are becoming rare and desperate in these parts.

I meant the price will be higher if bitcoin gets used more.
hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 07, 2015, 07:54:58 PM
 #36

Short on EURUSD, did a long earlier, stop loss is a little higher but didnt adjust it on the chart.



I'm also short on oil from ~56.5 and took 50% profit, I'm going to add a new short in here too, target maybe lower 2015 lows.
hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 07, 2015, 10:38:55 PM
 #37

Setting my bids lower, 258-260, looking pretty bearish at the moment.
hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 13, 2015, 04:11:03 AM
Last edit: July 13, 2015, 04:53:27 AM by hodlmybtc
 #38

Edit: closed 75% 100% of my BTC short at a small profit, someone kept adding in buys at 305 at Finex over and over, will be watching closely.

Small short, looking toppish for now, have small stop loss in case bulls FOMO anyway.

Will close my short around ~295, will see how the market reacts then probably go long again when there is a good opportunity.

Ugly bearish divergences on the daily chart, RSI heavily overbought, warning sign on Godmode.



Also short LTC, USDCAD, SP500, DOW and oil.

Long on Monero:

XMR breaking out, bid side still pretty low and lol the guys who were selling it down in to zero bids.

It seems the guy with 14k wall is scaring everyone to sell in to his bids.

Would be epic if some buys it all and fucks him over.



Edit: closed 75% 100% of my BTC short at a small profit, someone kept adding in buys at 305 at Finex over and over, will be watching closely.
hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 13, 2015, 08:40:52 PM
 #39

Very annoying OKcoin DDOS again, removed most of my funds there now.

After I closed my short I opened a small long because there was such heavy buying at $305, then the DDOS happened and price dropped $55 margin calling everyone...

Anyways with the rest I have left on OKC I'm doing a long now, hidden bullish divergences on the 4H, this correction was definately due and we're still trending up strong.

Ask walls on Finex have been removed and bid walls have been added.

hodlmybtc (OP)
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July 14, 2015, 08:07:04 PM
 #40

After closing my long I opened a new one around $290, target $297, stop loss $287.5.

Think we will break up out of this triangle, will probably open another long after in another dip.

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