hodlmybtc speculation thread

[hodlmybtc]

Got stopped out on my long, did a small short after so I made back a little, all good.

4H 125 EMA didn't hold, let's see if the 200 EMA on the 4H and daily will hold.

I'm setting buy orders between 272 and 275, stop loss 270, same targets as last time, new resistance at 286 so if we break that with good volume and not being overbought I'm looking for a long too. If 270 fails it's pretty likely we will see 265 and it's not a bad idea to short the 270 break to 265.

Daily with hidden bull divs:


4H regular bull div showing momentum to the upside on UO, other indicators look like bottoming to in W shapes:


1H showing some hidden bearish divergences, indicators making higher highs without the price making higher highs (couple $ at least), so there is some room for more down. 2H willy and godmode are near the same levels as they were at 298:

[RyNinDaCleM]

Yep, Daily divs will get bigger, the 4hr will get one more compounded divergence and the hourly will get regular bull since it's in overbought territory now.

Let's get it over with!

[hodlmybtc]

Yep, Daily divs will get bigger, the 4hr will get one more compounded divergence and the hourly will get regular bull since it's in overbought territory now.

Let's get it over with!

Seems the dip is over... for now...

As usual price rallied when I was asleep, cautiously entered a small long around 284, SL 282.

[hodlmybtc]

Closed my long at breakeven just before it broke down a bit.

Potential bullish cypher pattern on the 1H:


Also hidden bullish divergence forming, if the divergence gets bigger this also gives more strength to the pattern.

Entry 278.50, SL 275.50, target depends on how deep D goes, but my targets are 50%, 61.8% and 76.4% retracements from point C to D, D can't go below point X (~276.2).

[Morecoin Freeman]

Closed my long at breakeven just before it broke down a bit.

I'd get back in right about now. The price bottomed out already.
Best of luck. (BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $281.12)

[Fakhoury]

I don't know if I asked you this before or not hodl, what is your medium and long term sentiment ?

[hodlmybtc]

Closed my long at breakeven just before it broke down a bit.

I'd get back in right about now. The price bottomed out already.
Best of luck. (BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $281.12)

I'm not going back long yet, I'm waiting for the pattern to complete or else see what the market does the coming days.

By this I mean with margin trading by the way, I held my coins through $160 crash.

I'm on 20x so I try to get an entry as good as possible, this also greatly reduced the chance of being margin called.

I don't know if I asked you this before or not hodl, what is your medium and long term sentiment ?

I think you've asked it before but I'm bullish

Edit: I also stumbled upon "moon phases" in trading, at first I thought it was a joke but it really seems to influence things in markets.

The Royal Bank of Schotland did a study with some impressive results, for example:

The similar behaviour is observed in other markets. Figure 2 presents the studyof S&P 500 index versus moon phases for the period since 1928 till 2010. Having invested £1,000 in S&P in 1928, by now would outcome in holding £63,864 worth portfolio, while by implementing the proposed moon trading strategy, the value of portfolio would have been £1,502,689.

Full study: http://www.scribd.com/doc/38095213/RBS-Equity-Special-2010-07-07

It seems to have an (pretty big) impact on BTC it seems, a new moon or a full moon seems to signal a (short-term) reversal, it's pretty accurate within 1-2 days for the last 6-7 months:

[Morecoin Freeman]

I'm on 20x so I try to get an entry as good as possible, this also greatly reduced the chance of being margin called.

Ok, fair enough, I did not know this.

In the short term I do not see your entry get better, but you have to be cautious indeed.
You do not want the market to move against you at 20x margin.

[hodlmybtc]

Looks like we're breaking out of this ascending triangle and cup and handle (both bullish patterns) within 36 hours, since we're in this uprending channel dumps have retraced pretty quickly.

I'm setting some bids at the bottom of the ascending triangle with a small stop loss, will add in more when we break out of the ascending triangle, cup and handle and the downtrend line from 316.

If we break down out of the ascending triangle I'm placing bids around 278 which was my target entry if the cypher pattern completes. Will also go long if the trendline from 219 holds. This trendline was (barely) broken on logarithmic charts but not much happened after and price is now back above it.

I give the green scenario 55% chance, orange 20%, red-green 15%, red-red 10%. These numbers are pulled out of my rabbit's ass so do what it whatever you want

[hodlmybtc]

Got filled at quarterlies at an average of 292.67, didn't expect spot to go this low and expected quarterlies to panic harder, but in the end quarterlies got down to the price I wanted so it's all good.

The (small) ascending triangle broke down but there hasn't been hard selling so far, will be watching closely and will try to close my long around breakeven if we don't go up.

[mrhelpful]

no matter how much technical analysis Id look at, id probably going crazy.

esp when the movements prices 1 week later are around the same price of $10 difference. This is just me, but I never see it like every hour basis..

[farting_shot]

The days of bubbles and crashes are behind us. We are in a new territory called a long lull, where prices stay within a narrow range, no amount of good/bad news seem to affect the market too much. I call it the blah-land.

[hodlmybtc]

Closed my long for now thanks to my alarms still in profit, also did a small short, pretty big sell on Finex and China is slowly coming down too, will close the short pretty fast.

Edit: closed short small profit

[hodlmybtc]

Long on Monero:

XMR breaking out, bid side still pretty low and lol the guys who were selling it down in to zero bids.

It seems the guy with 14k wall is scaring everyone to sell in to his bids.

Would be epic if some buys it all and fucks him over.

Update:

Some nice buying and volume going on, currently at resistance so there's a good chance to buy lower the coming days, nothing is guaranteed ofcourse

Next resistance around 0.00268.

[conspirosphere.tk]

I call it the blah-land.

where price stays within a meh-band.

[hodlmybtc]

Insane, whales not done buying yet either.

[Eastwind]

The price is still stable within a band, so there is no worries.

[Wexlike]

Insane, whales not done buying yet either.

Great catch. Are you exiting your position or are you still in the train?

[hodlmybtc]

Great catch. Are you exiting your position or are you still in the train?

Still in ofcourse, this is just the beginning, I'm going on vacation in 2 weeks so I'll sell a little bit before then to have some spending money and also set some asks while I'm away.

I however do believe that there is a good chance XMR is going to reach a higher high (>430k) than the previous rally so I will sell some around at that range but probably not more than 25% of my coins, all depending on the market at that time.

I'm also in a margin long and will close probably close half around 300k and other half around 350k, probably to open again lower at these resistance points.

Also there is a part of my coins that I will never sell if Monero keeps reaching more awareness, development growth and a higher market cap (small P&D's excluded).

[hodlmybtc]

Small long 268, stop loss 265, target 274 (38.4% retrace). After that I will probably take a small break from trading BTC until the market paints a clearer picture where it wants to go.

15 min bull divs in heavily oversold territory on multiple timeframes.



If we break 265 then I'll open a short to around 255.