Bets of Bitcoin: Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013

[Hasimir]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=688

The black (and grey) market site will be closed permanently by 12:01am UTC, 1/7/2013 (or 7/1/2013 for Americans).

It does not matter whether it is shutdown by law enforcement (DEA, FBI, whatever) or whether Silk Road staff shut it down and returned any funds owed to users or even if they absconded with whatever BTC they had left in the site when they ran. The site moving to a different hidden/darknet address does not count as shutting the site down. Shutting the site down means all operations have ceased.


Opening date: Sept. 19, 2012
Bet deadline: June 29, 2013 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: July 1, 2013 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Other

I expect this one will simultaneously amuse and annoy people.

[FreeMoney]

What if it closes permanently and reopens? Or closes temporarily forever? Terms should be something like, "SR will be closed on June 1st and July 1st 2013" or July and AUG.

[Hasimir]

What if it closes permanently and reopens? Or closes temporarily forever? Terms should be something like, "SR will be closed on June 1st and July 1st 2013" or July and AUG.

The first question is a good one, but the second seem like an oxymoron (although I get what you mean, an outage intended to be temporary which became permanent).

Since the Bets of Bitcoin site operators are the arbiters, I guess they'll wait for the deadline, see if it's up and if it's not whether there's any news about it.

If it closes "permanently" then reopens within the timeframe of the bet, I'd say it isn't closed.  If it closes "permanently" during the betting period and then reopens after the bet is resolved, then I don't think there's anything that can be done.  Especially if the Silk Road operators throw some coins on the bet.  Although I suspect they make more on their own site than they could on this bet.

I think the Silk Road operators will ignore the bet, but Silk Road users might not.  I'm expecting hate mail since I posted the bet here and also blogged about it.

[FreeMoney]

I really want a prediction market.

For example it could have as propositions like this for every month. People would participate way more because they wouldn't be locked in to maturity. And then we could use it as a good indicator of what we can count on.

[Hasimir]

I really want a prediction market.

For example it could have as propositions like this for every month. People would participate way more because they wouldn't be locked in to maturity. And then we could use it as a good indicator of what we can count on.

That sounds like a pretty good idea, actually.  Although the same can already be done on Bets of Bitcoin just by selecting bets that have a timeframe of one month or less.

[FreeMoney]

I really want a prediction market.

For example it could have as propositions like this for every month. People would participate way more because they wouldn't be locked in to maturity. And then we could use it as a good indicator of what we can count on.

That sounds like a pretty good idea, actually.  Although the same can already be done on Bets of Bitcoin just by selecting bets that have a timeframe of one month or less.

No, I want people to be able to participate in bets that end years from now for just hours if they want. Gotta be trade-able.

[caveden]

he, whenever (if ever) the owners of SR decide to shut down, they could earn some money with bets like these.

[Hasimir]

I really want a prediction market.

For example it could have as propositions like this for every month. People would participate way more because they wouldn't be locked in to maturity. And then we could use it as a good indicator of what we can count on.

That sounds like a pretty good idea, actually.  Although the same can already be done on Bets of Bitcoin just by selecting bets that have a timeframe of one month or less.

No, I want people to be able to participate in bets that end years from now for just hours if they want. Gotta be trade-able.

Ah, that would be tricky and definitely require a fair bit of effort to implement.  Still, it would be interesting.

[Hasimir]

he, whenever (if ever) the owners of SR decide to shut down, they could earn some money with bets like these.

Only if the margin on the betting was large enough to make it worthwhile.  I don't think all the bets combined on Bets of Bitcoin would be enough to get the attention of the Silk Road people, not if that academic research (IIRC Wired and Ars Technica reported on it, but I'm too lazy to dig up URLs) on their turnover is accurate.

[Explodicle]

Likewise, the US government could use this to secretly pay SR to close.

You can use Open Transactions to run your own prediction market right now, and those prediction shares would be tradeable.

[Hasimir]

Likewise, the US government could use this to secretly pay SR to close.

Heh.  As funny as that would be, the massive size of the bet for the topic given what other statements are receiving may possibly give the whole idea away.

You can use Open Transactions to run your own prediction market right now, and those prediction shares would be tradeable.

That's a very interesting idea.  Have you taken the idea any further than what you stated in that post?

[Explodicle]

You can use Open Transactions to run your own prediction market right now, and those prediction shares would be tradeable.

That's a very interesting idea.  Have you taken the idea any further than what you stated in that post?

Not very far, I've just been playing around with it on my laptop. IMHO Open Transactions isn't quite mature yet, so I've just been donating towards its development. Eventually I'll either organize or pay towards a bounty to make an OT-based DAGGRE clone or something.
EDIT 2013-03-02: actually it couldn't be an exact DAGGRE clone because they generate "points" on the fly, in order to set buy/sell prices based on a preset function. An OT-based prediction market would be similar, but users would create the buy/sell orders.

If anyone else wants to see this happen sooner, then defend your freedom by funding Open Transactions! Every little bit counts.
1NtTPVVjDsUfDWybS4BwvHpG2pdS9RnYyQ

[Hasimir]

You can use Open Transactions to run your own prediction market right now, and those prediction shares would be tradeable.

That's a very interesting idea.  Have you taken the idea any further than what you stated in that post?

Not very far, I've just been playing around with it on my laptop. IMHO Open Transactions isn't quite mature yet, so I've just been donating towards its development. Eventually I'll either organize or pay towards a bounty to make an OT-based DAGGRE clone or something.

Ah, okay.  I noticed it was written in Ruby, so I can't really help there.  I'll have to try to remember to keep an eye on it, though.

[fellowtraveler]

OT is written in C++.

The API is available in a variety of languages, on most platforms.

[Hasimir]

OT is written in C++.

The API is available in a variety of languages, on most platforms.

Ah, my C is very crap and my C++ is worse.  Clearly I must've been looking at the API stuff.

[Intueri]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=688

The black (and grey) market site will be closed permanently by 12:01am UTC, 1/7/2013 (or 7/1/2013 for Americans).

It does not matter whether it is shutdown by law enforcement (DEA, FBI, whatever) or whether Silk Road staff shut it down and returned any funds owed to users or even if they absconded with whatever BTC they had left in the site when they ran. The site moving to a different hidden/darknet address does not count as shutting the site down. Shutting the site down means all operations have ceased.


Opening date: Sept. 19, 2012
Bet deadline: June 29, 2013 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: July 1, 2013 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Other

I expect this one will simultaneously amuse and annoy people.

Ill take this bet for 10 BTC To Any Takers. In favor of it not shutting down.

[Hasimir]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=688

The black (and grey) market site will be closed permanently by 12:01am UTC, 1/7/2013 (or 7/1/2013 for Americans).

It does not matter whether it is shutdown by law enforcement (DEA, FBI, whatever) or whether Silk Road staff shut it down and returned any funds owed to users or even if they absconded with whatever BTC they had left in the site when they ran. The site moving to a different hidden/darknet address does not count as shutting the site down. Shutting the site down means all operations have ceased.


Opening date: Sept. 19, 2012
Bet deadline: June 29, 2013 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: July 1, 2013 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Other

I expect this one will simultaneously amuse and annoy people.

Ill take this bet for 10 BTC To Any Takers. In favor of it not shutting down.

That's easy, go to the bet page and place your bet.

[Zedster]

Just curious was this bet made just to insight interest to this thread or is there basis for a possible shutdown of SR?

[Hasimir]

Just curious was this bet made just to insight interest to this thread or is there basis for a possible shutdown of SR?

The bet statement was made because I wanted to add something amusing to Bets of Bitcoin, but I have no information regarding the running of the site.  This thread was started afterwards to draw attention to the bet, not the other way around.