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Author Topic: Bad days ahead for the European single currency  (Read 2679 times)
countryfree
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July 05, 2015, 06:10:07 PM
 #1

Everybody talks about Greece, and there are plenty other topics on this board, but only a few millions people are concerned. So let's not talk about Greece.

I want to raise the bigger issue here, which is the European single currency. Several hundreds millions of people are using it every day, and it's very, very likely that the European currency will go down against the US dollar, the Swiss Franc and BTC. Do you share my concern?

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July 05, 2015, 06:27:40 PM
 #2

Correct me if i'm wrong, but shouldn't it do exactly the opposite?
Given the fact that EU is now "loosing" Greece, which is nothing but a dead weight; shouldn't the EUR get stronger, since the overall economy of EU will be stronger w/o them. Seams logical,right?

cheers
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July 05, 2015, 06:34:22 PM
 #3

Correct me if i'm wrong, but shouldn't it do exactly the opposite?
Given the fact that EU is now "loosing" Greece, which is nothing but a dead weight; shouldn't the EUR get stronger, since the overall economy of EU will be stronger w/o them. Seams logical,right?

cheers

Probably, Greece is a big liability, every creditor will be affected, some more than others, but the Euro itself probably will get stronger as more stable the eurozone economy get without Greece.

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July 05, 2015, 06:40:07 PM
 #4

Correct me if i'm wrong, but shouldn't it do exactly the opposite?
Given the fact that EU is now "loosing" Greece, which is nothing but a dead weight; shouldn't the EUR get stronger, since the overall economy of EU will be stronger w/o them. Seams logical,right?

cheers
Not really, it's a double edged sword. Sure, you get said "dead weight" but your reputation as an institution whose ultimate goal is a solid unity of nations it basically means you fucked up on this core principle. And bad reputation always means bad news economically. We'll see what happens, it seems the NO is winning.
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July 05, 2015, 06:41:40 PM
 #5

Correct me if i'm wrong, but shouldn't it do exactly the opposite?
Given the fact that EU is now "loosing" Greece, which is nothing but a dead weight; shouldn't the EUR get stronger, since the overall economy of EU will be stronger w/o them. Seams logical,right?

cheers

Losing Greece? It's not so easy. It cannot happen overnight. The NO referendum will bring even more instability that we have now. There are treaties, and several countries may want to kick Greece out of EU (or at least the € zone) as fast as possible, but it can take months, if not years.

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July 05, 2015, 06:46:03 PM
 #6

Eu does not need to kick Greece out. If the ECB decides not to increase ELA (which is 100% sure) no more money will come out of ATM's.
Since the governments bank accounts are also empty how are they going to pay salaries, pensions and medicare ? They won't so the only option is to print money themselves.

The only thing left for EU is to start sending food supplies in the coming months so the poor people won't starve. I bet the Greek government didn't tell the OXI voters that.
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July 05, 2015, 06:50:10 PM
 #7

I want to raise the bigger issue here, which is the European single currency. Several hundreds millions of people are using it every day, and it's very, very likely that the European currency will go down against the US dollar, the Swiss Franc and BTC. Do you share my concern?


No. Why would it go down against the dollar and bitcoin? The Euro seems to be doing fine. I would like bitcoin to become some sort of unofficial world currency to be used all across the globe. I don't think there would be anything wrong with a one world currency as long as it was decentralized.
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July 05, 2015, 06:58:34 PM
 #8

Correct me if i'm wrong, but shouldn't it do exactly the opposite?
Given the fact that EU is now "loosing" Greece, which is nothing but a dead weight; shouldn't the EUR get stronger, since the overall economy of EU will be stronger w/o them. Seams logical,right?

cheers

this is really tricky..on one hand, Euro should go stronger, because they will not have this big steel Greece ball chained to their legs, in other hand it is really big hit to EU and own currency Euro. All will just depends, how ECB will react to this..
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July 05, 2015, 07:08:22 PM
 #9

Bitcoin is already going up.
This is the advantage of being a 24h market.
Tomorrow is the opening for currencies exchange markets.

We'll see.

In the meanwhile BTC UP!

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July 05, 2015, 07:08:47 PM
 #10

Soon usd - eur parity and from there hell will break loose for eur.



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July 05, 2015, 07:35:58 PM
 #11

Soon usd - eur parity and from there hell will break loose for eur.
Do you think so?
It sounds too early for that only for news from greece.
Remember the greek economy is only the 2% of the whole EU

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countryfree
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July 06, 2015, 12:22:41 AM
 #12

Soon usd - eur parity and from there hell will break loose for eur.
Do you think so?
It sounds too early for that only for news from greece.
Remember the greek economy is only the 2% of the whole EU

This isn't the issue. The problem is that the Greeks have said with the referendum that they don't want to pay their debts. So the question is who pay? Will the other European countries pay in place of the Greeks, writing it down at a huge loss, or will the ECB simple print more money, instantly pushing the € down against all other currencies?

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July 06, 2015, 02:14:08 AM
 #13

How did Greece arrive at this ridiculous situation in the first place?

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July 06, 2015, 02:54:02 AM
 #14

How did Greece arrive at this ridiculous situation in the first place?

Overly generous benefits for Gov't workers (including pensions) is a major factor in Greece running up huge debts.

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July 06, 2015, 02:59:30 AM
 #15

Everybody talks about Greece, and there are plenty other topics on this board, but only a few millions people are concerned. So let's not talk about Greece.

I want to raise the bigger issue here, which is the European single currency. Several hundreds millions of people are using it every day, and it's very, very likely that the European currency will go down against the US dollar, the Swiss Franc and BTC. Do you share my concern?

This is probably the same reason England did not want to adopt it in the first place. Their currency is more powerful and they didn't want to be in the same group as the EU, because if one goes down they all suffer unless one fronts the cash to bail them out.
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July 06, 2015, 03:03:37 AM
 #16

How did Greece arrive at this ridiculous situation in the first place?

Overly generous benefits for Gov't workers (including pensions) is a major factor in Greece running up huge debts.

What about corruption at the highest levels?

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July 06, 2015, 03:45:55 AM
 #17

Soon usd - eur parity and from there hell will break loose for eur.
Do you think so?
It sounds too early for that only for news from greece.
Remember the greek economy is only the 2% of the whole EU

This isn't the issue. The problem is that the Greeks have said with the referendum that they don't want to pay their debts. So the question is who pay? Will the other European countries pay in place of the Greeks, writing it down at a huge loss, or will the ECB simple print more money, instantly pushing the € down against all other currencies?
The Greece voted for no and don't want to pay the debt, leave European.  The priority for them is to pay the debt and try to find a way to get money to pay for them. How come do they still care about the pension cut and tax increases? They still care about their personal income. It is ridiculous. If one family run into deep debt, what they should do? The famility member should try to earn enough money and spend less to pay the debt firstly. How could they keep the moeny for themselft?

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July 06, 2015, 05:38:28 AM
 #18

Correct me if i'm wrong, but shouldn't it do exactly the opposite?
Given the fact that EU is now "loosing" Greece, which is nothing but a dead weight; shouldn't the EUR get stronger, since the overall economy of EU will be stronger w/o them. Seams logical,right?

cheers

That's also my opinion, if the EU (and Merkel) don't give in.  If they give in to Greece, I think the Euro can only go on a steep ride down, because it means that in the end, half of (southern) Europe, including France, will go deficit spending like hell, implying bailouts, and in the end, inflationary pressure.

However, if Merkel can keep strong, and force the Greeks out (even with a "good-bye bailout"), it would mean that the Euro is not for deficit spending sissies.  That would certainly be a point for a stronger Euro than with all that uncertainty about half-failed states and economies "backing" it.

The big problem is Spain, and Greece is its laboratory.  Spain is recovering slowly, but is still in huge problems.  If politically, the Podemos party wins the elections in september (which is the Spanish counterpart of the Greek Syriza), then an exit, or a debt relief of Spain would hurt European economies (especially Germany) much and much harder than the Greek case.   Probably it would make the whole Eurozone go broke, with only one option: inflate the Euro like hell to inflate away the huge debts. 

So everything should now be done to avoid that Spain goes Greece's way.  That's why one cannot be nice to Greece.  It would imply that going broke would pay off in the Eurozone.
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July 06, 2015, 05:39:50 AM
 #19

Soon usd - eur parity and from there hell will break loose for eur.
Do you think so?
It sounds too early for that only for news from greece.
Remember the greek economy is only the 2% of the whole EU

This isn't the issue. The problem is that the Greeks have said with the referendum that they don't want to pay their debts. So the question is who pay? Will the other European countries pay in place of the Greeks, writing it down at a huge loss, or will the ECB simple print more money, instantly pushing the € down against all other currencies?

Indeed, that's the question now.  And Greece is the small model for Spain.
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July 06, 2015, 05:41:55 AM
 #20

How did Greece arrive at this ridiculous situation in the first place?

By lying like hell (helped by Goldman-Sachs, whose European director was Draghi, which is now.... president of the ECB !!).

They had deficits in the 12-15 % and they declared 3 - 4 %.

(Euro rules imply that one shouldn't run a deficit larger than 3% without special permissions).
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