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Author Topic: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months  (Read 4612 times)
Hyena
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July 05, 2015, 07:59:54 PM
 #1

In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis.

270*16 = 4320




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July 05, 2015, 08:07:04 PM
 #2

In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis.

270*16 = 4320






Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price? Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ? Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section.

//sarcasm.

However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc).
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July 05, 2015, 08:08:32 PM
 #3

logarithmic price charts lie to you about the real price action picture.

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July 05, 2015, 08:12:12 PM
 #4

logarithmic price charts lie to you about the real price action picture.

Does not matter in this context. We are in green for the 5th week in a row and bitcoin has seen 16x increase in value in the past. Extrapolate and you will get the same results as I did. Btw, non-logarithmic charts lie even more.

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July 05, 2015, 08:17:15 PM
 #5

In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis.

270*16 = 4320





I used similar logic to make an 'insane' projection in February '13 (EDIT: incidentally very close to the "we are here" hyena drew above):

Assuming that the two boom patterns should be similar (i.e. the whole thing be a fractal) - then the second is still very far from the top, it still might grow maybe 10 times.

Exactly. In my opinion the current situation is at most a "small bubble", meaning that there can be a correction, but it's unlikely to be a deep one. To experience a "massive bubble" we would need to see the all time high broken and then panic buys from there. That is the point when it's smart to become skeptical.

there have been 3 "steps" in the 2011 runup to the bubble (from base of about $1):

  • the jump to $2
  • the jump to $4
  • the jump to $9

So the top of the current bubble is either 450, 225 or 100 depending what "jump" the current one is similar to.

I don't believe in this fractal stuff applying to markets somehow, though.

I clearly remember being ridiculed for putting such insanely high numbers, but I can't find the posts. Maybe deleted in shame.

So I'm with you, hyena, and we'll laugh last Wink

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jonald_fyookball
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July 05, 2015, 08:17:35 PM
 #6

logarithmic price charts lie to you about the real price action picture.

Does not matter in this context. We are in green for the 5th week in a row and bitcoin has seen 16x increase in value in the past. Extrapolate and you will get the same results as I did. Btw, non-logarithmic charts lie even more.

ok but you do realize we need more buying pressure to get to $4000 than we did to get to $1000.
we're talking multiple billions more in terms of the market cap which might mean tens of millions of dollars in trades.  It will happen,  but in four months??  don't know about that.

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July 05, 2015, 08:19:35 PM
 #7


Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price? Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ? Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section.

//sarcasm.

However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc).

I think Bitcoin ("capital B") is overdue for being repriced to something like 35-100 Billion USD.

Working backwards to coin price implies around ~2500-7000 USD/BTC.

Have fun with your silly linear models. Wink
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July 05, 2015, 08:52:14 PM
 #8

I suppose you bought at least 250 Bitcoin then? Because 250 BTC * $4000 = $1,000,000.
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July 05, 2015, 08:56:39 PM
 #9


Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price? Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ? Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section.

//sarcasm.

However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc).

I think Bitcoin ("capital B") is overdue for being repriced to something like 35-100 Billion USD.

Working backwards to coin price implies around ~2500-7000 USD/BTC.

Have fun with your silly linear models. Wink

You said your opinion and I said my opinion, where is the problem Grin? I didn't criticize anyone ... I criticized what he said. However thanks again for your opinion and have a great day.


Have fun you too with your silly linear models .
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July 05, 2015, 08:58:48 PM
 #10

I highly doubt that we are going to even come close to this. However, there is a slight possibility in case that something happens.
If Greece declares Bitcoin as its national currency then Bitcoin is going places. Although the odds aren't really in favor of this one.

It is impossible that a nation or government will declare bitcoin as its national currency, how they can control it? Only an anarchy can support bitcoin as currency not even a democracy.
Everything is possible. I never said that they would do it, nor that they could control it.

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redsn0w
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July 05, 2015, 09:00:43 PM
 #11

I highly doubt that we are going to even come close to this. However, there is a slight possibility in case that something happens.
If Greece declares Bitcoin as its national currency then Bitcoin is going places. Although the odds aren't really in favor of this one.

It is impossible that a nation or government will declare bitcoin as its national currency, how they can control it? Only an anarchy can support bitcoin as currency not even a democracy.
Ivanhoe
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July 05, 2015, 09:03:45 PM
 #12

I highly doubt that we are going to even come close to this. However, there is a slight possibility in case that something happens.
If Greece declares Bitcoin as its national currency then Bitcoin is going places. Although the odds aren't really in favor of this one.

It is impossible that a nation or government will declare bitcoin as its national currency, how they can control it? Only an anarchy can support bitcoin as currency not even a democracy.
Which is the strength of Bitcoin. Remember the power is with the people.

The separation between church and politics happened a while ago, it now is time for the separation between politics and money. 
jonald_fyookball
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July 05, 2015, 09:06:33 PM
 #13

I highly doubt that we are going to even come close to this. However, there is a slight possibility in case that something happens.
If Greece declares Bitcoin as its national currency then Bitcoin is going places. Although the odds aren't really in favor of this one.

It is impossible that a nation or government will declare bitcoin as its national currency, how they can control it? Only an anarchy can support bitcoin as currency not even a democracy.

it is not impossible because they don't need to control it.  In Panama, they use United States dollars and don't control it.

Hyena
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July 05, 2015, 09:52:06 PM
 #14

Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price?

I am seriously speculating and yes, we are in the speculation forum section, this is what we do here, all day every day.

Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ?

It doesn't matter what the price is if you need to transfer wealth. I personally don't need to buy a single bitcoin ever again but I'm more than sure that there are people willing to pay 4k for a bitcoin.

Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section.

//sarcasm.

WTF. Learn to use sarcasm.

However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc).

And you will become yet another duck fucker, bitter for selling their bitcoins at 500$ when the price has stabilized at 5000$.

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July 05, 2015, 10:17:10 PM
 #15

In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis.

270*16 = 4320





I used similar logic to make an 'insane' projection in February '13 (EDIT: incidentally very close to the "we are here" hyena drew above):

Assuming that the two boom patterns should be similar (i.e. the whole thing be a fractal) - then the second is still very far from the top, it still might grow maybe 10 times.

Exactly. In my opinion the current situation is at most a "small bubble", meaning that there can be a correction, but it's unlikely to be a deep one. To experience a "massive bubble" we would need to see the all time high broken and then panic buys from there. That is the point when it's smart to become skeptical.

there have been 3 "steps" in the 2011 runup to the bubble (from base of about $1):

  • the jump to $2
  • the jump to $4
  • the jump to $9

So the top of the current bubble is either 450, 225 or 100 depending what "jump" the current one is similar to.

I don't believe in this fractal stuff applying to markets somehow, though.

I clearly remember being ridiculed for putting such insanely high numbers, but I can't find the posts. Maybe deleted in shame.

So I'm with you, hyena, and we'll laugh last Wink


Just to mention this prediction from September 27, 2014:
Next spike $560,000 14 months from now
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July 05, 2015, 11:13:39 PM
 #16

I like the idea in opening post. Only thing I'd add is that time seems to be stretching out. The last bear correction from bubble peak took a lot longer to deflate than after previous bubbles. I can imagine next bubble peaking likewise stretched out in time.
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July 05, 2015, 11:52:09 PM
 #17

Sounds about right. I for one will be very happy when we break the last ATH, if only because we will get to flush out a whole bunch of whiners from this forum.

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July 05, 2015, 11:58:09 PM
 #18

Sounds about right. I for one will be very happy when we break the last ATH, if only because we will get to flush out a whole bunch of whiners from this forum.

They'll find something new to whine about. And it will bring a fresh generation of whiners who'll be ready to whine when the next lull pops along. It'll be a never ending cycle but regardless of what they get up to in future, it would be very nice to put this one to bed.

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July 06, 2015, 12:56:06 AM
 #19

In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis.

270*16 = 4320






Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price? Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ? Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section.

//sarcasm.

However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc).

Who wants to pay 30k for a golden 1 kg bar? I bet your mother opens her legs for 0.1g gold.
Raize
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July 06, 2015, 01:22:19 AM
 #20

$4k in 24 months is more believable. We won't see similar timeframes as previous jumps, even if the scale is generally the same.

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