Is it even worth it to buy/order an ASIC single now?

[opentoe]

After reading the speculations on what is going to happen it seems the only people that will benefit from the new ASIC hardware is the first users to get the hardware and of course the mega/large mining ASIC rigs out there. I've seen no good news about a guy that just wants to run a single rig at his house to have some fun, make a little BTC to pay off the rig...but it seems that poor guy won't even get a return good enough to even pay off the rig (only $1300) itself. Does everyone agree with this? I mean its like me buying an Nvidia GTX 480 single video card right now. It just won't make any money even with it running 24/7. Since I'm middle class here I can't afford to spend $1300 on something that may not do anything. I wish there were guarantees here....

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[Severian]

I've seen no good news about a guy that just wants to run a single rig at his house to have some fun, make a little BTC to pay off the rig.

I think the days of the hobbyist miner are gone. The next generation of miners are going to be a more serious lot. Their motivation will be to get some bitcoin and to add muscle to the network. Bitcoin's going pro, it seems.

[SgtSpike]

No guarantees anymore.  No more easy money.  No more paying off computer hardware by mining.  Sorry, you missed out on those boats.

If I hadn't already preordered, I'd be waiting on the sidelines right now until I saw how quickly BFL makes it through the preorder list.  If they made it through quickly enough, and there was still enough profit in it to pay off the unit in 6 months or less, I'd probably buy.  Otherwise, I'd probably stay out of the mining game, and instead, buy up a few bitcoins here and there, and wait for those to appreciate.

[nobbynobbynoob]

Surely, profitability is a function both of the network difficulty level and also the exchange rate if you're cashing out into fiat immediately. Obviously, early adopters are rewarded for having taken the risk of the early plunge.

If I could dig up the $30k I'd be seriously tempted by the ASIC minirig. Somehow, though, I can't see any bank lending me that.

[SgtSpike]

Surely, profitability is a function both of the network difficulty level and also the exchange rate if you're cashing out into fiat immediately. Obviously, early adopters are rewarded for having taken the risk of the early plunge.

If I could dig up the $30k I'd be seriously tempted by the ASIC minirig. Somehow, though, I can't see any bank lending me that.

I tried - they asked what the loan would be for, I explained mining, and they promptly sent back a professionally courteous email saying my laon request had been denied.   

[Stephen Gornick]

I wish there were guarantees here....

These ASICs are special-purpose, bleeding-edge technology that is depending the success of a paradigm-shifting innovation -- decentralized digital currency.

If you want guarantees, consider looking elsewhere.

Otherwise, I'd probably stay out of the mining game, and instead, buy up a few bitcoins here and there, and wait for those to appreciate.

Yup.

In 70 days, the block reward is going to drop from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, or about $43,000 per day worth of bitcoins issued at the current exchange rate.

Competing for those $43K worth are existing GPU miners, existing FPGA miners, new FPGA miners (and maybe a couple new GPU miners where electricity is cheap or free) , and a few ... well, more than a few ... perhaps a ton, of ASIC miners:

 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison#ASICs

Nobody knows whose will be first.

[nobbynobbynoob]

If I could dig up the $30k I'd be seriously tempted by the ASIC minirig. Somehow, though, I can't see any bank lending me that.

I tried - they asked what the loan would be for, I explained mining, and they promptly sent back a professionally courteous email saying my laon request had been denied.   

I thought about this, and in essence it amounts to requesting a loan for de-facto gambling on a commodity market. I still love Bitcoin though and am seriously contemplating investing in a few BFL single SCs. I even spoke to Josh briefly at the London conference and he seems ok - then again, his sales pitch was hardly going to start "sorry but BFL still sucks at delivering on time", so it's not a straightforward issue. Anyway, given that I'm a bit of a n00b, and that my copy of Ubuntu 12.04 isn't even bloody installing on my lappie right now, I need to keep a cool-headed stock of everything!

[opentoe]

If I could dig up the $30k I'd be seriously tempted by the ASIC minirig. Somehow, though, I can't see any bank lending me that.

I tried - they asked what the loan would be for, I explained mining, and they promptly sent back a professionally courteous email saying my laon request had been denied.   

I thought about this, and in essence it amounts to requesting a loan for de-facto gambling on a commodity market. I still love Bitcoin though and am seriously contemplating investing in a few BFL single SCs. I even spoke to Josh briefly at the London conference and he seems ok - then again, his sales pitch was hardly going to start "sorry but BFL still sucks at delivering on time", so it's not a straightforward issue. Anyway, given that I'm a bit of a n00b, and that my copy of Ubuntu 12.04 isn't even bloody installing on my lappie right now, I need to keep a cool-headed stock of everything!

But why grab singles when you probably won't even be able to pay them off in a decent time frame? I only heard about bitcoin a few months ago so I missed out on all the reaping or I should say raping that went on to accumulate coin. I can live with that but like someone else wrote it seems like only the big boys will earn enough to stay in the game. I think they should open up a new type area/network for the hobby guys, just our network tied into the main big boy network so we can all get our noses wet.

[SgtSpike]

If I could dig up the $30k I'd be seriously tempted by the ASIC minirig. Somehow, though, I can't see any bank lending me that.

I tried - they asked what the loan would be for, I explained mining, and they promptly sent back a professionally courteous email saying my laon request had been denied.   

I thought about this, and in essence it amounts to requesting a loan for de-facto gambling on a commodity market. I still love Bitcoin though and am seriously contemplating investing in a few BFL single SCs. I even spoke to Josh briefly at the London conference and he seems ok - then again, his sales pitch was hardly going to start "sorry but BFL still sucks at delivering on time", so it's not a straightforward issue. Anyway, given that I'm a bit of a n00b, and that my copy of Ubuntu 12.04 isn't even bloody installing on my lappie right now, I need to keep a cool-headed stock of everything!

But why grab singles when you probably won't even be able to pay them off in a decent time frame? I only heard about bitcoin a few months ago so I missed out on all the reaping or I should say raping that went on to accumulate coin. I can live with that but like someone else wrote it seems like only the big boys will earn enough to stay in the game. I think they should open up a new type area/network for the hobby guys, just our network tied into the main big boy network so we can all get our noses wet.

Well, you can still get your nose wet with a GPU, you just won't pay the cost of it back.

You could always mine on test net.  Or namecoins, etc.  You'll get plenty of coins there.

I guess I am unsure what you really want.  You are sad you couldn't get in on the earlier mining opportunities that were profitable, so you are looking for ways to open up new mining opportunities that are profitable?

[opentoe]

If I could dig up the $30k I'd be seriously tempted by the ASIC minirig. Somehow, though, I can't see any bank lending me that.

I tried - they asked what the loan would be for, I explained mining, and they promptly sent back a professionally courteous email saying my laon request had been denied.   

I thought about this, and in essence it amounts to requesting a loan for de-facto gambling on a commodity market. I still love Bitcoin though and am seriously contemplating investing in a few BFL single SCs. I even spoke to Josh briefly at the London conference and he seems ok - then again, his sales pitch was hardly going to start "sorry but BFL still sucks at delivering on time", so it's not a straightforward issue. Anyway, given that I'm a bit of a n00b, and that my copy of Ubuntu 12.04 isn't even bloody installing on my lappie right now, I need to keep a cool-headed stock of everything!

But why grab singles when you probably won't even be able to pay them off in a decent time frame? I only heard about bitcoin a few months ago so I missed out on all the reaping or I should say raping that went on to accumulate coin. I can live with that but like someone else wrote it seems like only the big boys will earn enough to stay in the game. I think they should open up a new type area/network for the hobby guys, just our network tied into the main big boy network so we can all get our noses wet.

Well, you can still get your nose wet with a GPU, you just won't pay the cost of it back.

You could always mine on test net.  Or namecoins, etc.  You'll get plenty of coins there.

I guess I am unsure what you really want.  You are sad you couldn't get in on the earlier mining opportunities that were profitable, so you are looking for ways to open up new mining opportunities that are profitable?

I just love the whole bitcoin idea and the freedom it gives. Since I'm more of a technical person I wanted to try mining out at home. Then reading about how ASIC will change that forever stopped me from pre-ordering a couple single units. I basically wanted to participate in this idea, maybe make a little money and have fun.

[SgtSpike]

If I could dig up the $30k I'd be seriously tempted by the ASIC minirig. Somehow, though, I can't see any bank lending me that.

I tried - they asked what the loan would be for, I explained mining, and they promptly sent back a professionally courteous email saying my laon request had been denied.   

I thought about this, and in essence it amounts to requesting a loan for de-facto gambling on a commodity market. I still love Bitcoin though and am seriously contemplating investing in a few BFL single SCs. I even spoke to Josh briefly at the London conference and he seems ok - then again, his sales pitch was hardly going to start "sorry but BFL still sucks at delivering on time", so it's not a straightforward issue. Anyway, given that I'm a bit of a n00b, and that my copy of Ubuntu 12.04 isn't even bloody installing on my lappie right now, I need to keep a cool-headed stock of everything!

But why grab singles when you probably won't even be able to pay them off in a decent time frame? I only heard about bitcoin a few months ago so I missed out on all the reaping or I should say raping that went on to accumulate coin. I can live with that but like someone else wrote it seems like only the big boys will earn enough to stay in the game. I think they should open up a new type area/network for the hobby guys, just our network tied into the main big boy network so we can all get our noses wet.

Well, you can still get your nose wet with a GPU, you just won't pay the cost of it back.

You could always mine on test net.  Or namecoins, etc.  You'll get plenty of coins there.

I guess I am unsure what you really want.  You are sad you couldn't get in on the earlier mining opportunities that were profitable, so you are looking for ways to open up new mining opportunities that are profitable?

I just love the whole bitcoin idea and the freedom it gives. Since I'm more of a technical person I wanted to try mining out at home. Then reading about how ASIC will change that forever stopped me from pre-ordering a couple single units. I basically wanted to participate in this idea, maybe make a little money and have fun.

Then buy a $150 ASIC.  You should be able to participate in this idea, maybe make a little money, and have fun.

[os2sam]

I've seen no good news about a guy that just wants to run a single rig at his house to have some fun, make a little BTC to pay off the rig...but it seems that poor guy won't even get a return good enough to even pay off the rig (only $1300) itself.
---snip---
Since I'm middle class here I can't afford to spend $1300 on something that may not do anything. I wish there were guarantees here....

Why this self defeating "only the rich get richer" attitude?

Should there be any guarantees?  Is the whole point of mining bitcoin to get rich?  Does it take a high end rig to get some bitcoins?

No, no and no.

I have a fairly low end rig and if the ASIC's do come to fruition I will again have the low end version of those too.  I too don't have allot of spare cash to invest in the highest end mining gear.  But I am mining consistently, earning bitcoins for an investment over time.  When bitcoin starts becoming a mainstream currency and increases in value then it will have been a useful endeavor.  I'm not going to get rich, most likely, but that's not my goal in life.

Loosen up, quit being envious of those who have more than us, rich people have their own set of problems, usually worse than the problems we have.
Hope I wasn't too preachy ,
Sam

[Graet]

I've seen no good news about a guy that just wants to run a single rig at his house to have some fun, make a little BTC to pay off the rig...but it seems that poor guy won't even get a return good enough to even pay off the rig (only $1300) itself.
---snip---
Since I'm middle class here I can't afford to spend $1300 on something that may not do anything. I wish there were guarantees here....

Why this self defeating "only the rich get richer" attitude?

Should there be any guarantees?  Is the whole point of mining bitcoin to get rich?  Does it take a high end rig to get some bitcoins?

No, no and no.

I have a fairly low end rig and if the ASIC's do come to fruition I will again have the low end version of those too.  I too don't have allot of spare cash to invest in the highest end mining gear.  But I am mining consistently, earning bitcoins for an investment over time.  When bitcoin starts becoming a mainstream currency and increases in value then it will have been a useful endeavor.  I'm not going to get rich, most likely, but that's not my goal in life.

Loosen up, quit being envious of those who have more than us, rich people have their own set of problems, usually worse than the problems we have.
Hope I wasn't too preachy ,
Sam

well said Sam

Plus there is a whole Bitcoin economy out there waiting to be developed, plenty of money to be made in non-mining ways.

Cheers
Graet

[fcmatt]

You got two months to put together gpu rigs for about 1500 and you can get some btc fast. Then sell the hardware to recoup some costs. If elect costs are low you will come out ahead.

[crazyates]

You got two months to put together gpu rigs for about 1500 and you can get some btc fast. Then sell the hardware to recoup some costs. If elect costs are low you will come out ahead.

The time for building a GPU rig has passed. You won't have enough time to recoup a fraction of your costs, and the market for used 5970s and 7970s is going to be flooded in about 2 months.

[mila]

I'd say go for it. Buy yourself a raspberry pi or similar low powered computer to operate it.
When ASICs will be available the network hash rate will double every few months for a year at least. I won't try to predict more than 1 year development. In july the estimated preordered mining hardware was 40 ths, twice the current or recent total network capacity. It seems reasonable to expect from BFL (or whoever moves first to market) that they would ship that much hardware to miners within few months.
let the back order queue be 6 months and will slowly decrease to 1-2 months (as observed with fpga bfl products).
if you keep it mining 24/7 since the purchase than you will have fun operating it and watching the payouts. A BFL singe mines 3.50 per month today. It was surely more in february and will be less in the future. jalapenos should perform as well. maybe the payout will decrease faster and never start at 3.50 in the first place, but you'll have fun for sure mining at home with a small number of units. choosing a pool, responding to incidents, watching mining luck & variance or not care about mining as long as it will just work.
I'd wait for first independent reports and then order.

[Desolator]

You know, it's strange to say "only the big guys will make money fast" seeing as how let's say 1 Jalapeno for $149 will pay for itself in 3 months after the difficulty goes through the roof.  Then 2 Jalapenos for $298 will pay for themselves in 3 months and so will 50 Jalapenos.

The reality is nobody is going to make money since they'll all screw each other over from driving the difficulty up Butterfly labs will make money though, lol.

[os2sam]

A BFL singe mines 3.50 per month today. It was surely more in february and will be less in the future.

I'm a bit confused here.  Are you saying a current BFL single, which produces around 800Mhs, gets 3.5 bitcoins a month?

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

A BFL singe mines 3.50 per month today. It was surely more in february and will be less in the future.

I'm a bit confused here.  Are you saying a current BFL single, which produces around 800Mhs, gets 3.5 bitcoins a month?

Should be a bit more, like 8-9 bitcoins, but yeah. 800mh/s is nothing these days.

[os2sam]

A BFL singe mines 3.50 per month today. It was surely more in february and will be less in the future.

I'm a bit confused here.  Are you saying a current BFL single, which produces around 800Mhs, gets 3.5 bitcoins a month?

Should be a bit more, like 8-9 bitcoins, but yeah. 800mh/s is nothing these days.

I'm getting more than 3.5 per month on less than 800Mhs.  I wouldn't call 8 or 9 per month nothing.
Sam