Butterfly Labs Pre-Sales Not Covered by Paypal?

[Cablez]

This is why one should be very careful about ASIC purchases at this point. If the difficulty does go all hockey stick quickly then all ROI calculations are out the window.

The two variables that would have to change for continued profitability would be increases in BTC price relative to fiat or decreases in the cost of ASIC hardware.

Those ASIC vendors that think they can just keep current pricing will find their orders markedly decreasing over time without adjustment.

[RyanRed]

Yeah... I hear ya loud and clear there.

decisions decisions

[firefop]

So... 475 Terahash increase?! Damn man, when you look at it like that it makes buying just one SC single almost pointless. Hell the Jalapeno would be like what a CPU does today. It seems unless you have 10's of thousands of dollars to put into this that mining isnt even worth it. And even then, how will the people that spent that much even be able to get a return on their money. I wanted to buy a SC single, and had plans to at the end of October, but seeing it laid out like this almost makes it seem pointless. The hash rate currently is around 21 terahash. So if we divide this 475 terahash estimate by 21(today) we get around 22. The network will increase 22x in speed judging by your those speculated numbers. So if I take what 40 g/hash yeilds right now and divide by 22, I can get a good idea what a SC single will do. So lets see. 40g/has today gets you 14 bitcoins a day. Divide by 22, and we have .63 a day.

Is my math rigth here, or am I just completely wrong? Im still very much new to all of this, so it wouldnt suprise me if I am looking at this completely wrong here. But .63 bitcoins a day for a device that costs 1300 bucks seems pretty dangerous. Not to mention the blocks are sliced in half. Does that mean .3 a day from an SC single?!!

Someone who has more knowledge than me chime in here. Am I right with this analysis? I hope not... =/

-Ryan

I suppose the value in the coin could go up a lot. Following other flow charts it seems to follow suit with difficulty increases. Maybe better off just buying the coins, and hoping it follows suit with its past history.
 

Whack math is whack. I came up with a worst case estimate (as if all the confirmed pre-orders were sc rigs) putting difficulty at 40x --- on bfl's site Josh has stated that pre-orders are ~85 terahash now.
That will put BFL's contribution at 5x difficulty. It's nothing to worry about... once it hits 10x gpu's will be gone, and fpga will just barely be profitable.

[Keefe]

Only 85 TH? Link?

[mmortal03]

if you take the numbers from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0 as a sample, you find that there are actually more single SC units being sold than jallys (also straight order numbers doesn't take into account multiple units per order). hash rate will be even higher...

of course there are lots of unfilled orders from 0-9000, so they don't actually have 9000 real orders..lots of failed orders are part of that number. I think BFL_engineer said they had something like 5k units on order or something like that last week.

I did some crunching on those numbers in that thread, to extrapolate and predict the revenue received based on the available data, and arrived at this:

Product                        Qty  Dollar value
Jalapenos:                     208  $30992
Singles:                       108  $140292
Single trade-ins:              118  $76641
Mini Rigs:                     6    $173400
Mini Rig trade-ins:            15   $216750
Documented total orders:       455  $638075
Value of average item ordered:      $1402.36263736264
Inferred total orders:         7029 $9857206.97802198

That does not adjust for orders that may be unpaid, refunded, duplicate, or otherwise invalid.  If you were to discount 20% of the orders, that would be about $7.88m received.

If you extrapolate a bit further (again not accounting for invalid orders) you can calculate:


Product                    Qty  Hashrate (GHps)
Inferred Jalapenos:        3213 11246
Inferred Singles:          3491 139653
Inferred Mini Rigs:        324  324415
Totals:                    7029 475314

How are you coming up with the inferred total orders of 7029?

[Bogart]

if you take the numbers from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0 as a sample, you find that there are actually more single SC units being sold than jallys (also straight order numbers doesn't take into account multiple units per order). hash rate will be even higher...

of course there are lots of unfilled orders from 0-9000, so they don't actually have 9000 real orders..lots of failed orders are part of that number. I think BFL_engineer said they had something like 5k units on order or something like that last week.

I did some crunching on those numbers in that thread, to extrapolate and predict the revenue received based on the available data, and arrived at this:

Product                        Qty  Dollar value
Jalapenos:                     208  $30992
Singles:                       108  $140292
Single trade-ins:              118  $76641
Mini Rigs:                     6    $173400
Mini Rig trade-ins:            15   $216750
Documented total orders:       455  $638075
Value of average item ordered:      $1402.36263736264
Inferred total orders:         7029 $9857206.97802198

That does not adjust for orders that may be unpaid, refunded, duplicate, or otherwise invalid.  If you were to discount 20% of the orders, that would be about $7.88m received.

If you extrapolate a bit further (again not accounting for invalid orders) you can calculate:


Product                    Qty  Hashrate (GHps)
Inferred Jalapenos:        3213 11246
Inferred Singles:          3491 139653
Inferred Mini Rigs:        324  324415
Totals:                    7029 475314

How are you coming up with the inferred total orders of 7029?

It measures the delta between the lowest order number in the list and the highest order number.

[mmortal03]

It measures the delta between the lowest order number in the list and the highest order number.

A large number of those aren't ASIC orders, though.