Marginal mining profit - when will we reach it?

[arklan]

so we all, i think i can safely say, understand that eventually, when the block reward tapers off enough and transaction fees are the primary miner income, that the cost of transactions will, because of competition, be only a fraction above cost of operating the mining hardware. right? right.

so, when will we approach that point? we all know the block reward will be approach zero by roughly 2030, though not actually reach it for something like 100 years. so, will mining be a true "profitable" venture for the next twenty years? ten? or is the above premise wrong, and if so, what's your reasoning?

personally i believe with the block reward being 25 for the next 4 years, then 12.5 after that, etc, that we have roughly 10 to 12 years of actually making some solid income and paying off hardware and such. for bigger miners, even living off the income could/should be possible for a while. further out the variables are too many and too complex for me to figure. if the exchange rate (assuming relatively similar $ purchasing power and no collapse thereof) of BTC-$ goes to the oft rumored 100, then $650 a block isn't exactly anything to sneeze at, even divided between 1000 people. after all, with 144 blocks (roughly) found a day, that's about $93 a day for each of those people, assuming equal hash rates.

so, thoughts?

[1714581843]

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[1714581843]

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[1714581843]

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[1714581843]

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[1714581843]

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[flower1024]

so we all, i think i can safely say, understand that eventually, when the block reward tapers off enough and transaction fees are the primary miner income, that the cost of transactions will, because of competition, be only a fraction above cost of operating the mining hardware. right? right.

so, when will we approach that point? we all know the block reward will be approach zero by roughly 2030, though not actually reach it for something like 100 years. so, will mining be a true "profitable" venture for the next twenty years? ten? or is the above premise wrong, and if so, what's your reasoning?

personally i believe with the block reward being 25 for the next 4 years, then 12.5 after that, etc, that we have roughly 10 to 12 years of actually making some solid income and paying off hardware and such. for bigger miners, even living off the income could/should be possible for a while. further out the variables are too many and too complex for me to figure. if the exchange rate (assuming relatively similar $ purchasing power and no collapse thereof) of BTC-$ goes to the oft rumored 100, then $650 a block isn't exactly anything to sneeze at, even divided between 1000 people. after all, with 144 blocks (roughly) found a day, that's about $93 a day for each of those people, assuming equal hash rates.

so, thoughts?

as far as better mining equipment is built i dont see how to determine this date.
the first asics are soon entering the market.

but its still possible (and likely) to improve them (atm i think they are all just fpga's burned to an asic using a 100nm process).

so we'll see another 10x-100x raise the next few years in mining speed.

[Jutarul]

Right now the technology behind mining experiences something like an artificially accelerated evolution, since a lot of technology is unlocked as the bitcoin economy grows (first big revolution was GPU mining). Once we hit the technological barrier, ROI calculations will be much more reliable, because it then just follows the trend line for the semiconductor industry. Until then, ASIC itself will see quite a spread in ROI due to technological differences as an outcome of company strategies.
It's endgame when you see big companies like intel and amd buying off any ASIC related companies... (which is a reasonable exit strategy for an ASIC startup). That will in all likelihood happen before the 10 year mark.

As far as profitability is concerned, it should be directly proportional to your access to cheap power. Thus I expect serious mining companies to spend equal effort on access to cheap energy and mining technology. The cool thing about the mining industry is that it is quite mobile. Thus you can move to the place where energy is produced, keeping your cost of energy low (most of the energy cost is related to transportation).