[WTB] Casascius Coins

[Possum577]

Feel free to chat all you want in this thread since we have no other place to do it. Multiplier for Casascius does not work and never has. Some coins get 2-3x face, but it just depends. The 5BTC coins command 2-3 over face while the 25 is lucky to get 2 over face. Some Casascius have crazy markup while others do not...it is a unique market indeed.

Hey Blazed, since you're ok to continue talking about it...

I (very respectfully) still think you all are missing the point. The multiplier is not meant to be the same across things (Casascius coins in this case), it's just meant to be used as a comparison. The multiplier works better for Casascius coins than fiat coins because there isn't a standard market yet, and more importantly because there are multiple denominations that can trade with various premiums - the fact that it's a unique market makes the value of discussion price comparisons in terms of multipliers even greater.

Based on your experience (from what you've said above), the multiplier for a 5BTC coin is 2-3x, the multiplier for a 25BTC coin is 1.08x. The multiplier of the tenth I bought (at 0.7BTC) would by 7x face. It's just a factor used for comparison...it's different depending on whatever people pay - you or me, now or tomorrow.

It's like finding the lowest common denominator of two fractions so as to compare the two (that originally had different denominators.)

A multiplier can be applied any time a premium is paid over face. And a multiplier is only really useful when two similar items that have different face values want to be compared for the purpose of valuation.

[nubbins]

I (very respectfully) still think you all are missing the point.

...

a multiplier is only really useful when two similar items that have different face values want to be compared for the purpose of valuation.

So, for example, if you wanted to compare a 2013 0.5 brass to a 2013 1.0 brass, you'd use face value multipliers to compare them?



Somebody's missing a point, not sure it's us

[Blazed]

I think it is much easier to say "over face value" rather than multiplier.

25BTC gets 2 over Face Value
Silver + Gilt gets 2-5 over Face Value
2013 brass halve might fetch .2 - .5 over Face
Etc...

Over Face being the premium + seller markup etc...

[nubbins]

These two aren't in your list, but hey.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1128004.new#new

[monkeynuts]

I can get a 10btc gold B locally

except it will cost a premium (without me making anything)

I will however still help get it if you need, think he wants 21BTC

Cheers

2.1x face is in line with valuations for (if not better than) BTC1 coins...and the BTC10 coin is significantly more rare. Is the coin all silver or silver with gold?

2 x 1 is very different than 2 x 10 though... I do not use a formula like that to value coins either.

When the 25BTC cas coins sell they sell at like 27(?). So there really is not a formula. More of what people want for their coins.
I know nubbins has some S2 5BTC I think for 25BTC...

Yea the whole X times face thing is a calculation used generally for junk silver to simplify the math (spot*0.715*face+premium). Dunno why people apply it to Cas coins. Should think of it simply as face plus premium, determined solely by rarity and demand.

Dazed, don't be a fool.

Valuation multipliers aren't reserved for some things people purchase and not for others. It's a mathematical way to compare the bid or offer price of two different things that cannot otherwise be easily compared. Here's an appropriate example for you: One cannot compare the sales price between a physical 1BTC coin and 10BTC coin because the stored value in one is ten times the other AND there's no generally accepted treatment of the premium that should be applied to each. The only way to equally, fairly compare the prices is by using a valuation multiplier.

The Casascius tenths have gone for 20x face, the 1BTC has gone for 2-4x face depending on the type of coin (i.e., brass or silver), and denominations above have rarely if ever been sold publicly so there's no real information the potential price range.

If you think that valuations are reserved for select items or aren't relevant, you're wrong. Now, you can choose not to agree with a valuation multiplier or think about the formula for price differently - that's completely fine, should be encouraged! But until someone buys these coins and the price is public we have no real way to assess what the price should be, hence my multiplier valuation comment.

If you are the only person using multipliers as a way of comparing coin values, does that make you right , and everyone else wrong ?

[Possum577]

I (very respectfully) still think you all are missing the point.

...

a multiplier is only really useful when two similar items that have different face values want to be compared for the purpose of valuation.

So, for example, if you wanted to compare a 2013 0.5 brass to a 2013 1.0 brass, you'd use face value multipliers to compare them?



Somebody's missing a point, not sure it's us

Nubbins, yes you could use a multiplier to compare the offer or bid price between the two. You could use it to compare what the prices are for a coin you plan to buy in the future - measuring where the market is now vs. where it's been in the past. Or you could use it to compare what you've paid across a variety of different Casascius coins in your collection.

If you think I'm missing the point you should take a moment to explain why.

You haven't, or maybe you can't because my logic and rationale supports the official economic definition of what a valuation multiplier is.

@MonkeyNuts, 1) Expand your view of who does and doesn't use multipliers, this is a standard economic term...the only people that don't accept it as a way to value similar assets is a few people on this forum. 2) A long time ago people thought the world was flat, just because it's what you've always believed doesn't mean you can't evolve your thinking. E.g., a year ago everyone selling Casascius 2011 series 2 coins discounted their value to the series 1 errors even though the series 2 has significantly lower mintage. I called this out and people disagreed with me, now I see people (including your self) referring to these coins as more rare (and therefore more valuable) than the 2011 series 1. Do some research before calling me out please.

I'm not picking a fight here, promise, just trying to share a way for people to think about and evaluate the values of these highly collectible coins. Everyone keeps telling me "oh that's ridiculous" yet no one has another definition for valuation multipliers or cares to try to prove me wrong.

Why not let economics help you make more informed buying decisions?!

EDIT: Additional resources for people:

Cointalk.com forum post about using multipliers to compare bullion prices to coin values: https://www.cointalk.com/threads/how-do-i-calculate-bullion-value.34500/

Using ratios to compare two similar items: http://cstl.syr.edu/FIPSE/DECUNIT/ratios/ratios.htm

Analyze investments quickly with ratios: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/ratios.asp

[TheAnalogKid]

Possum,

You can use well established multipliers for junk silver, because that market is very stable and the currency you're using to purchase it is also stable.  That is simple mathematics, you know you're calculating melt values only, and also no premiums for collect-ability.

You can probably establish a proper value multiplier for raw coins within the same series, as right now you can get 2013 0.5BTC brass Cas off the roll for about 1.5x face, and 1.0BTC cas coins for about 1.25 face, regardless of the seller.  Lealana market is also similar, you can peg a price of a raw coin pretty well to a multiplier at the moment.  Those I'd consider the "bullion" of the Bitcoin Physical world at the moment.

However, straight multipliers are invalid when in the market for the truly collectible ones.  They are also invalid when you jump series or years.  There is no direct correlation between the 0.1 S2 and the 0.1 S3.  They are the same face value, but they are not anywhere near the same coin, nor the same premium.  The regular coin-collecting world is littered with examples of this, and it is no different here.

Let's take an example from the normal coin collecting world to illustrate this.  I like Ikes, so I'll take the example from there.

There was a silver coin produced from 1971-1974 in Mint State, typically called the "Blue Pack Ike".  All of them raw can be purchased for roughly $10 each in original packaging.  They're no different when in raw state, they cost about the same.  They have the same FV multiplier for their silver content, and the same FV multiplier for the actual coin, roughly 10x FV.

However, once you get into the graded examples of each series you will see the difference in pricing, and it is the same here.

1971-S through 1974-S in MS-64, roughly same price - $15-16.  Once you start going above MS-64 the landscape changes significantly.

1971-S in MS-65?  $30.
1972-S, 1973-S, 1974-S?  $16

1971-S in MS-66?  $90.
1972-S, 1973-S, 1974-S?  $22

1971-S in MS-67?  $475.
1972-S, 1973-S, 1974-S?  $60

Wait, what?  Why is the 1971-S so different than the others? 

By your standard multiplier logic, the 1971 should also be $22 in MS-66, and $60 in MS-67 grade.  Because they're all $1 silver Ikes, and they all cost the same raw, they should all cost the same up through all the grades, because, well, they multiplier says so.

Nope, that's not how it works there, and that's not how it works here.

The 1971-S is special and worth more at the higher grades, because of market rarity.

But, you say how is it possible that there's market rarity, when the mintage of the 1971-S is more than the mintages of all 1972-1974 combined  (6,868,530 1971 vs 5,976,352 for all 1972, 1973, 1974)?

Because the 1971 is special in the series.  It was the first coin produced in the series, but it was plagued with issues from the start.  They are well documented, you can go look up everything about the series as a whole, I'll not get into it here.

Because of the issues with the 1971-S, not many receive the MS-67 designation.  Weak strikes, bad packaging which resulted in easy damage to coins while still in the packaging, etc, keep the grades down, even though the production dwarfs the rest of the series.

There is no difference here.

I do not disagree with you that there is useful application of a multiplier to find true value, in certain situations, series, and conditions.

However, it is not here, with the Cas market, where the conditions for application of multipliers are thrown out the window.

[Fortify]

Nubbins, yes you could use a multiplier to compare the offer or bid price between the two. You could use it to compare what the prices are for a coin you plan to buy in the future - measuring where the market is now vs. where it's been in the past. Or you could use it to compare what you've paid across a variety of different Casascius coins in your collection.

If you think I'm missing the point you should take a moment to explain why.

You haven't, or maybe you can't because my logic and rationale supports the official economic definition of what a valuation multiplier is.

@MonkeyNuts, 1) Expand your view of who does and doesn't use multipliers, this is a standard economic term...the only people that don't accept it as a way to value similar assets is a few people on this forum. 2) A long time ago people thought the world was flat, just because it's what you've always believed doesn't mean you can't evolve your thinking. E.g., a year ago everyone selling Casascius 2011 series 2 coins discounted their value to the series 1 errors even though the series 2 has significantly lower mintage. I called this out and people disagreed with me, now I see people (including your self) referring to these coins as more rare (and therefore more valuable) than the 2011 series 1. Do some research before calling me out please.

I'm not picking a fight here, promise, just trying to share a way for people to think about and evaluate the values of these highly collectible coins. Everyone keeps telling me "oh that's ridiculous" yet no one has another definition for valuation multipliers or cares to try to prove me wrong.

Why not let economics help you make more informed buying decisions?!

EDIT: Additional resources for people:

Cointalk.com forum post about using multipliers to compare bullion prices to coin values: https://www.cointalk.com/threads/how-do-i-calculate-bullion-value.34500/

Using ratios to compare two similar items: http://cstl.syr.edu/FIPSE/DECUNIT/ratios/ratios.htm

Analyze investments quickly with ratios: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/ratios.asp

You write as if you're the only person who knows the value of Casascius coins and want to share it in a lot of different threads. It is rather ignorant and insulting to the people who actually trade these regularly - regardless of your "facts", they still sell at "crazy" prices. The market sets the perceived value, it's a rather simple concept to understand. If the last 0.10 casascius graded 67 was sold for 1.9btc, the next seller will - if they're aware of it - put theirs up for sale at a similar price.

[justbtcme]

Anyone interested in a 2012 Casascius brass 1.0 BTC, graded MS-65 ?

[Panthers52]

Analyze investments quickly with ratios: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/ratios.asp

The difference between using, for example the Price to Earnings ratio of a stock and using multipliers to value casascius coins is that a stock's (company's) earnings is what almost always drives the value of a stock, while the loaded amount does not drive the majority of the value of a casascius coin.

The value of a stock is the present value of the underlying company's future cash flows, after taking into account things like risk free interest rates, inflation, and of course the risk associated that certain assumptions may not turn out to be true. Most of the time, a company's earnings growth will also be taken into consideration, and investors will use both a stock's P/E ratio and it's PEG (price to earnings growth) ratio.

Sometimes, there need to be more complex calculations to determine what a stock is worth, for example, when there are rumors of a pending all cash buyout offer, when a company has large amounts of cash on hand, among other reasons. In these scenarios, it would be assumed that in a worse case scenario, the company can (and possibly will) return a portion of that cash back to investors when management determines they cannot effectively and prudently invest excess cash.

Casascius coins on the other hand derive their value very differently. As I am sure you know, casascius coins do not generate any kind of cash. If the same logic was used to value casascius coins as is used to value stocks (and other financial instruments) then the value of casascius (and other physical) coins would be below their loaded value plus the value of the precious metal contained in the coins. Since the coins generate no revenue, the only future cash flows would be from when the coins would be eventually redeemed, and when the coins are sold from scrap metal, which would be sometime in the future, and taking into consideration that there is a non-zero risk factor in buying the coins, and a risk free interest rate. If this was the case then it wouldn't even make sense for anyone to even create the coins in the first place because it would be a money loosing venture.

As is the case with other collectable items, casascius coins derriere their value from their rarity, their condition and their desirability. All of the above is very difficult to quantify, so someone trading collectable items may not be able to accurately calculate how much a particular coin is worth. One very good "slogan" to go by to value a particular coin, is 'a coin's value is whatever a buyer is willing to pay for it', although this would somewhat ignore my above statements.

One very good example as to why multipliers are not a good indication as to what a coin is worth is a recent sale of a casascius "exception" tenth graded MS67. A casascius coin with it's face value, graded MS67 will generally fetch somewhere in the 1.9 to 2.5 range, which works out to between 19x and 25x the face value of the coin. The coin in question was accidentally loaded with an additional 1.65, meaning it's total loaded value was 1.76 BTC. If you were to use the same multipliers as a "normal" MS67 casascius tenth, then one would presume that such a coin would fetch somewhere between 33 and 43 BTC, however this was not the case and it fetched somewhere in the 3-4 BTC range, which represents approximately the same premium over the face value of the tenth that a normal MS67 tenth would fetch.

Am I willing to admit that I am wrong about this? Yes absolutely, although I don't think your arguments are strong enough to prove me wrong.

[elianite]

One very good example as to why multipliers are not a good indication as to what a coin is worth is a recent sale of a casascius "exception" tenth graded MS67. A casascius coin with it's face value, graded MS67 will generally fetch somewhere in the 1.9 to 2.5 range, which works out to between 19x and 25x the face value of the coin. The coin in question was accidentally loaded with an additional 1.65, meaning it's total loaded value was 1.76 BTC. If you were to use the same multipliers as a "normal" MS67 casascius tenth, then one would presume that such a coin would fetch somewhere between 33 and 43 BTC, however this was not the case and it fetched somewhere in the 3-4 BTC range, which represents approximately the same premium over the face value of the tenth that a normal MS67 tenth would fetch.

I am selling a "normal" MS68 casascius tenth, for 55x face value; 5.5BTC. Perhaps If I load it with an additional 0.9BTC, I can sell for 55BTC. Any takers?

Shameless Plug: see the coin at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1127806.0

[Possum577]

Possum,

By your standard multiplier logic, the 1971 should also be $22 in MS-66, and $60 in MS-67 grade. 

Kid, I agree with every thing you said accept for this quote. First, it's not "my standard multiplier logic", second multipliers shouldn't be used to predict the price of a similar coin of a different series/year/type/denomination. You imply that "my logic" says it's a predictor of price, it's not.

Fortify, you don't quite understand - the multiplier doesn't set the price or the market, the multiplier is a way of comparing the prices or values of two things that are similar assets (coins in this case) that have already been valued by the market. Most importantly, I trade theses coins and follow trades of these coins so there's no ignorance in my opinion on how to analyze the sales. You discount your own comments when you put the word "facts" in quotes, especially after I've shared facts and sources of what valuation multipliers are used for. I'm happy to debate you on stuff but don't attack me for it.

Panthers, Price-to-Earnings ratio is just an example of a ratio, it in no way relates to Casascius coins nor did I ever say it did. I guess that particular linked source, shared as an example, was taken incorrectly as the way a ratio would be applied to Casascius coins.

A valuation multiplier is a ratio. When one is trying to compare the prices (already established by the market) of two similar (but not exactly the same) assets, a ratio or valuation multiplier is a great way to understand how those market set prices compare. It's a way of analyzing prices after the fact of the sale or the bid or the offer.

It's just a means for comparison. And comparing what the market prices are for these different series and denominations of Casascius coins is really interesting, especially (if not only) because the market is volatile and not well established.

Don't confuse any of my comments by trying to add your interpretation beyond what I've stated above...it's really this simple.

I'll stop talking about it because I'm sure I'm not making any friends by bringing it up and obviously the only people who respond are those who don't agree with me or don't understand what I'm trying to explain to you all.

[TookDk]

There is a major flaw in using multiplier for crypto related items, since it is not generic for all the items we trade here:

Casascius St. Petersborg Bowl coin, multiplier = ?
Casascius Bearer bar, multiplier = ?
Kialara (not funded), multiplier = ?
Cryptolator (not funded), multiplier = ?
Lealana buyer funded, multiplier = ?
Genesis (not funded), multiplier = ?
Ravenbit (not funded), multiplier = ?
DIY (no private key, not funded), multiplier = ?
Novelty coins (no private key), multiplier = ?
Redeemed coins, multiplier = ?
Altcoins, volatile face value, but prices in bitcoin, multiplier = ?
Nastycoin (face value is a "seat", but also have a balance which increase over time), multiplier = ?
etc.

This leave us with a method for "comparing the prices" which only apply to the subset of the coins.

At least "nubbins formula" can be used for all the items and not only Casascius.
SALE PRICE = (FACE VALUE) + (NUMISMATIC VALUE) + (SELLER'S PREMIUM)

The other problem which has already been pointed out, is the over-funding.
The argument about a coin being over-funded is worth less than an precise funded coins have a problem:
As Blazed have pointed out before (cannot find the quote), it is just a matter of time before a troll takes the entire Casascius address list and spray it with dust, then will all the coins Casascius 1 BTC coins have a balance of 1.00000001 BTC - nothing anybody can do about that.

[Possum577]

There is a major flaw in using multiplier for crypto related items, since it is not generic for all the items we trade here:

Casascius St. Petersborg Bowl coin, multiplier = ?
Casascius Bearer bar, multiplier = ?
Kialara (not funded), multiplier = ?
Cryptolator (not funded), multiplier = ?
Lealana buyer funded, multiplier = ?
Genesis (not funded), multiplier = ?
Ravenbit (not funded), multiplier = ?
DIY (no private key, not funded), multiplier = ?
Novelty coins (no private key), multiplier = ?
Redeemed coins, multiplier = ?
Altcoins, volatile face value, but prices in bitcoin, multiplier = ?
Nastycoin (face value is a "seat", but also have a balance which increase over time), multiplier = ?
etc.

This leave us with a method for "comparing the prices" which only apply to the subset of the coins.

At least "nubbins formula" can be used for all the items and not only Casascius.
SALE PRICE = (FACE VALUE) + (NUMISMATIC VALUE) + (SELLER'S PREMIUM)

The other problem which has already been pointed out, is the over-funding.
The argument about a coin being over-funded is worth less than an precise funded coins have a problem:
As Blazed have pointed out before (cannot find the quote), it is just a matter of time before a troll takes the entire Casascius address list and spray it with dust, then will all the coins Casascius 1 BTC coins have a balance of 1.00000001 BTC - nothing anybody can do about that.

Sorry guys, i can't help myself...if I'm outstaying my welcome on this topic please tell me and I'll shut up about it (seriously).

A multiplier is as generic as it gets...VALUATION MULTIPLIER = (SALE PRICE) / (FACE VALUE)

A few additional points about valuation multipliers, I'll repeat for TookDk:

• They aren't used to determine sales price, they're used to compare sales prices
• It's not a replacement for the formula Nubbins shared about how to calculate a proposed or appropriate sale price
• They don't need to be the same across different coin types or issues, in fact that's the point - it's a method to standardize the comparison between different coin types or issues

Having a multiplier for all the coins you list above would enable us all to quickly see which coin the market values with the highest premium based on its valuation over face.

Chainsaw started (a while back) a thread about Casascius coin sales and he/she includes a multiplier in the table -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=214589.0. Are you all willing to give this thinking on valuation some credit now that I'm not the only one using it?

E.g. Notice the difference in the multiplier between the series 1 coins and the multiplier for the higher denomination coins (BTC25)..the valuation difference is HUGE for the series 1 coins and the multiplier makes it really easy to see/understand.

You guys/gals keep making this more complicated than it is.

[monkeynuts]

Possum. As you can see from a large number of responses here, from many people, across numerous continents ..... it seems you are in a fairly lonely place using multipliers in this specific area. In my opinion, the fact that you have needed to go so far back as that thread from Chainsaw kind of emphasises their lack of usefullness, rather than actually validates their applicability here. But that is just my humble opinion ... but it is also the opinion shared by many others also well seasoned in this specific market.

The significant variation in the bitcoin price would significantly affect the multiplier (done against a bitcoin price, or FIAT price) and so makes time another variable that distorts the applicability of multipliers. Crypto coins are made up of different components, and over time the same multiplier isnt helpful when multiplying different assets whose values are changing at different rates realative to each other over time - ie coin metal price, crypto currency value, then 'mark up' from rarity, grade, popularity etc. Each component effectively requires its own multiplier, rather than 1 for all, and as such a single multiplier loses relevance. Only if all cryptocoins were all compared on the same day could I see a single multiplier having any relevance, and that relevance would only be for that day.

You've tried to preach multipliers to the masses, and it would seem most arent looking to be converted. I can also see that this is your opinion, and you are happy with that opinion, and I admire your conviction to it in the face of strong argument. Others are happy with their differing opinion. If you enjoy using multipliers, then use multipliers. If thats how you personally compare value, then fill your boots, multiply away  . 

But ... second or third time the same discussion has happened, on a thread meant for something else.  I keep getting thread updates for a post I am watching, that isnt about the post I am interested in. If you want to specifically talk more about it start a separate thread especially for it, its obviously something that will get debated, and wont get 100% consensus, but will have some lively banter. Post the link on here, then we can all let Blazed source his coins in peace ?

[nubbins]

Chainsaw's addition of a multiplier column in his chart was useful because it was right next to all the other stats.

Here's the same information written three different ways, in order of decreasing usefulness:

"fives sell for 6-8btc"

"fives sell for a 1-3btc premium over face"

"fives sell for 1.2-1.6x face"

Everyone is, indeed, making this more complicated than it is. I wonder how complicated things would get if I tossed a coin up on the auction block and accepted bids in both BTC and USD?

[nubbins]

But ... second or third time the same discussion has happened, on a thread meant for something else.  I keep getting thread updates for a post I am watching, that isnt about the post I am interested in. If you want to specifically talk more about it start a separate thread especially for it, its obviously something that will get debated, and wont get 100% consensus, but will have some lively banter. Post the link on here, then we can all let Blazed source his coins in peace ?

Haha, WHOOPS. 

Physical Crypto General Discussion

[OgNasty]

The thought of a magic multiplier being used to value Casascius coins is absurd.  Far too absurd to spend the time penning a response disproving it.

[TookDk]

For the unfunded coins is the multiplier a problem, what is the face value?
If the face value is zero, then will the math break down:

facevalue * multiplier = price -> With zero in facevalue, then will the price be zero.

If the price is not zero, then is the multiplier undefined or infinite.  
multiplier = Price/0

[nubbins]

For the unfunded coins is the multiplier a problem, what is the face value?
If the face value is zero, then will the math break down:

facevalue * multiplier = price -> With zero in facevalue, then will the price be zero.

If the price is not zero, then is the multiplier undefined or infinite.  
multiplier = Price/0

If it's a silver coin, the "face value" is the spot value of the silver.

If it's a brass coin, the "face value" is zero because it's a piece of fucking brass.

EDIT: WRONG THREAD