Antibubble? Less expected scenarios for 2016 halving

[Biodom]

It is sometimes beneficial to look at the other side view for a moment.

Practically the entire bitcoin community suggests that we will have a glorious bubble on or around 2016 halving.
However, fully expected events in any market almost never come to fruition.
So, what unexpected scenario(s) could unfold?

a. An antibubble (hard down) caused by some unforeseen circumstances?
b. Mining demise, hence a decreased network ability to process transactions resulting in bitcoin "crisis"?
c. Developers focus on other crypto, hence bitcoin becoming "boring" and fizzling away?

Yet, I cannot foresee any of these possibilities actually happening, so maybe instead of anti-bubble we would just have a boring flat market all the way?

[futureofbitcoin]

I've said before, but when bitcoin price doesn't increase as expected at the halving, perhaps it will decrease a bit because of people losing confidence or people who wanted to make a quick buck giving up and leaving.

I don't think bitcoin's price will go up slow and steady. Either something happens to catapult it way up, or it fades away.

[pa]

There is so much heterogeneity amongst potential purchasers of Bitcoin in their level of understanding. Sophisticated Bitcoiners fully expect the halving, but the newbies and the not-yet-newbies have no clue about the emission schedule. The halving will provide a narrative scaffold for predicting another bubble, and the prediction will become self-fulfilling, because it will seem plausible that others will find it plausible.

[Alley]

Ponzi scheme or not price of litecoin is still over double what it was 2 months ago.  And halving is less then 2 months away.  I think it will be similar with bitcoin.  Significant price increase when 4 months to go.

[jehst]

a possible scenario, which has played out with many alts, is that pre-halving hype ends up overshooting. by the time the actual halving arrives, bitcoin could be on its way down from the pre-halving rally

[brg444]

a possible scenario, which has played out with many alts, is that pre-halving hype ends up overshooting. by the time the actual halving arrives, bitcoin could be on its way down from the pre-halving rally

interesting. is this your analysis of LTC? has this been the case historically?

[Amph]

a possible scenario, which has played out with many alts, is that pre-halving hype ends up overshooting. by the time the actual halving arrives, bitcoin could be on its way down from the pre-halving rally

it's not fair to compare it with what happened recently with litecoin, bitcoin halving will probably face a different route, because first the amount of coin that will be halved are not the same, and total coins in circulation is almost x3 in litecoin

also the demand of litecoin versus bitcoin is a joke, not accepeted in any big merchants

[8up]

It is sometimes beneficial to look at the other side view for a moment.

Practically the entire bitcoin community suggests that we will have a glorious bubble on or around 2016 halving.
However, fully expected events in any market almost never come to fruition.
So, what unexpected scenario(s) could unfold?

a. An antibubble (hard down) caused by some unforeseen circumstances?
b. Mining demise, hence a decreased network ability to process transactions resulting in bitcoin "crisis"?
c. Developers focus on other crypto, hence bitcoin becoming "boring" and fizzling away?

Yet, I cannot foresee any of these possibilities actually happening, so maybe instead of anti-bubble we would just have a boring flat market all the way?

Only people that don't know how markets work, anticipate a halving bubble. A bubble is simply a masspsycholgical phenomenon. If everyone thinks there will be a bubble I guarantee - you nothing will happen.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I understand the possibilities explained in the OP but to be honest I don't even want to entertain them with much thought. I think it's close to 100% certain that the price will rise significantly as a result of the halving next summer. If you put me on the spot & asked me to predict the price at the next halving I'd say around 500-600 USD.

[Q7]

I don't expect the price to crash because some mining farms were unable to compete with the rest and dropped out. There will always be other competitors taking their spot. And talk about altcoins gaining traction and surpasses bitcoin popularity? I don't think so. If it were to happen, it would have long time ago. Right now, I don't see any of the alts worthy enough. 

[Ibian]

It is sometimes beneficial to look at the other side view for a moment.

Practically the entire bitcoin community suggests that we will have a glorious bubble on or around 2016 halving.
However, fully expected events in any market almost never come to fruition.
So, what unexpected scenario(s) could unfold?

a. An antibubble (hard down) caused by some unforeseen circumstances?
b. Mining demise, hence a decreased network ability to process transactions resulting in bitcoin "crisis"?
c. Developers focus on other crypto, hence bitcoin becoming "boring" and fizzling away?

Yet, I cannot foresee any of these possibilities actually happening, so maybe instead of anti-bubble we would just have a boring flat market all the way?

Only people that don't know how markets work, anticipate a halving bubble. A bubble is simply a masspsycholgical phenomenon. If everyone thinks there will be a bubble I guarantee - you nothing will happen.

In this case it's about numbers. The electricity needed to generate a bitcoin will double. So will the price, or the network strength will weaken. Those are the two options.

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

It is sometimes beneficial to look at the other side view for a moment.

Practically the entire bitcoin community suggests that we will have a glorious bubble on or around 2016 halving.
However, fully expected events in any market almost never come to fruition.
So, what unexpected scenario(s) could unfold?

a. An antibubble (hard down) caused by some unforeseen circumstances?
b. Mining demise, hence a decreased network ability to process transactions resulting in bitcoin "crisis"?
c. Developers focus on other crypto, hence bitcoin becoming "boring" and fizzling away?

Yet, I cannot foresee any of these possibilities actually happening, so maybe instead of anti-bubble we would just have a boring flat market all the way?

I think it's the opposite: It's now in the collective mind that we will have a pump for the 2016 halving. This psychological factor is one of the main reasons big pumps happen. It happened with the Greece incident too. Now every time we have Greece type scenarios BTC will pretty much pump guaranteed.

[jehst]

It is sometimes beneficial to look at the other side view for a moment.

Practically the entire bitcoin community suggests that we will have a glorious bubble on or around 2016 halving.
However, fully expected events in any market almost never come to fruition.
So, what unexpected scenario(s) could unfold?

a. An antibubble (hard down) caused by some unforeseen circumstances?
b. Mining demise, hence a decreased network ability to process transactions resulting in bitcoin "crisis"?
c. Developers focus on other crypto, hence bitcoin becoming "boring" and fizzling away?

Yet, I cannot foresee any of these possibilities actually happening, so maybe instead of anti-bubble we would just have a boring flat market all the way?

Only people that don't know how markets work, anticipate a halving bubble. A bubble is simply a masspsycholgical phenomenon. If everyone thinks there will be a bubble I guarantee - you nothing will happen.

In this case it's about numbers. The electricity needed to generate a bitcoin will double. So will the price, or the network strength will weaken. Those are the two options.

The network doesn't "care" whether difficulty goes down and the network weakens. 1800 coins will be mined every day no matter what.

The only thing that determines price is how much people are willing to pay for a bitcoin.

[randy8777]

i think we make the block halving more interesting than it is. i guess we'll see a higher price before the halving, and a drop after the halving to around the $300-$350 level.

[RodeoX]

What about an anti-bubble from early speculation? Let's say the price rises as we approach the halving date and speculators try guessing the top. Then when it happens we discover that speculation has driven the price too high and the market corrects. Crash! we fall back to Earth.

Just guessing. I like the idea of considering "less expected scenarios". 

[jehst]

What about an anti-bubble from early speculation? Let's say the price rises as we approach the halving date and speculators try guessing the top. Then when it happens we discover that speculation has driven the price too high and the market corrects. Crash! we fall back to Earth.

but then the winklevoss ETF launches after the contraction and all the sellers panic buy again. just another wildcard. the ETF application will be 3 years old next summer.

guys like carl icahn, mark armstrong, and even donald trump are all warning about the bond market bubble that's likely going to be ready to pop in 2016

i think 2016 is guaranteed entertainment.

[spazzdla]

It is sometimes beneficial to look at the other side view for a moment.

Practically the entire bitcoin community suggests that we will have a glorious bubble on or around 2016 halving.
However, fully expected events in any market almost never come to fruition.
So, what unexpected scenario(s) could unfold?

a. An antibubble (hard down) caused by some unforeseen circumstances?
b. Mining demise, hence a decreased network ability to process transactions resulting in bitcoin "crisis"?
c. Developers focus on other crypto, hence bitcoin becoming "boring" and fizzling away?

Yet, I cannot foresee any of these possibilities actually happening, so maybe instead of anti-bubble we would just have a boring flat market all the way?

I don't think you fully understand bitcoin yet my friend, B is not a possible situation. I'll support all the transactions my self if every other bitcoin miner leaves the network.. you'll have to trust I don't double spend with 100% of the hashing power though.

However the odds of that.. are lower than me winning the lottery 10 times in a row.

[johnyj]

Even if you anticipated it, there are some hard facts that will have a deep impact for the supply

For example, currently lots of mining farms sell part of their coin to deal with the mining cost, I guess at least 1000 coin daily are dumped on exchanges. When reward is cut by half, they will have significant less coin to mine, and also much less coin to sell. So the daily coin sell pressure from miners will be cut by half. On the other hand, since they are paying the same cost but mine only 1/2 of the coin as before, all of their coins will be deeply underwater, thus they can not liquidate those coins at a loss, but only hold on to them, and scale down the mining operation. So the overall impact on daily coin supply will be significant

[manitou]

If miners know (and they will know) that price is going up, before the halving they will try to not shell, so there will be a shortage of mined coins before the halving, triggering a rally.

Is this correct??

[gentlemand]

If miners know (and they will know) that price is going up, before the halving they will try to not shell, so there will be a shortage of mined coins before the halving, triggering a rally.

Is this correct??

Mined coins only make up a small amount of the coins sold every day. If there's more demand it's possible more hoarded coins will become available. A rise is far from guaranteed just because there are fewer new coins arriving every day. If there's not enough demand then the supply becomes less relevant.