PsychoticBoy
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September 28, 2012, 01:09:54 PM |
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Usagi has 210 shares in ABM and has been buying more recently. ABM IPO'd at 0.25 and has a 5 day avg of 0.255 BTC/share. 210x0.255 = 53 BTC. Usagi lists the "real value" of his shares as 73.5 BTC
So I had a look if that was defensible
Ive asked the operator to confirm this, so perhaps Im wrong, but as far as I can tell, ABM has as only asset one BFL single, thats mining with horrendous electricity costs and no ASIC upgrade path. 25% of the mining revenue is kept to cover costs. ABM has issued 1000 shares.
Correct! You can read the ABM thread here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=78638.0Greetz
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Puppet
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September 28, 2012, 01:12:12 PM |
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Thank you. I read it, but thought I might have missed something, like a solid gold cooler on your BFL ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) .
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Bitcoin Oz
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September 28, 2012, 01:12:34 PM |
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Back to the topic of BMF and creative accounting. Usagi's spreadsheet is becoming more and more interesting with this new "real value" column. Looking over some of the holdings.
Usagi has 210 shares in ABM and has been buying more recently. ABM IPO'd at 0.25 and has a 5 day avg of 0.255 BTC/share. 210x0.255 = 53 BTC. Usagi lists the "real value" of his shares as 73.5 BTC
So I had a look if that was defensible
Ive asked the operator to confirm this, so perhaps Im wrong, but as far as I can tell, ABM has as only asset one BFL single, thats mining with horrendous electricity costs and no ASIC upgrade path. 25% of the mining revenue is kept to cover costs. ABM has issued 1000 shares.
So, usagi thinks the "real value" of this one $599 single is 1000*73.5/210
350 BTC
or ~$4000
or
0.42 BTC per MH
Usagi, can you explain to your shareholders why you think 350 BTC is the "real value" for ABM, and not, say, 75% of ~40 BTC going rate for a used BFL single?
Because CPA insures them ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
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Factory
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September 28, 2012, 01:35:54 PM |
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Because ABM is a mining company, not a bond, I value it at a P/E multiple.
P/E multiple = current market price divided by past 12 mo earnings. You don't apply your own made up multiple to current earnings and state that as what something is valued- that is completely ridiculous. Also, even if you understood P/E on the most basic level; it has very little relevance to proper accounting.
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PsychoticBoy
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September 28, 2012, 01:40:54 PM Last edit: September 28, 2012, 02:32:16 PM by PsychoticBoy |
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Because ABM is a mining company, not a bond, I value it at a P/E multiple.
P/E multiple = current market price divided by past 12 mo earnings. You don't apply your own made up multiple to current earnings and state that as what something is valued- that is completely ridiculous. Also, even if you understood P/E on the most basic level; it has very little relevance to proper accounting.
Despite being called a "Mining Company", the issuance functions much like a bond and shares much more in common with a traditional mining bond than it has in common with a traditional company.
From ABM's contract:
"Shares do not represent an ownership share in the mining hardware and in the event of liquidation. "
On a side not, ABM also states their electricity costs are 0,24 EUR KW/h. This rate is so staggeringly high that it largely negates the low wattage of the single. Factor in that the entire operation is 1 single (earnings rest on one piece of equipment that can break) and it seems like a pretty bad investment.Apparently you have not read my thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=78638.msg919121#msg919121In the event of liquidation all share holders will get a final dividend. This will include: - last time mining revenue payment - a share in the mining hardware sales income Greetz
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Factory
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September 28, 2012, 01:56:40 PM |
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Because ABM is a mining company, not a bond, I value it at a P/E multiple.
P/E multiple = current market price divided by past 12 mo earnings. You don't apply your own made up multiple to current earnings and state that as what something is valued- that is completely ridiculous. Also, even if you understood P/E on the most basic level; it has very little relevance to proper accounting. It's kind of a big joke, first you attacked me for overvaluing my securities compared to their spot price and now that I am undervaluing them you are inventing some other reason why I am overvaluing them. The way you keep changing your tune it makes me think you're just looking for an excuse to accuse me of scamming. I think that's pretty pathetic but I guess you're welcome to your opinion. A P/E ratio has little relevance to a balance sheet. The fact that you are not using the term correctly makes it less relevant. Some of my previous posts advocate using book value as a basis for specific calculations, as it is a 'current' value and not dependent on a 12 month period. A P/E ratio is current market price divided by past 12 month earnings. Since ABM and BMF both have not existed for 12 months, a P/E will be inaccurate. You can not simply extrapolate by multiplying the past 3 months by 4 or 4 months by 3 to reach a 12 month period, or however you seem to think it works. Your new system basically allows you to just make up random values that aren't based on real information. I have not 'changed my tune.' All of my posts are very in-line with one another. Anyone can go to my post history and read the posts I made regarding your business operations. They would see I use bath math and principles of finance to illustrate specific points and show when you are incorrect.
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Puppet
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September 28, 2012, 03:04:48 PM |
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How do you explain the average market price of .45? don't you think my valuation of 0.35 is actually conservative?
Oh thats easy. Two days ago you held 200 ABM shares and they traded for 0.125. Today you have 210 shares and they traded for 0.45. Do I really need to explain? For those not seeing it, these are very very low volume shares with an enormous spread. Usagi seems to focus primarily on making his books look better than they really are, so he buys a few shares way above of any reasonable NAV estimate, so GLSBE share price shoots up, and if no one sells, which happens a lot with those low volume assets, particularly without any bid walls, he can put those inflated values in his books. He did the same with CPA, BMF, DMC etc. Spend a few BTC and you can put a multiple of it as "asset value" in your books. And even then he seems to think its a good idea to increase that value further. .
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pyrkne
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September 28, 2012, 05:57:42 PM |
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At the risk of being called "troll" or "sockpuppet" I was going to ask a question about BMF. Since discussion is discouraged here it should move to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=113708.0.
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Maged
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September 29, 2012, 01:32:52 AM |
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All I can say is: it will be interesting to see how this performs as the BTC price decreases. usagi, you should be proud of how well you did despite the increase in the price of BTC.
I am not sure if you understand what has happened. I encourage you to read the entire thread. A purchase of BMF @ IPO and sale today would net a ROI of around -40%. If you knew bitcoin was going up, why would you invest bitcoins in something that is tied to fiat instead of just investing in bitcoin? Trust me, if the bitcoin price had dropped to $2, you'd be celebrating BMF right now. Because of bitcoin's volitility, it is only useful to value companies in USD, and thus should be treated as a regular USD investment and not part of your BTC investment.
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pyrkne
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September 29, 2012, 01:37:41 AM |
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All I can say is: it will be interesting to see how this performs as the BTC price decreases. usagi, you should be proud of how well you did despite the increase in the price of BTC.
I am not sure if you understand what has happened. I encourage you to read the entire thread. A purchase of BMF @ IPO and sale today would net a ROI of around -40%. If you knew bitcoin was going up, why would you invest bitcoins in something that is tied to fiat instead of just investing in bitcoin? Trust me, if the bitcoin price had dropped to $2, you'd be celebrating BMF right now. Because of bitcoin's volitility, it is only useful to value companies in USD, and thus should be treated as a regular USD investment and not part of your BTC investment. I am not sure that you are understanding completely. You say that investors "would be celebrating BMF right now." That seems true, but isn't it also just as true for other assets?
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Factory
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September 29, 2012, 01:40:17 AM |
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All I can say is: it will be interesting to see how this performs as the BTC price decreases. usagi, you should be proud of how well you did despite the increase in the price of BTC.
I am not sure if you understand what has happened. I encourage you to read the entire thread. A purchase of BMF @ IPO and sale today would net a ROI of around -40%. If you knew bitcoin was going up, why would you invest bitcoins in something that is tied to fiat instead of just investing in bitcoin? Trust me, if the bitcoin price had dropped to $2, you'd be celebrating BMF right now. Because of bitcoin's volitility, it is only useful to value companies in USD, and thus should be treated as a regular USD investment and not part of your BTC investment. My most recent posts are not talking about determining the value of BMF; they are talking about how to properly calculate ROI and differentiating between total return. If bitcoin dropped to $2, investors who paid usd for btc and bought BMF would still be worse off than if they had just bought bitcoin with USD and held. Both of those routes would lead to a loss, but as BMF has a ROI of -40%, those individuals would have a greater loss. Please read this post and see that 'Investor D' is an example of an individual you think would be celebrating if btc fell: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=112734.msg1226979#msg1226979
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augustocroppo
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September 29, 2012, 04:46:03 AM |
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Motion passed by 100%. All of my shareholders are happy. Voted Yea:8148 Voted Nay:0 WOW! Congratulations, Usagi. Not one single nay vote after all accusations against your management... Priceless! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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Deprived
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September 29, 2012, 04:55:38 AM |
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Motion passed by 100%. All of my shareholders are happy. Motion ID:148 Ticker symbol: BMF Expires:2012-09-28 Required to pass motion:0% Motion text This is an opinion poll with no actionable result. As a shareholder, are you satisfied with BMF's management style? Please carefully consider the performance of the fund, and the actions I have taken to protect shareholders including weekly letters to shareholders, full disclosure of assets and trading, motions 80 and 124, and the current daily dividends policy before answering. Thank you and have a nice day. Note: If you are at all unsatisfied with the performance of this fund, as a shareholder, please do not hesitate to contact us at bmf@tsukino.ca and maybe we can work together to resolve any problems you are experiencing. Thank you! Voting result % to pass motion: 0 Voted Yea:8148 Voted Nay:0 Meh : 1. A large chunk of those votes were you I'd bet. 2. "All of my shareholders are happy." is not supported by the facts. All the vote shows is that the ones who VOTED were happy. 3. Anyone with half a brain who wasn't happy would have sold out by now - and no longer have a vote. 4. Why do you think you were able to buy back shares at below IPO price? It can't be because the shareholders were ecstatic about your management of the company. You bought out all the unhappy ones (at a loss to them) - what's left is those who don't pay attention, the terminally stupid and probably a few unfortunate souls who haven't been around for a while. Typical usagi spin/gloss. The vote wasn't even announced in the main BMF thread - just in one of your numerous "Important: I'm an attention whore - please listen to my bull-shit and don't argue with me" threads. Oh - and how DID you get more yes votes than have EVER been in circulation? You didn't by some chance transfer unsold ones to yourself to vote with (then send them back) did you? I asked nefario about that particular nasty little trick a while back (by PM) but got no answer - so assume it IS possible for a company owner to generate as many yes votes on a motion as they like.
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EskimoBob
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September 29, 2012, 08:59:38 AM |
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Motion passed by 100%. All of my shareholders are happy. Voted Yea:8148 Voted Nay:0 WOW! Congratulations, Usagi. Not one single nay vote after all accusations against your management... Priceless! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Usagi and your new shill, I have a question: As of today, BMF only has 4983 shares outstanding and staring from 2012.09.19, BMF never had more than 5347 shares outstanding. So, how did you manage to get 8148 "Yea's"?
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While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head. BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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augustocroppo
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September 29, 2012, 02:30:56 PM |
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Usagi and your new shill, I have a question: As of today, BMF only has 4983 shares outstanding and staring from 2012.09.19, BMF never had more than 5347 shares outstanding. So, how did you manage to get 8148 "Yea's"?
I did not! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ShillA shill, plant, or stooge is a person who publicly helps a person or organization without disclosing that he has a close relationship with that person or organization. Shill typically refers to someone who purposely gives onlookers the impression that he is an enthusiastic independent customer of a seller (or marketer of ideas) for whom he is secretly working. I do not have any relationship with Usagi or his business. We only share the same membership status in this forum. It appears that the outstanding shares are not a safe indicator to determine how many votes a motion can receive. This situation only shows that you and other users have been making clueless accusations against Usagi management, since you cannot even agree with the stock market vote system. Let's verify some available data: Ticker ID Created Expired Result Yea Nay Total % pass BMF 61 2012-06-13 2012-06-16 passed 2676 63 2739 0 BMF 80 2012-06-24 2012-06-25 passed 3234 5 3239 0 BMF 124 2012-09-09 2012-09-12 passed 3011 456 3467 0 BMF 148 2012-09-26 2012-09-28 passed 8148 0 8148 0
https://glbse.com/asset/old_motions/BMFFrom the motions already carried by Usagi it is an indication that the system is able to receive nay votes. But, why so many votes? I am not sure, but I will try to guess. Every security issued must give a right of vote. If this is the case, then it is completely reasonable as to why there are so many votes, including Usagi votes: https://glbse.com/asset/view/BMF![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fimageshack.us%2Fa%2Fimg268%2F5944%2Fglbse.png&t=665&c=Mw0UtfFt5dXlJg) Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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BitcoinINV
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September 29, 2012, 03:23:36 PM |
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Interesting GLBSE may be buggy, not correctly accounting personal and company non-sold shares. https://glbse.com/api/quantity_trading/BMF currently shows 4983 In theory, transfer of shares in and out to a personal account would allow to manipulate votes. (though expensive 2* 0.2 % fee) *confused* But at least the result of those motions should not be affected by this discrepancy. It does manipulate, as many times as you push that button is as many times as it votes. How do I now this I just recently had a vote I clicked the button 3 times, You all know how slow it is lol. At the end it had more votes then I have shares total LMFAO.
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MPOE-PR
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September 29, 2012, 03:26:42 PM |
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This is pretty concerning however, "GLBSE reporting the data wrong". How is that possible? Maybe the result to every motion to date is in fact bogus?
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bitcoinbear
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September 29, 2012, 03:29:12 PM |
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This is pretty concerning however, "GLBSE reporting the data wrong". How is that possible? Maybe the result to every motion to date is in fact bogus?
Or did Usagi just get caught with their pants down fixing the poll? Why would you even do that for such a worthless poll?
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nimda
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September 29, 2012, 03:31:16 PM |
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Still wondering why CPA hasn't paid out on its NAV insurance contract...
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MPOE-PR
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September 29, 2012, 03:35:33 PM |
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This is pretty concerning however, "GLBSE reporting the data wrong". How is that possible? Maybe the result to every motion to date is in fact bogus?
Or did Usagi just get caught with their pants down fixing the poll? Why would you even do that for such a worthless poll? In context that probably is the likelier explanation.
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