Scenario :- "Chinese gov crackdown on power wasting bitcoin mines" would wipe off over half the globes' mining power in a day, diff is high and a huge chunk of hash disappearing suddenly could stall the chain or at the very least blocks would take days to solve until adjustment day, god forbid we should be so unlucky that the hash falls off a day or two after diff adj.
That scenario just creates an opportunity for other miners to take their market share.
Correct me if i am wrong but Miners are really just tx processors, the purpose of mining is to secure the ledger by adding subsequent data that requires a certain amount of work completed (with lottery factor) and block rewards are just the reward you get for helping secure the ledger?
As a result falling of hash is not about market share for miners but about security, namely in the form of transactions confirmation and time.
You're not accounting for the exchange rate. The exchange rate essentially caps the hashrate already, discounting those with subsidized electricity or no concept of profit and loss. That cap defines the size of the
market for mining.
I don't think you quite understand the question in this thread. Anyway, BTC in and off itself is a closed system it can only be effected from within. Market has never responded to changes in hash rate, it responds to investor confidence and speculative activity. But in response to your statement.... if today the hash rate dropped to half , here are things
you haven't considered.
1) It takes X amount of hash to hopefully keep a steady stram of ten minute blocks , we half the amount of hash ....what will happen?
2) With unconfirmed tx piling up in mempools , some instances will crash compounding the problem across service providers and some miners
3) Investor confidence in BTC will fall....leading to a price crash.....
So in this scenario, rather that the remaining miners making a profit, they will be
1) Stuck with high diff blocks
2) Facing a price crash , so more miners will fall off
It becomes a loop whereby miners fall off, blocks get slower, price falls.
But this is not the point of this thread, a bit too early to be going off topic.