What don't we know about the Chinese economy?

[Daniela_grefi]

What don't we know about the Chinese economy?
What are things which the general public doesn't know about the Chinese economy?

[1715495790]

1715495790

[LiteCoinGuy]

what we dont know, we dont know.

[neurotypical]

What don't we know about the Chinese economy?
What are things which the general public doesn't know about the Chinese economy?

It's pretty obvious the real crisis will be the one China and not in Europe. What we've seen in Greece is shit nothing, wait until the Chinese fictional bubble of bad quality mass produced products break. In my opinion it will happen sooner or later and it will be way worse than Europe having problems with a couple countries.

[funkenstein]

What don't we know about the Chinese economy?
What are things which the general public doesn't know about the Chinese economy?

Mostly, everything.  I see so much written about China and my experience in travels there has shown me most all of it is false. 

[jeannemadrigal2]

I suspect that just like every economy in the world, it is highly manipulated.  Which usually means that the typical business cycle is exacerbated, guaranteeing a bubble/burst in stead of a simple up/down.

[Pab]

Maybe that what we dont see or we dont want to see is that China is everywhere.I see here new Volvo cars,really good,new designe,same sweden solidy,made in Sweden anyway Volvo belongs to Chinise

China is rebuilding Silk Road,Road to Europe,one day it will be possible to see chinise trucks on european highways

[bitedge]

I think most people don't realise just how fake and completely untrue the numbers are. If someones performance is judged by a number they will manipulate that number in their own favore. This is true in so many institutions around the world but in China its turned up to 11, everywhere.  

So all the figures coming out of China are fake, generally to make things appear better than they are.

[funkenstein]

I think most people don't realise just how fake and completely untrue the numbers are. If someones performance is judged by a number they will manipulate that number in their own favore. This is true in so many institutions around the world but in China its turned up to 11, everywhere.  

So all the figures coming out of China are fake, generally to make things appear better than they are.

A good way to know a figure is fake is that often a fiat symbol is placed next to it after it is made up. 

[MF Doom]

they have very little air pollution requirements, the equipment to reduce emissions cost lost of money, therefore not having to reduce emissions allows them to produce goods cheaper.

This also leads to horrendous air quality.

Yet, the global warming crowd doen't seem to want to focus in on the worlds largest polluter:

http://www.reuters.com/news/picture/who-are-the-worlds-biggest-polluters?articleId=USRTXRKSI

[tyrexs]

yes we don't know but we know about the Chinese people is smart business and them produce goods cheaper.

[MF Doom]

yes we don't know but we know about the Chinese people is smart business and them produce goods cheaper.

They are smart people, yes, but the real reason for their good being so cheap is:

1) extremely low wages, which are subsidized by the government
2) like I mentioned above, little to no emissions requirements, resulting in cheaper production facilities and operating costs
3) their goods are physically cheaply made, low quality and low quality control
4) reverse engineering. a lot of their tech products are "reverse engineered" resulting in lower development costs

[oblivi]

they have very little air pollution requirements, the equipment to reduce emissions cost lost of money, therefore not having to reduce emissions allows them to produce goods cheaper.

This also leads to horrendous air quality.

Yet, the global warming crowd doen't seem to want to focus in on the worlds largest polluter:

http://www.reuters.com/news/picture/who-are-the-worlds-biggest-polluters?articleId=USRTXRKSI

China will go through a series of environmental crisis, then economic crisis, then social crisis followed with mass riots popping everywhere. Entropy will deliver those sooner or later. Its a bubble because its not sustainable, and all they did trying to cheat the system will be for nothing.

[botany]

yes we don't know but we know about the Chinese people is smart business and them produce goods cheaper.

They are smart people, yes, but the real reason for their good being so cheap is:

1) extremely low wages, which are subsidized by the government
2) like I mentioned above, little to no emissions requirements, resulting in cheaper production facilities and operating costs
3) their goods are physically cheaply made, low quality and low quality control
4) reverse engineering. a lot of their tech products are "reverse engineered" resulting in lower development costs

I disagree with the low quality and low quality control. If you have Nike and Apple products being made in China, I doubt if contracts can be won without ensuring quality. These goods are being produced in China because they are made at an economical cost and adhere to quality.

If you are talking about generic products, you do get inferior products in all parts of the world.

[OROBTC]

...

China lies about is numbers.  Look at harder to fake numbers like electricity production as well as import & export figures.

China has just put the big "Holy Grail" NatGas pipeline project(s) on ice with Russia.  This was supposed to be a huge deal, billions and billions.  And avoiding the "Petrodollar" as well.

I guess China & Russia will not kill King Dollar yet...

[Deuceisgood]

...

China lies about is numbers.  Look at harder to fake numbers like electricity production as well as import & export figures.

China has just put the big "Holy Grail" NatGas pipeline project(s) on ice with Russia.  This was supposed to be a huge deal, billions and billions.  And avoiding the "Petrodollar" as well.

I guess China & Russia will not kill King Dollar yet...

There is a debt crisis in China waiting for a catalyst to ignite it. Everyone thought 10% GDP growth would go on forever, that all 1.4-bil Chinese would move to coastal cities, buy a car, refrigerator, etc, etc. So state-run and private businesses took on as much debt as they could to grab the biggest piece of the pie they could. All that debt needs to unravel. Real Estates is egregiously over priced. Construction quality is crap. Skyscrapers go up, are finished, and will never be safe or liveable. They were only built to turn a quick buck off of the initial buyer-speculators.

It will implode, quickly or slowly, who's to say.

At the same time, there are real business growing and thriving. Alibaba is an example. There are others of course ...

[OROBTC]

...

China lies about is numbers.  Look at harder to fake numbers like electricity production as well as import & export figures.

China has just put the big "Holy Grail" NatGas pipeline project(s) on ice with Russia.  This was supposed to be a huge deal, billions and billions.  And avoiding the "Petrodollar" as well.

I guess China & Russia will not kill King Dollar yet...

There is a debt crisis in China waiting for a catalyst to ignite it. Everyone thought 10% GDP growth would go on forever, that all 1.4-bil Chinese would move to coastal cities, buy a car, refrigerator, etc, etc. So state-run and private businesses took on as much debt as they could to grab the biggest piece of the pie they could. All that debt needs to unravel. Real Estates is egregiously over priced. Construction quality is crap. Skyscrapers go up, are finished, and will never be safe or liveable. They were only built to turn a quick buck off of the initial buyer-speculators.

It will implode, quickly or slowly, who's to say.

At the same time, there are real business growing and thriving. Alibaba is an example. There are others of course ...

^^ That is very true. ^^

China has huge debt problems, the problem (for us trying to analyze their debt) is that those numbers are fudged as well.

I also agree with your comment that some businesses are doing fine.  We, for example, buy some 30% - 35% of our bearings (by $-value) from China.  The prices are great, and we have located factories that produce fairly good pieces (bearing reliability is problem with Chinese).

What I do not know is whether or not our suppliers in China are healthy...

[Deuceisgood]

^^ That is very true. ^^

China has huge debt problems, the problem (for us trying to analyze their debt) is that those numbers are fudged as well.

I also agree with your comment that some businesses are doing fine.  We, for example, buy some 30% - 35% of our bearings (by $-value) from China.  The prices are great, and we have located factories that produce fairly good pieces (bearing reliability is problem with Chinese).

What I do not know is whether or not our suppliers in China are healthy...

If they are still shipping parts to you, then count them 'healthy.'

In China, 'healthy' is difficult for a foreigner to discern because they have different standards. Many business executives today were raised amid the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution wherein Mao orchestrated food shortages in order to starve the population down to a more manageable level. So for many of today's executives, if they are not starving, they are 'healthy.' Yes, I'm mixing the ideas of physical body health and business health, but you get the point.

I'm not being funny or exaggerating. Their business may be losing money, but they will limp along and struggle to make it work as long as possible.

Not dead = healthy

[bojan92]

i think that the chinese economy is very good and very stable. The greatest companies around the world invest money in China and build their factories there, everyone who wants to work can find work, and if you are good and you have the knowledge needed you can be an engineer.

[arallmuus]

chinese economy is very good and very stable

Good , YES but not stable because it is increasing rapidly. The economics growth is pretty huge and it is deemed that their economics could be the largest by few years later

The greatest companies around the world invest money in China and build their factories there

There are two things that will attract investor to open up a factory in a foreign country which is High number of labor and low wages for the labor and China is the safe haven for that. The country's population has been keep on increasing and poverty is the main reason why there are tons of labor there, simply a low wages will just satisfy them rather than not being able to feed their family ( a harsh truth indeed but still a truth of the current situation )

[Topbanker]

Chinese stockmarket and actually the entire housing market is a huge pump system.

The dump is happening now on the stockmarkets. Just 1 of the many bubbles thats blowing up.

The big questions are ofc can the Chinese governement contain then so it doesn't spread to rest of the world or has it already spread and is it to late?

If its to late i expect a drop in western markets september-october.