Does More Accepted/Hour = More Blocks Found?

[Meatball]

So, I've been experimenting with using a pool or going solo.  I'm running about 2.8 GH/sec across a few boxes/cards and have noticed that when I run in a pool, (Slush's for the most part) I'm getting less "Accepted" per hour compared to when I'm running it as a solo miner.

So, for example, one of my cards is a 6950 with unlocked shaders OC'd to 880/625.  Running it for about a day in Slush's pool I was seeing an average of about 270 accepted per hour, yet running the same card solo for a day I was getting about 330 accepted per hour.  That's about 20% more.  I know that running locally I no longer get any stale results and the occasional "Connection problem" that stops mining for a few moments goes away, so I'm betting the mining is more efficient locally.

If that's truly the case, is it expected that I'd have a 20% better chance to find a block in a given round if I was mining solo?

Just wondering...

Thanks!

[Genrobo]

It's a lottery no matter how you look at it.
Pools suffer from variance.
To get a serious look at the values you'd need to run for about a week solo, and about a week in a pool.
Then compare the median values, and deviations.
Averages don't get you anywhere when variance, pool hopping, and just plain rotten luck exists.

[Meatball]

I agree that it's a lottery, but wouldn't more "Accepted" results basically equate to having more lottery tickets in a given blocks lifespan?

[Genrobo]

It would, but regardless of which pool you're in, local or external, your cards are only solving shares of 1 difficulty each.
That's what the "accepted" is.
It might be better to mine locally just due to the fact you don't have to connect to an external pool.
(External pools can crash/go down)
So it's an extra point of failure.
If you're mining by yourself and your own connection goes down, well, that would have affected you regardless, but if you connect to an external pool, and they go down, you won't be mining either.


You're probably best mining on your own due to that fact.
You should solve a block every week or two with the Gh/s you're pulling, unless you have bad luck.

[Meatball]

Anyone else have any thoughts on this?  I'd hate to be wasting 20% of my mining power due to lower accepted rates if it's truly the case that more accepted/hour = more chance to find a block per hour.

[LegitBit]

Anyone else have any thoughts on this?  I'd hate to be wasting 20% of my mining power due to lower accepted rates if it's truly the case that more accepted/hour = more chance to find a block per hour.

Yes meatball you are correct, technically you are getting more chances to win the lottery by mining locally.

Pools ensure at least some bitcoin, but the trade-off is more points of failure and less efficiency, which for most is acceptable considering the odds of solo mining.

[Meatball]

Yeah, I'm kind of back and forth.  I'm just about at 5 GH/sec.  Probably enough to be somewhat successful at solo mining, but I'm not positive   And the 20% thing bugs me    Basically like I'm giving up a full GH/sec in 'chances'.

[LegitBit]

Yeah, I'm kind of back and forth.  I'm just about at 5 GH/sec.  Probably enough to be somewhat successful at solo mining, but I'm not positive   And the 20% thing bugs me    Basically like I'm giving up a full GH/sec in 'chances'.

Yep, if you have that much power you are bound to find at least one block in a month if you are lucky.

Just remember who to tip. 

[Meatball]

Hehe, I'm going to wait a few hours to get a full days worth of hashing on Slush so I have at least a few days to extrapolate out from.  If I find a block in the first 2 weeks solo a tip will be on it's way