kosovito
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June 02, 2011, 02:45:46 PM 

Hi.
Where or How can I know, when difficulty gonna change (up or down) BEFORE it happens??
Thanks

Please sir, give me any coin 135T7F27z7Mtvwffz359BE1zSfYgT1oJ8S




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kosovito
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June 02, 2011, 05:00:43 PM 

ty so much

Please sir, give me any coin 135T7F27z7Mtvwffz359BE1zSfYgT1oJ8S



kjj
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June 02, 2011, 11:37:06 PM 

Divide the current block number by 2016. Subtract the remainder from 2016. Your answer is the number of blocks between now and the next retarget.

17Np17BSrpnHCZ2pgtiMNnhjnsWJ2TMqq8 I routinely ignore posters with paid advertising in their sigs. You should too.



BombaUcigasa
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June 03, 2011, 12:27:09 AM 

Divide the current block number by 2016. Subtract the remainder from 2016. Your answer is the number of blocks between now and the next retarget.
Actually to be more precise (a tool could be created but it's not really a precise moment in time to be predicted), you can do the following on http://blockexplorer.com/q Get the current block number: http://blockexplorer.com/q/getblockcount Get the next retarget block number: http://blockexplorer.com/q/nextretarget Get the current average interval: http://blockexplorer.com/q/intervalFor example now, it's block 128249, difficulty change in (129023  128249) = 774 blocks that take on average 504 seconds => 108.4 hours => 4.515 days. According to Wolfram Alpha, the exact difficulty change will be on 3:47:18 pm EEST  Tuesday, June 7, 2011.




kjj
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June 03, 2011, 04:17:35 AM 

Divide the current block number by 2016. Subtract the remainder from 2016. Your answer is the number of blocks between now and the next retarget.
Actually to be more precise (a tool could be created but it's not really a precise moment in time to be predicted), you can do the following on http://blockexplorer.com/q Get the current block number: http://blockexplorer.com/q/getblockcount Get the next retarget block number: http://blockexplorer.com/q/nextretarget Get the current average interval: http://blockexplorer.com/q/intervalFor example now, it's block 128249, difficulty change in (129023  128249) = 774 blocks that take on average 504 seconds => 108.4 hours => 4.515 days. According to Wolfram Alpha, the exact difficulty change will be on 3:47:18 pm EEST  Tuesday, June 7, 2011. I'll bet you 1 BTC that the change does not happen during that second.

17Np17BSrpnHCZ2pgtiMNnhjnsWJ2TMqq8 I routinely ignore posters with paid advertising in their sigs. You should too.



interfect


June 03, 2011, 07:40:04 AM 

So how much money is there to be made by predicting the direction and time of the next difficulty change, assuming it has a straightforward effect on price, and buying/selling loads of coins?




kjj
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June 03, 2011, 07:43:33 AM 

So how much money is there to be made by predicting the direction and time of the next difficulty change, assuming it has a straightforward effect on price, and buying/selling loads of coins?
Not straightforward at all. The USD to BTC ratio and the difficulty most likely form a complex system.

17Np17BSrpnHCZ2pgtiMNnhjnsWJ2TMqq8 I routinely ignore posters with paid advertising in their sigs. You should too.



BombaUcigasa
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June 03, 2011, 11:06:03 AM 

Divide the current block number by 2016. Subtract the remainder from 2016. Your answer is the number of blocks between now and the next retarget.
Actually to be more precise (a tool could be created but it's not really a precise moment in time to be predicted), you can do the following on http://blockexplorer.com/q Get the current block number: http://blockexplorer.com/q/getblockcount Get the next retarget block number: http://blockexplorer.com/q/nextretarget Get the current average interval: http://blockexplorer.com/q/intervalFor example now, it's block 128249, difficulty change in (129023  128249) = 774 blocks that take on average 504 seconds => 108.4 hours => 4.515 days. According to Wolfram Alpha, the exact difficulty change will be on 3:47:18 pm EEST  Tuesday, June 7, 2011. I'll bet you 1 BTC that the change does not happen during that second. Well, of course it won't happen on that second, I wouldn't counterbet, the chances are worse than me finding a whole block with my CPU today. New estimate: 2:53:48 am EEST  Tuesday, June 7, 2011 Notice it has decreased by 12 hours over a period of a day. This is due to increased mining activity and/or localized luck ratio in finding blocks. It might not even happen on the June 7th. Could anyone build a better BitcoinX profit tool that takes into account difficulty changes during the given period?




ene
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June 03, 2011, 12:47:21 PM 

So how much money is there to be made by predicting the direction and time of the next difficulty change, assuming it has a straightforward effect on price, and buying/selling loads of coins?
According to the weak efficient market hypothesis, none. Everybody is able to take the next difficulty change into account when pricing, so they already set their prices appropriate to it. https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Efficient_market_hypothesis




nazgulnarsil
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June 04, 2011, 11:00:16 AM 

Could anyone build a better BitcoinX profit tool that takes into account difficulty changes during the given period?
of course but I won't share for free. all it really takes is a field for guessing price and difficulty changes as percentages with the default being the historical rates.




saqwe
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June 11, 2011, 09:24:54 PM 

Divide the current block number by 2016. Subtract the remainder from 2016. Your answer is the number of blocks between now and the next retarget.
thanks for the info




