When will GPU mining become unprofitable? (electricity $>BTC generated)

[retrapher]

I have a 660 Ti GTX card and am trying to sell it to get a 7970. What's the low and high ball estimate for when the electricity costs surpass BTC generation (in a pool)? I already need a video card for gaming, so don't consider capital costs.

[Blyzon]

Probably pretty soon.  The block subsidy is getting cut in half in December, and ASICs are poised to marginalize the hashrate of the GPU miners.

[Fjordbit]

I have a 660 Ti GTX card and am trying to sell it to get a 7970. What's the low and high ball estimate for when the electricity costs surpass BTC generation (in a pool)? I already need a video card for gaming, so don't consider capital costs.

It's hard to know without knowing your electricity rate. On top of that, we don't really know how quickly ASICs will come online. If I had to guess, though, I'd say mid-January.

[Stephen Gornick]

It's hard to know without knowing your electricity rate. On top of that, we don't really know how quickly ASICs will come online. If I had to guess, though, I'd say mid-January.

Unless the exchange rate rises from here, block 209,999 is likely the last block that anyone mining with a GPU and paying normal rates for electricity (e.g., $0.15 per kWh) can mine profitably

That's about 60 days from now.

We just don't know the future exchange rate though.

[gyverlb]

Don't forget to factor your hardware depreciation in: if you make $50 after electricity costs are deducted but your hardware's value loses $75, you are out of $25.

Buying brand new hardware today isn't worth it. In fact you may not even be able to get profitable with used hardware when you factor in the shipping costs, risks of hardware failure, Paypal/eBay costs, ...

GPU mining is only profitable for people who have reached break-even (all hardware costs paid back with profits) or are about to do so.

[mybitcoincharts]

I have a 660 Ti GTX card and am trying to sell it to get a 7970. What's the low and high ball estimate for when the electricity costs surpass BTC generation (in a pool)? I already need a video card for gaming, so don't consider capital costs.

If you state your electricity prices it will be easier to tell. I did some calculations a month ago, and with my electricity costs here in Germany (0.25 EUR per kilowatt hour) even FPGA boards would result in losses.

[Fjordbit]

It's hard to know without knowing your electricity rate. On top of that, we don't really know how quickly ASICs will come online. If I had to guess, though, I'd say mid-January.

Unless the exchange rate rises from here, block 209,999 is likely the last block that anyone mining with a GPU and paying normal rates for electricity (e.g., $0.15 per kWh) can mine profitably

It's hard to say. With the exchange at $12, electricity at .15, and reward at 25btc, I'm still showing a profit for most GPU setups at a difficulty of 5,000,000, and I haven't updated the GPU section of my spreadsheet in a year, so there might be better ones in terms of performance. In this case MH/J is the most important factor.

As an aside BFL FPGAs are just above 11 months ROI under that circumstance.