World Trade, Commodities Prices and Stocks DOWN Hard; Recession Coming Soon?

[OROBTC]

...

Zero Hedge, MarketWatch and other sites (inc. Armstrong) are noting some disturbing trends:

1) World trade is slipping fast.  China is showing loss of exports.  Often a decline in world trade is a forward indicator of a recession.  I have not seen figures for the USA yest, but the US$ being strong is likely to affect US exports.

Link to Zero Hedge discussion: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-23/us-recession-imminent-world-trade-slumps-most-financial-crisis

2) Many commodity prices are way down, including gold and energy.  Very few commodities (paper prices anyway) are up.  Coal is getting crushed, I have seen comments that "Coal is dead", maybe a contrary indicator.  Nonetheless, commodities are down, at least in part, and particularly for some (copper) China is slowing.  ZH also reported somewhere today/yesterday that electricity production (a harder number to "make up") is down.  Oil is down.  Even non-industrials like gold and COFFEE (latter way down).

Low commodity prices reflect weak demand vs. supply, as well as lower earnings for exporting countries like Brazil & Australia.

3)  Anyone who is watching has heard about China's stock market severe bear market, down some 30% (or more) from its peak.  Yes, China had a huge run-up, and is still positive for 2015, but LOTS of unsophisticated investors (farmers & housewives) were drawn in.  Money lost in the stock market, becomes real loss of wealth once positions are sold at a loss...  The US markets are down sharply this week.

*   *   *

We are seven years or so into the current weak "recovery" (term debatable).  But, if other things hit us as well (Greece, "Black Swans", etc.), then an ugly recession would be a very realistic possibility.

The economic indicators do not look good.  Surprises will likely compound our plight.

This re-raises an important question we have all seen for years: Where ought we put our money?

[tyz]

One more important factor is the increasing unemployment rate in emerging countries. It is the first time since 12 years that unemployment rate is increasing there. I believe that we are heading directly into a world recession and the main reason is the immense debt all over the world.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/846651fa-2f85-11e5-91ac-a5e17d9b4cff.html#axzz3guK3rl6U

[botany]

2) Many commodity prices are way down, including gold and energy.  Very few commodities (paper prices anyway) are up.  Coal is getting crushed, I have seen comments that "Coal is dead", maybe a contrary indicator.  Nonetheless, commodities are down, at least in part, and particularly for some (copper) China is slowing.  ZH also reported somewhere today/yesterday that electricity production (a harder number to "make up") is down.  Oil is down.  Even non-industrials like gold and COFFEE (latter way down).

Low commodity prices reflect weak demand vs. supply, as well as lower earnings for exporting countries like Brazil & Australia.

Another point about low commodity prices - this is in spite of quantitative easing undertaken by multiple countries. Some of this money ought to have found its way into commodities resulting in buoyant prices. But this has not happened. This indicates that market perception of the outlook for the future is very, very pessimistic.

[duphash]

May be it's just USD is currently being pumped so that everything else goes down compared to USD ?
Can it be that IMF and the Fed decided to sell all of it's gold, silver and other reserves to pump USD and Dow ?

[TPTB_need_war]

May be it's just USD is currently being pumped so that everything else goes down compared to USD ?
Can it be that IMF and the Fed decided to sell all of it's gold, silver and other reserves to pump USD and Dow ?

If you had been reading Martin Armstrong's blog and my posts here, you'd have known for over 2 years that the dollar would becoming stronger because all the QE sent out into the world as carry trade of the ZIRP is going come rushing back to the USA (leaving the rest of the world in a short position in dollars bankrupting the emerging markets) as it will be safe haven as the rest of the world collapses. This would cause the USA to raise interest rates, thus compounding the problem for all nations except the USA. The target date was Oct 2015. Right on time...

[TPTB_need_war]

Last chance to sell gold, Euros, and BTC before the coming shake out to pauperize tinfoil hat investors.

[Amph]

maybe big investors are holding their money for now to decide the next move, some of them might consider crypto like bitcoin as a new big form of investment

if the price start to climb fast you know that this is the reason

May be it's just USD is currently being pumped so that everything else goes down compared to USD ?
Can it be that IMF and the Fed decided to sell all of it's gold, silver and other reserves to pump USD and Dow ?

usd isn't in better position, it's all the other fiat(well not all the other but some of the most important) that are garbabe now and losing value

[TPTB_need_war]

maybe big investors are holding their money for now to decide the next move, some of them might consider crypto like bitcoin as a new big form of investment

if the price start to climb fast you know that this is the reason

They will all chase the dollar moving higher while all the private assets are dumping, so they will short them. You forget that people can make money shorting as well as long.

Armstrong predicted this for October 2015, since decades ago.

[bitrider]

I read Armstrong every day for couple of years now (thanks to you TPTB . Question: does he expect the private assets to bottom by October, or will it take much longer before the flow flips and starts moving into gold, btc, etc? I know he sees flow continuing into $ and US for couple more years as safe haven.

[zenitzz]

I see the price of gold has started the way down will continue  down almost every day and if you have invest in gold Last chance to sell gold

[Amph]

maybe big investors are holding their money for now to decide the next move, some of them might consider crypto like bitcoin as a new big form of investment

if the price start to climb fast you know that this is the reason

They will all chase the dollar moving higher while all the private assets are dumping, so they will short them. You forget that people can make money shorting as well as long.

Armstrong predicted this for October 2015, since decades ago.

who is armstrong? i know that you can short while the price go up, to take advantage of small swing that may occur while we climb, but if the pump is strong enough and rise fast, it is better to hold an dsell at a certain target then risking to lose money via shorting

i prefer to short in a down trend

[Kakmakr]

When the going gets tough, people tend to run to gold as a safe haven. If this is true, why does the gold price go down? I have not heard of any new large deposits that have been found, so why would we see such a bad price for gold?
People are definitely not running towards Bitcoin, and the markets does not show any huge spikes in any of the other commodities, so something must be going on.

I think this is the beginning stages of a possible world recession. 

[spazzdla]

Not just yet, one last massive pump boys.

End of sep stock market goes boom.

[spazzdla]

May be it's just USD is currently being pumped so that everything else goes down compared to USD ?
Can it be that IMF and the Fed decided to sell all of it's gold, silver and other reserves to pump USD and Dow ?

If you had been reading Martin Armstrong's blog and my posts here, you'd have known for over 2 years that the dollar would becoming stronger because all the QE sent out into the world as carry trade of the ZIRP is going come rushing back to the USA (leaving the rest of the world in a short position in dollars bankrupting the emerging markets) as it will be safe haven as the rest of the world collapses. This would cause the USA to raise interest rates, thus compounding the problem for all nations except the USA. The target date was Oct 2015. Right on time...

It's pretty damn freaking how his Timelines work out.

[spazzdla]

When the going gets tough, people tend to run to gold as a safe haven. If this is true, why does the gold price go down? I have not heard of any new large deposits that have been found, so why would we see such a bad price for gold?
People are definitely not running towards Bitcoin, and the markets does not show any huge spikes in any of the other commodities, so something must be going on.

I think this is the beginning stages of a possible world recession. 

People will run to the US dollar.  It's accepted for goods all over.

[RustyNomad]

The writing has been on the wall for years already.

A market can be inflated, stimulated and or manipulated for a long period of time but it will always return to equilibrium meaning that it will eventually revert to the underlying fundamentals. These underlying fundamentals are hard to manipulate. Think of unemployment as an example, if a person is without a job he is without a job period. You can decide to no longer count him as unemployed (as it's being done currently) and that will make the figures look better but it has not changed the underlying fundamentals i.e. there is still a person without a job.

Over the past couple of years we have seen this 'recovery' but for most part it has been a paper recovery. The underlying fundamentals tell a completely different story and the markets are busy to revert back to those fundamentals i.e. reverting back to balance and I doubt whether any central bank will be able to stop this correction, not without bankrupting themselves and the country.

But then again, they are all so to say bankrupt already, if not in monetary terms then most definitely in moral terms.

Personally I think we are in for a hard time over the next decade. We will most probably see QE to the moon (good example - Europe - 'whatever it takes') as central banks try and rescue what cannot be rescued before the bottom eventually falls out.