[ETH] Ethereum Observation Thread

[rdnkjdi]

They sold ~ 60 million ether at the pre sale.

At ~$3 / ether as the current best guess (ethercoin price), that would be $180 mil market cap.

There is not going to be 60 million waiting to buy when they launch, and many many people will dump their coins when it does launch.

I'm sure the price will drop at launch, but for those that hang in there.. it could be the one that goes 1:1 with BTC. Or 1/3:1 as there are already 3 times more ether than the total BTC supply.

They are so different, that I don't see it as a threat to Bitcoin.

Vitalik wants to switch to POS, not POW, which is a good idea since POW is great for COINS, but POS is great for blockchains that provide a service.  (Once he's happy that POS can work)

MORE importantly.. It's going to be fresh / new / interesting to see just what this puppy can do (been a while since something NEW came along), and if anyone can actually understand it.. and how to use it..

Come on Ethereum devs..!  We beseech you.. don't disappoint us.. impress us.. inspire us.

..that's all that we ask of you. I know - it's a lot..

On pricing there is no way 180 million at $3 will be on the sell side either.  So it's tough to have any idea on how it will balance out

 I think there are many of us who are much more interested in supporting and being part of the of long term goals ... 100k tps, decentralized Uber etc than turning a quick buck over something that had a super high risk of dying during a 12 month maturation cycle.  

[jackfruit]

They sold ~ 60 million ether at the pre sale.

At ~$3 / ether as the current best guess (ethercoin price), that would be $180 mil market cap.

There is not going to be 180 million waiting to buy when they launch, and many many people will dump their coins when it does launch.

I'm sure the price will drop at launch, but for those that hang in there.. it could be the one that goes 1:1 with BTC. Or 1/3:1 as there are already 3 times more ether than the total BTC supply.

The price of ETC in no way reflects the price of ether. ETC is an altcoin with supply 1 million coins that has been pumped and will undoubtedly be dumped hard when ethereum launches. If you're expecting anything near $3 for your ether you will be sadly mistaken. In fact, I would not be surprised to see ether fall below crowdsale prices soon after launch.

In the years to come, if ethereum fulfills its lofty vision, maybe you'll see $3 per coin, but you won't see anything close to that on launch.

[monsanto]

Ethereum is open source right? So maybe a flood of Ether-alts (Ethershits?)... Etherdark... Etherlite.. bitEther..

Yeah - possible.  If the network effects choose a different coin the Eth team is ok with that.  They understood from the beginning & felt open source was still the only way to go.  IBM has already forked Ethereum - a few banks & warehouse type companies have also forked their own private chain for testing.  Counterparty forked and put Ethereum on the Blockchain.

I'm pretty sure the consensus will go with the original devs as long as they are producing code to make it more scalable, faster, more stable etc (but again - that's just all assumption on my part & I am biased.  Or maybe I've seen too many bitcoindark and lightcoincounterpartydarkcoindoge's to have much faith in copies.)

The more I think about it, the more I think this is what is going to happen. If Ethereum is at all successful from a price standpoint there will be Ethereum copies, and I think we will see them fairly quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if there are people working on some right now. Since it's a more complex system, maybe this will provide some barrier to typical clones. Once Ethereum is out in the wild though, and various unexpected behavior is seen, copies may be able to alter things that can't be changed in the original, in the same way bitcoin copies tried to improve on bitcoin. I doubt they will overtake Ethereum, unless some sort of serious flaw is discovered in the original, but they can probably steal away some marketshare. Also, Dapps developed for Ethereum could presumably run on a copied version.

[JMAHH]

Guys, if you're looking for an indication of what Ether is worth in the market, the highest bid at Gatecoin is currently 0.0076 BTC.

I'm not saying that means anything for the future.

https://gatecoin.com/marketDepth

[rdnkjdi]

Guys, if you're looking for an indication of what Ether is worth in the market, the highest bid at Gatecoin is currently 0.0076 BTC.

I'm not saying that means anything for the future.

https://gatecoin.com/marketDepth

It's irritating to me that I can't see the market without having a verified (passport pictures) account.  I'm more interested in how deep the order book is between the $1 & $2 mark than the top bid.

A better indicator than ethercoin ... still tough to know much till buyers and sellers start getting matched.

[arandy]

Made this screenshot yesterday

[rdnkjdi]

ah awesome thanks!

[IMZ]

IndiaMikeZulu in da house. Just readin' up here now.

Mark

[KennyTheMartian]

I would predict $1 - $2 range when they start selling, there is always the chance of the super inflated price at the start due to people not being able to get their Ethereum out yet. (Low supply)

[arandy]

[sofu]

I guess we will see a shakeout to 15cents or lower first. No moon without down 

[ApexEvo]

Will there be some normal exchange of ETH on launch? Normal means no need to send scans of my ID.
I heard rumors about polo, but is it confirmed?

[rdnkjdi]

Will there be some normal exchange of ETH on launch? Normal means no need to send scans of my ID.
I heard rumors about polo, but is it confirmed?

Yes - it's going to be "when ether unfreezes" in a few days per mod.

[newrad]

Will there be some normal exchange of ETH on launch? Normal means no need to send scans of my ID.
I heard rumors about polo, but is it confirmed?

The mod in the trollbox said pol will have it after "thawing faze".
Bittrex is confirmed to have it after launch as well as other.

[arandy]

but the big question is how to send Ether to another adres.
Not only is mining in windows impossible access to your ether is also impossible if your name is not Vitalik.

[hankman]

I don't know why you think IPO coins don't deserve severe criticism when they're just cash grabs that recreate the central banker experience we already have.

Why IPO should be banned from the forum:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=443196.0

ICOs are always SCAMS if they don't show 100% transparency of everything including funds.

Ethereum has 0% transparency -> Ethereum is a scam


It's that simple.






What I'm now looking for are Ethereum clones with:

- Mining pools at launch
- GPU miner for windows, linux and mac
- Fair launch
- 0% premined.
- no instamine
- good community

[monsanto]

What I'm now looking for are Ethereum clones with:

- Mining pools at launch
- GPU miner for windows, linux and mac
- Fair launch
- 0% premined.
- no instamine
- good community

I don't think it will be too long before the first Alt-Ethereum is launched. I will make a prediction that we see the first one 6 weeks from today, so September 13, 2015. 

[Alley]

Sounds like this project is already in its deaththrows.  Leaked Skype chat has dev saying they're hears away from finished but will run out of money in 7 months.

[Piston Honda]

this is gonna dump harder than a fat mexican man's dinner after cinqo-de-mayo!
LOL won't be hard to figure out.  then if you wanna risk buying, you catch it someplace in the dump...then prob have to wait awhile before seeing that "release price" again.

[PieceOfCake]

These forums are garbage on top of trash. If anyone is actually interested in Ethereum, check reddit or Ethereum's website/forums, the yahoo's in here are useless. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

It'll clear the thawing and be ready for trade within a few days, anytime now.