entering a new phase in mining : constrained capacity. This is good news.

[Littleshop]

It has happened.  We have had exponential growth in mining for sometime as the price of BTC has gone up.  As mining is profitable, people add more capacity.  But at the size the network is now, adding capacity is actually getting harder.  Good cheap 5970, 5870 and 5850 cards are nearly gone.  Yes, some of you folks are finding them but you can no longer go on newegg and buy 5 cards.  They are not there. 

This is not to say that difficulty will not rise, it will.  But it is really hard for it to double in one period now, EVEN IF PRICE DOUBLES.  I do not know how long this will last, maybe ATI will make more older 58XX chips or the price of the 6990 will drop and there will be a bigger supply.  These things are not happening as fast as the price of BTC is rising.

If you have rigs running, you are now in a sweet spot.

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[Atroxes]

Good thing I live in Scandinavia

Still plenty of somewhat low-cost 5850's and 5770's at stores.

Bought 3x 5770 and 1x 5850 without much trouble recently.

[innervisi0nn]

It has happened.  We have had exponential growth in mining for sometime as the price of BTC has gone up.  As mining is profitable, people add more capacity.  But at the size the network is now, adding capacity is actually getting harder.  Good cheap 5970, 5870 and 5850 cards are nearly gone.  Yes, some of you folks are finding them but you can no longer go on newegg and buy 5 cards.  They are not there. 

This is not to say that difficulty will not rise, it will.  But it is really hard for it to double in one period now, EVEN IF PRICE DOUBLES.  I do not know how long this will last, maybe ATI will make more older 58XX chips or the price of the 6990 will drop and there will be a bigger supply.  These things are not happening as fast as the price of BTC is rising.

If you have rigs running, you are now in a sweet spot.

There's going to be a dip once we hit the 500k difficulty level.
http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

Once the dip occurs, I assume BTC prices will drop, then go back up again hopefully to $11 $12.

BTC will become harder and harder to mine, but the cost of the BTC will continue to rise.


Now the only concern for folks like me, 1.2 ghash/s (I can still mine, but I have a better chance of earning more through pools) 2BTC a day @ current is about $20 x 30 days = $600 Mo. USD. Would you wait 20-30 days for 50 coins or $600 per month steady?

[Littleshop]

Good thing I live in Scandinavia

Still plenty of somewhat low-cost 5850's and 5770's at stores.

Bought 3x 5770 and 1x 5850 without much trouble recently.

I don't doubt cards are out there.  But they are getting harder and harder to get.  At first it was just newegg that was out.  Now, newegg, amazon, tiger and lower level places are running out of cards.  The remaining cards are higher priced and lower quantities available.  People have even resorted to going OUTSIDE and physically going to stores to get cards!  

[Atroxes]

People have even resorted to going OUTSIDE and physically going to stores to get cards!  
[/quote]

That's not even funny. You don't make jokes about being OUTSIDE.

Moderator?

[Jack of Diamonds]

Good thing I live in Scandinavia

Still plenty of somewhat low-cost 5850's and 5770's at stores.

Bought 3x 5770 and 1x 5850 without much trouble recently.

I don't doubt cards are out there.  But they are getting harder and harder to get.  At first it was just newegg that was out.  Now, newegg, amazon, tiger and lower level places are running out of cards.  The remaining cards are higher priced and lower quantities available.  People have even resorted to going OUTSIDE and physically going to stores to get cards!  

Used ones enter the market all the time as gaming folk want to upgrade to newer cards.
Many even have warranties. I have seen a used 5870 as low as $130.

[Genrobo]

ebay's still good dude
I saw a 5870 on there for like $150 the other day

[PcChip]

ebay's still good dude
I saw a 5870 on there for like $150 the other day

and you always will.

That's not his point.

The point the OP is making is that it's becoming harder to start up large mining operations

[Littleshop]

I looked for more cards today and found everything even higher and harder to get today.

6950 and 6970 are the main cards available now.