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Author Topic: Advice on buying a house (Netherlands, Amsterdam)  (Read 7790 times)
rebuilder
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July 11, 2015, 04:40:51 PM
 #121

What about demographics? If you're taking a loan to buy real estate, you have to take a long view on ROI. For example, where I live the population is aging - 20 years from now the baby boomers will have mostly passed away, and the younger generations are smaller. Roughly speaking, the actuarial tables show that  by then, there will be about 500,000 people aged 18 or more less than now - in a country of 5,5 million. And the baby boomers own real estate which will be coming to market when they no longer need a place to live. This doesn't account for immigration, to be fair.

How's the age structure in NL? Would a big city like Amsterdam continue to grow even if other areas did not?

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July 11, 2015, 04:56:34 PM
 #122

Real estate is on an all time low period. So it doesn't really matter where you put your money to. Since , Berlin is the new hotspot of investors ,go for it. Also you should compare the construction rates , and mobility from your property. Real estate will take up some time to grow , but gradually it will climb up. Amsterdam also has a few rules , which were liberalized recently.

I agree, I think real estate prices are low, probably cant go too much lower.  Also interest rates are at historic lows.  A house is a long term investment, for me it was a no brainer.  Good luck with your house hunt.

Thanks MF.

Amsterdam is one of the nicest cities I've been to, and would love to go back there, even to live for a year or two.

I'd do a quick financial scenario analysis between renting and buying and keep an eye on what's available for sale on the market.

I think I'm in a little bit of a middle class bubble here compared to the rest of the Netherlands, despite the crime being highest here compared to the rest of the country I haven't had much trouble, but I am lucky enough to live in the centre right now.

Is crime an issue there?  I was only there for a week a couple years back, but every interaction I had with anyone was pleasant.

So are you currently renting the place that you're in?

Another option would be to entertain the thought of buying a place with income producing potential.  I'm currently searching for this type of property in Toronto.

Crime isn't really an issue, no. Crime is highest in Amsterdam in all the netherlands. If you are wise you will not put yourself in harms way. Junkies and criminals are not a major worry, I do not go out late or wander the city in the early hours so I almost never encounter them. There are plenty of gross men out and about of all nationalities, which accost any women. It's pathetic behaviour and gives extremist feminists more ammunition, from the way I've seen some disgusting assholes act I almost don't blame them.



Amsterdam is really good because of an interesting city center, extensive cultural and culinary offerings, and the steady supply of work opportunities really makes it a very desirable and a very popular country to live in. And also regarding crime rate there, Amsterdam ranked fourth in a list of  highest per capita number of murders and other unnatural deaths Tongue
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July 11, 2015, 06:45:32 PM
 #123

The most expensive canal ring is Herengracht (pronounced Heragrach, if my dutch serves me). I linked a fun study earlier in the thread about the prices on there. If you want a look, check out www.funda.nl- it has an english option and see prices for yourself. You can find studios on the outer canal rings for as little as 120k eur- granted they will be rabbit hutches, but probably not a bad long term investment. I recently saw a 135k 20m square studio on the canal ring after Herengracht- extremely nice finish (wasn't even freehold, was on a municipal lease), went in less than a week. I actually live in a canal house (again I consider myself extremely lucky), it's pretty cool! Apart from the general noise at night it's a beautiful view when it's not raining- actually sometimes even when it is too Smiley

But yeah 2 million euros isn't even the lowest end of what large apartments in the more beautiful parts of the centre can cost. There are some truly incredible properties available. Another anecdote- a corner house on Herengracht facing the Amstel river was renovated, and all of the flats went in less than a week. Some property developers are making out like bandits right now.

In a few years everything in Europe will be dropping below at least 50% of its current price, including salaries.

Wait.

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July 11, 2015, 06:59:03 PM
 #124

Hope, so far you have come to an conclusion with more than hundreds of comments as suggestions and solutions for your Query regards to buying a house in Amsterdam. Wish you Good Luck in your purchase deal, stay sweet and happy at Home Smiley

The most expensive canal ring is Herengracht (pronounced Heragrach, if my dutch serves me). I linked a fun study earlier in the thread about the prices on there. If you want a look, check out www.funda.nl- it has an english option and see prices for yourself. You can find studios on the outer canal rings for as little as 120k eur- granted they will be rabbit hutches, but probably not a bad long term investment. I recently saw a 135k 20m square studio on the canal ring after Herengracht- extremely nice finish (wasn't even freehold, was on a municipal lease), went in less than a week. I actually live in a canal house (again I consider myself extremely lucky), it's pretty cool! Apart from the general noise at night it's a beautiful view when it's not raining- actually sometimes even when it is too Smiley

But yeah 2 million euros isn't even the lowest end of what large apartments in the more beautiful parts of the centre can cost. There are some truly incredible properties available. Another anecdote- a corner house on Herengracht facing the Amstel river was renovated, and all of the flats went in less than a week. Some property developers are making out like bandits right now.

In a few years everything in Europe will be dropping below at least 50% of its current price, including salaries.

Wait.

I'm as conflicted as ever. But I hope this thread can serve as a good reference for anyone else considering this.




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TPTB_need_war
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July 11, 2015, 08:59:33 PM
 #125

There is nothing to be conflicted about. Europe will collapse into the abyss over the next few years.

These guys will lose their shirts.

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July 12, 2015, 07:22:55 PM
 #126

There is nothing to be conflicted about. Europe will collapse into the abyss over the next few years.

These guys will lose their shirts.

Perhaps relevant TPTB? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/11734133/The-200-home-tower-block-that-sold-out-in-under-five-hours.html




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freeyourmind
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July 12, 2015, 08:37:20 PM
 #127

When did you come? The city has cleaned up considerably in the last 5 years. It is very easy to get lost in the centre if you are not familiar with it, the islands and canals all end up looking the same! I'm talking about being outside of the centre specifically, but even that is relatively safe when compared, for example with New York or London.

The most expensive canal ring is Herengracht (pronounced Heragrach, if my dutch serves me). I linked a fun study earlier in the thread about the prices on there. If you want a look, check out www.funda.nl- it has an english option and see prices for yourself. You can find studios on the outer canal rings for as little as 120k eur- granted they will be rabbit hutches, but probably not a bad long term investment. I recently saw a 135k 20m square studio on the canal ring after Herengracht- extremely nice finish (wasn't even freehold, was on a municipal lease), went in less than a week. I actually live in a canal house (again I consider myself extremely lucky), it's pretty cool! Apart from the general noise at night it's a beautiful view when it's not raining- actually sometimes even when it is too Smiley

But yeah 2 million euros isn't even the lowest end of what large apartments in the more beautiful parts of the centre can cost. There are some truly incredible properties available. Another anecdote- a corner house on Herengracht facing the Amstel river was renovated, and all of the flats went in less than a week. Some property developers are making out like bandits right now.

I was there in the spring of 2011, after visiting France, Spain and Portugal.  We stayed very close to Prinsengracht...spelling might be wrong, but you'll probably know what I'm talking about.  Yeah when I first got there, it was already dark and you're right in that many of the street corners looked very similar.  It was a very mind opening trip...and I look forward to another Eurotrip including Amsterdam again.

Thanks for the link...I checked out a few properties but will need to spend some more time on the site to see what is available at different price ranges, but the properties that I saw look nice for the price.

Glad to be of help, send me a message if you're ever in Amsterdam Smiley

Will do Smiley  I hope to go back sooner than later.

Regarding the comment about real estate and salaries in Europe taking a 50% cut over the next few years, each country and city will be affected differently.

USA and Canada usually has a very similar monetary policy (Canada follows the Fed) and when we had the financial crisis of 2008 and a housing collapse in the states, places like Toronto continued to appreciate because demand remained high.  Each city has something different to offer and are usually hit differently by a crisis.
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July 12, 2015, 10:18:34 PM
Last edit: July 12, 2015, 10:39:17 PM by TPTB_need_war
 #128

There is nothing to be conflicted about. Europe will collapse into the abyss over the next few years.

These guys will lose their shirts.

Perhaps relevant TPTB? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/11734133/The-200-home-tower-block-that-sold-out-in-under-five-hours.html

Exclusive zones can be compared to buying rare coins or art, in that the market is the wealthy who always have money or in this case are also fleeing economic distress and totalitarianism in other places. This appears to me to be more reflective of an excess in the supply of concentrated monetary wealth world-wide and insufficient productive investment opportunities. This is up held up by a $200+ trillion global debt and $quadrillion of global financial derivative leverage.

The recent proposal (or law?) to raise taxes on resident foreigners who try to pretend they are not residents by some loopholes does not affect apparently the buyers who purchased above, but it does apparently affect a large swath of the upper end of investment real estate in the UK and this will be reflected broadly but not in some acute rarities such as Towers in the prime districts.

The best advice I have is try to move before the SHTF to...

Without organized governance and society, who will keep the pumps working to prevent the Netherlands from being retaken by the ocean?

Don't say it is impossible. Chaos is non-linear.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2567384/Huge-pumps-Holland-brought-end-misery-flood-hit-Somerset-Levels.html


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July 12, 2015, 11:48:39 PM
Last edit: July 13, 2015, 12:03:56 AM by TPTB_need_war
 #129

Regarding the comment about real estate and salaries in Europe taking a 50% cut over the next few years, each country and city will be affected differently.

USA and Canada usually has a very similar monetary policy (Canada follows the Fed) and when we had the financial crisis of 2008 and a housing collapse in the states, places like Toronto continued to appreciate because demand remained high.  Each city has something different to offer and are usually hit differently by a crisis.

This is true, except two issues remain:

1. Humans are really bad at predicting how chaos unfolds, i.e. which areas and which timing.

2. You are referring to differently timed bubbles developing and peaking; whereas, we are facing a global contagion that will take down all the profligate western nations in a series of dominoes cascade beginning October 2015 and finally taking down the last nation standing (the USA) in late 2017. From 2018 forward we go over the cliff in the West, but Asia will be bottoming around 2020, while the West will continue down and down for the foreseeable decades. From 2033 forward, there will be a new world order, with the financial capital of the world shifted from the West to Asia. Apparently from 2030 forward, the world will also be hit with a Little Ice Age, which will exacerbate crisis.

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July 13, 2015, 12:13:38 AM
 #130

Regarding the comment about real estate and salaries in Europe taking a 50% cut over the next few years, each country and city will be affected differently.

USA and Canada usually has a very similar monetary policy (Canada follows the Fed) and when we had the financial crisis of 2008 and a housing collapse in the states, places like Toronto continued to appreciate because demand remained high.  Each city has something different to offer and are usually hit differently by a crisis.

This is true, except two issues remain:

1. Humans are really bad at predicting how chaos unfolds, i.e. which areas and which timing.

2. You are referring to differently timed bubbles developing and peaking; whereas, we are facing a global contagion that will take down all the profligate western nations in a series of dominoes cascade beginning October 2015 and finally taking down the last nation standing (the USA) in late 2017. From 2018 forward we go over the cliff in the West, but Asia will be bottoming around 2020, while the West will continue down and down for the foreseeable decades. From 2033 forward, there will be a new world order, with the financial capital of the world shifted from the West to Asia. Apparently from 2030 forward, the world will also be hit with a Little Ice Age, which will exacerbate crisis.

Right.  I was just giving an example of one of the bad predictions; not making a prediction myself.  Some cities turned into ghost towns and others continued unscathed during that time.  In Europe, every city will not be impacted similarly because they have different wealth/debt, jobs to offer, demand to live there, etc.

What are the catalysts for your collapse estimates?  Also, if the USA maintains global reserve currency status, and is able to print with no limits, while every country happily accepts USD (and the currency's strength is growing) then how will the collapse happen this time?  I think the US has terrible fundamentals, but as long as they can give freshly printed fiat to people and received a product, they're on a different playing field.
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July 13, 2015, 07:03:06 AM
Last edit: July 13, 2015, 07:15:28 AM by TPTB_need_war
 #131

The catalysts. Some years ago I independently happenstanced on (discovered) Martin Armstrong's 78.9 (79) year cycle of real estate (which I also correlated to technological unemployment cycles). So when I later discovered Armstrong's cycle models and that he had back tested them to the Athenian empire and before (even as far back as Mesopotamia), I'm keen to accept that such a cycle does exist. Armstrong is the largest hedge fund manager in history, formerly managing $3 trillion in Japanese sovereign funds before he got unintentionally entangled in the USA bankster's involved in the LTCM and Russian bonds scam via Republic bank which involved some of the funds he was managing. It is with this wealth that he compiled the massive $billion (in today's money) historical economics and natural phenomenon database that enable his supercomputer system to correlate and find these patterns and repeating cycles.

It is with this system that he has been accurately predicting everything since the 1980s without fail. In fact, I have predicted the past 4 major moves in the Bitcoin price employing his model, including my recent prediction in May that BTC would rise to $315 in June and July, then crash back down to below $150 for the Octoberish bottom.

So the model for what you are concerned with has to do with we are in a cycle of shifting from Public (i.e. sovereign and municipal bonds) to Private (e.g. gold, Bitcoin, and until 2017 USA assets including stocks) assets. There are numerous others cycles converging at this time which is what will make this coming contagion so horrific. These include the Cycle of War (both intra- and international), Pandemic Cycle, and even the Little Ice Age cycle of sunspot minimums.

What is happening now is the peripheral (to the global reserve) markets are nearing the Minsky moment dominoes collapse coming October. This is evident with rising bond spreads in Europe and the increasing volatility in for example China. And you find similar examples in Venezuela, Argentina, etc..

The distinction from 2008 will be that instead of the USA flooding the world with dollars via QE-to-the-moon (forcing China at al to flood Yuan, Euro, etc to keep US$ from becoming too strong and destroying their exports), this peripheral capital will be stampeding back into the USA as the last standing safe haven and the US Fed will be raising rates because it will see a bubble from its perspective despite the contraction in the rest of the globe's economies. The US$ will become too strong, because the peripheral economies are all effectively short the dollar (via massive loans denominated in US$ because ZIRP forced dollar investors to look abroad for yield which is what caused these bubbles abroad which are now collapsing) and will become even more so as their dollar reserves run back to the USA.

Thus going into 2017, the US$ will become so strong that it will choke off the USA economy (and also the stampede of capital into the USA will have peaked), the last economy still standing by that time. As the USA falls into the abyss in 2018, the entire world will descend into a horrific economic collapse.

The USA would try to print more QE after it heads down into the abyss in 2018, but this will be too late for the rest of the nations which will have already imploded and the USA's domestic politics are going more radicalized third party (especially after Clinton wins the 2016 POTUS election), thus this will prevent another massive TARP bailout for banks, so the banksters will instead in cahoots with the government go for bail-ins which will be massively deflationary.

This is it folks. Cash is king. Get out while you still can. This may be my last warning.

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July 13, 2015, 07:48:05 AM
 #132


I'm as conflicted as ever. But I hope this thread can serve as a good reference for anyone else considering this.

Just kind of interested in the purchase prices
If you bought the house in February versus July did the price change because of seasonal variances as it could save more money to buy the flat in the off season and then have a bit more of a buffer for cyclical periods.
(Well average price since most houses would not be on the market for that long)  
Renting the house as a property or put it on Airbnb as mentioned is good at generating income on the property the other factor would be determining the prime lending rate and then to try and enter when the interest seems low with a long lock in for amortization.
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July 13, 2015, 07:54:38 AM
 #133


I'm as conflicted as ever. But I hope this thread can serve as a good reference for anyone else considering this.

Just kind of interested in the purchase prices
If you bought the house in February versus July did the price change because of seasonal variances as it could save more money to buy the flat in the off season and then have a bit more of a buffer for cyclical periods.
(Well average price since most houses would not be on the market for that long)  
Renting the house as a property or put it on Airbnb as mentioned is good at generating income on the property the other factor would be determining the prime lending rate and then to try and enter when the interest seems low with a long lock in for amortization.

This was essentially my attitude to begin with- low interest rate locked with generally high private rents in Ams- you can lock rates for up to 30 years in Holland. Prices have raised slightly since I started looking- probably due to seasonal variance (more on the market) and investors sinking money into rental.




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July 14, 2015, 12:20:19 AM
 #134

This was essentially my attitude to begin with- low interest rate locked with generally high private rents in Ams- you can lock rates for up to 30 years in Holland.

And when prices fall (rents fall) and or property taxes increase (for the EU to handle all the member nation debts which must be consolidated else the EU breaks apart), then you are a debt slave for 30 years. Possibly even debtors prisons (which are coming back, mark my word).

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July 14, 2015, 02:02:27 AM
 #135

The catalysts. Some years ago I independently happenstanced on (discovered) Martin Armstrong's 78.9 (79) year cycle of real estate (which I also correlated to technological unemployment cycles). So when I later discovered Armstrong's cycle models and that he had back tested them to the Athenian empire and before (even as far back as Mesopotamia), I'm keen to accept that such a cycle does exist. Armstrong is the largest hedge fund manager in history, formerly managing $3 trillion in Japanese sovereign funds before he got unintentionally entangled in the USA bankster's involved in the LTCM and Russian bonds scam via Republic bank which involved some of the funds he was managing. It is with this wealth that he compiled the massive $billion (in today's money) historical economics and natural phenomenon database that enable his supercomputer system to correlate and find these patterns and repeating cycles.

It is with this system that he has been accurately predicting everything since the 1980s without fail. In fact, I have predicted the past 4 major moves in the Bitcoin price employing his model, including my recent prediction in May that BTC would rise to $315 in June and July, then crash back down to below $150 for the Octoberish bottom.

So the model for what you are concerned with has to do with we are in a cycle of shifting from Public (i.e. sovereign and municipal bonds) to Private (e.g. gold, Bitcoin, and until 2017 USA assets including stocks) assets. There are numerous others cycles converging at this time which is what will make this coming contagion so horrific. These include the Cycle of War (both intra- and international), Pandemic Cycle, and even the Little Ice Age cycle of sunspot minimums.

What is happening now is the peripheral (to the global reserve) markets are nearing the Minsky moment dominoes collapse coming October. This is evident with rising bond spreads in Europe and the increasing volatility in for example China. And you find similar examples in Venezuela, Argentina, etc..

The distinction from 2008 will be that instead of the USA flooding the world with dollars via QE-to-the-moon (forcing China at al to flood Yuan, Euro, etc to keep US$ from becoming too strong and destroying their exports), this peripheral capital will be stampeding back into the USA as the last standing safe haven and the US Fed will be raising rates because it will see a bubble from its perspective despite the contraction in the rest of the globe's economies. The US$ will become too strong, because the peripheral economies are all effectively short the dollar (via massive loans denominated in US$ because ZIRP forced dollar investors to look abroad for yield which is what caused these bubbles abroad which are now collapsing) and will become even more so as their dollar reserves run back to the USA.

Thus going into 2017, the US$ will become so strong that it will choke off the USA economy (and also the stampede of capital into the USA will have peaked), the last economy still standing by that time. As the USA falls into the abyss in 2018, the entire world will descend into a horrific economic collapse.

The USA would try to print more QE after it heads down into the abyss in 2018, but this will be too late for the rest of the nations which will have already imploded and the USA's domestic politics are going more radicalized third party (especially after Clinton wins the 2016 POTUS election), thus this will prevent another massive TARP bailout for banks, so the banksters will instead in cahoots with the government go for bail-ins which will be massively deflationary.

This is it folks. Cash is king. Get out while you still can. This may be my last warning.

I appreciate the in depth response.  So what I'm gathering is that there is a cyclical historical pattern that you have observed, and are predicting future movements based on the repeating pattern?

Do you think there is going to be an event or paradigm shift that is going to initiate the next cycle/pattern?  Or has an event already happened that you have flagged?
greBit
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July 14, 2015, 03:45:34 AM
 #136

This was essentially my attitude to begin with- low interest rate locked with generally high private rents in Ams- you can lock rates for up to 30 years in Holland.

And when prices fall (rents fall) and or property taxes increase (for the EU to handle all the member nation debts which must be consolidated else the EU breaks apart), then you are a debt slave for 30 years. Possibly even debtors prisons (which are coming back, mark my word).

The oil price is now going to collapse, and the obvious logical corollary of that is the dollar is going to go very high indeed. The oil price down 50%, the dollar up over 10%. The dollar going up 10% may not happen immediately, if you’re thinking in pounds and so on but it’s absolutely critical because you’ve got $6trn or $7trn of debt in the emerging economies all tied to the dollar. LOL, before 2009 I never had heard about the word 'trillion' Tongue
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July 14, 2015, 07:28:08 AM
 #137


before 2009, I never had heard about the word 'trillion' Tongue


In France and Italy, some scientists then began using billion to mean 10 square 9, trillion to mean 10 square 12, etc. This usage became more common with time, it was first used in 1600 bro. Before people used to refer it as millions million. History is crazy but a fun thing to study, the world needs to learn from its mistakes Smiley
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July 14, 2015, 01:05:34 PM
 #138


before 2009, I never had heard about the word 'trillion' Tongue


In France and Italy, some scientists then began using billion to mean 10 square 9, trillion to mean 10 square 12, etc. This usage became more common with time, it was first used in 1600 bro. Before people used to refer it as millions million. History is crazy but a fun thing to study, the world needs to learn from its mistakes Smiley

Unfortunately most people can't remember much other than the last snapchat they got...

Seriously I was sitting at a baseball game and there were a bunch of 20-somethings sitting in front of me.  The entire game they sat there texting, facebooking, snapchatting, etc.  THE WHOLE 9 innings!  Dont expect them to learn from history, let alone look up from their phones...
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August 03, 2015, 02:55:02 PM
 #139

Collapse of real estate ahead, and with it a collapse of savings and potentially into a mad max world:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35580

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