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Author Topic: Anybody know of a chart with Gox influence removed?  (Read 1438 times)
RyNinDaCleM
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August 04, 2015, 10:51:25 PM
 #21

We would be below $100, imho. No troll, but without Gox' alleged relentless pushing through both 2013 rally's, there wouldn't have been $1000, and after this bear market, even with the China power, I think we would be back below $100 assuming we even broke 100 in the first place. But without the early 2013 rise, who knows if China would have even had the interest for the late 2013 rise?

Then why has the price not corrected back below $100?  It has had 18 months to do so.  Also, according to the wizsec report, the bot(s) reversed course and started continuously selling on January 28th and into the month of February, possibly accelerating the decline that month.  By your logic, the price may now be artificially low.  Perhaps it should have stayed closer to the all time high.  

Since the bots started selling, this indicates to me that they may not have been bitcoin moon bots but bots programmed to trade on technical conditions, and when momentum indicators started turning south in late January 2014, they started selling.  For this reason, it could have been legit money from someone oblivious to the financial problems at gox, vs a hacker whose only goal was to accumulate and withdraw as much bitcoin as possible.  

Either way, the only thing we know for solid fact is how many coins are in circulation at any given point in time.  Even today, there is a possibility that some of the exchanges are playing with fake fiat and/or fake bitcoin.

I concur that the only fact we know is how many coins there are in circulation at any given point. We are all speculating here and since a chart without Gox influence does not exist, we will never know just what such a chart looks like. Even the report can't 100% confirm what was really going on. Only that a shitton of coins were bought throughout 2013. Some speculations say this was in an effort to reimburse stolen coins to Gox users and as the rally got heading full steam, panic set in on those at Gox trying to acquire coins as the price was running away. I don't know what was really going on, so I simply stated my opinion and even used "alleged" since we don't know if Willy and Marcus were even operated by Gox. As far as the bots selling, I wasn't aware that they were. I don't know if I missed that part or if it wasn't in the report I read at all.

Why the price hasn't gone below $100 yet is easy... Think of it like muscle memory. Market participants get conditioned over time to believing in something by mere habit. Whales pushing the market around to skim profits makes for a slow descent, especially when they know that not driving it straight into the ground is more beneficial for the longer term. The longer this goes on, the more conditioned everyone gets and the slower the progress becomes.

I can say that without the April 2013 rise like it was, China may not have had enough interest to get involved like they did in November. And that is enough for me to believe that $1000 would not have happened if it weren't for those bots' relentless buying.

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August 05, 2015, 11:45:02 PM
 #22

It's impossible to know what % of money was due MtGox'ing bot and whatnot and what % was legit bull pressure. In any case the big pump helped putting Bitcoin on the map and on mainstream news, thanks to it im here now and learned enough about BTC to be here for the very long term.

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