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Author Topic: Anybody know of a chart with Gox influence removed?  (Read 1391 times)
Shiver
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August 02, 2015, 01:56:34 PM
 #1

I'm wondering if anyone has looked at removing the influence of the MTGOX Willy bot in a chart (which from what I've read appears to be at times between 25-90% of the bubble that created the ATH.

It would be interesting to see what it might have looked like without that influence, although we'll never accurately know.

It's a little beyond my current skill set, but I'm very curious.  I believe it was "WizSec" that did a lot of work on this.

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August 02, 2015, 01:58:40 PM
 #2

I think we'll have to wait for more facts before something cogent can be put together. Even then everything is far too interconnected to be able to separate Gox. It might have been driving price elsewhere sometimes and vice versa on other occasions.

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August 02, 2015, 02:22:29 PM
 #3

Yeah, understand and agree.  It's just that everytime I look at the chart and people talking about how much value it's lost on a time frame that suits their statistics (as opposed to the huge amount it has gained on a longer time frame), I want to remove that large climb and get a feel for what may have been a possible less exuberant alternative, even if the +/- error is still pretty large.

We can draw lines on the charts all day long, but just a little more data might show a very different story perhaps(?).
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August 02, 2015, 02:25:32 PM
 #4

We would be below $100, imho. No troll, but without Gox' alleged relentless pushing through both 2013 rally's, there wouldn't have been $1000, and after this bear market, even with the China power, I think we would be back below $100 assuming we even broke 100 in the first place. But without the early 2013 rise, who knows if China would have even had the interest for the late 2013 rise?

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August 02, 2015, 02:28:44 PM
 #5

Yeah, understand and agree.  It's just that everytime I look at the chart and people talking about how much value it's lost on a time frame that suits their statistics (as opposed to the huge amount it has gained on a longer time frame), I want to remove that large climb and get a feel for what may have been a possible less exuberant alternative, even if the +/- error is still pretty large.

We can draw lines on the charts all day long, but just a little more data might show a very different story perhaps(?).

The doomsters who claim total Gox rigging conveniently choose to forget the China thing. That eventually dwarfed Gox in November 2013.

As for April 2013, that can be thought of as a pure Gox happening which might've set it up for November. We'll never be totally sure.

I guess May 2014 when it hit $680 or so can be considered the first Gox free bull run but that could still be a spiritual hangover from the previous year. Onwards and upwards regardless. 

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August 02, 2015, 03:34:27 PM
 #6

We would be below $100, imho. No troll, but without Gox' alleged relentless pushing through both 2013 rally's, there wouldn't have been $1000, and after this bear market, even with the China power, I think we would be back below $100 assuming we even broke 100 in the first place. But without the early 2013 rise, who knows if China would have even had the interest for the late 2013 rise?

While not that bearish, I agree with the analysis. IMHO (because it's pure guesswork) we would have reached some 300$ - 400$ instead and, most importantly,
we would have already left the bear market and entered a slow bull market. Since the largest wave of speculator fiat comes after the previous ATH gets broken,
because it kind of guarantees a 4x win, it would have been much easier to get that new wave of fiat (after breaking 400$ instead of 1200$).

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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August 02, 2015, 06:12:21 PM
 #7

Without gox I think the current price would be around 20-40 usd. With a past ATH around 70 usd.

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August 02, 2015, 06:20:32 PM
 #8

Without gox I think the current price would be around 20-40 usd. With a past ATH around 70 usd.

Hey didn't you sell your coins for $10?
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August 02, 2015, 07:30:33 PM
 #9

Without gox I think the current price would be around 20-40 usd. With a past ATH around 70 usd.

Hey didn't you sell your coins for $10?
Crickets.. Clearly, he's formed a pact w/ trollypop to keep spreading lulz about the bitcoin price as we keep the ship sailing forward and upward. It's gonna be a very tough time going forward for the likes of these two.
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August 02, 2015, 07:40:51 PM
 #10

I'm wondering if anyone has looked at removing the influence of the MTGOX Willy bot in a chart (which from what I've read appears to be at times between 25-90% of the bubble that created the ATH.

It would be interesting to see what it might have looked like without that influence, although we'll never accurately know.

It's a little beyond my current skill set, but I'm very curious.  I believe it was "WizSec" that did a lot of work on this.



Not possible because of arbitrage...

                                 
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Shiver
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August 03, 2015, 12:30:19 AM
 #11

My guess, bearing in mind that opinions are like a-holes (in that everyone has one) is somewhere in the price range of what Tzupy is saying - maybe $300-400.  Of course we can never know really, but I think that would be a decent target for end of year, as I think the bulls have been calibrated to expect moon now, when reality actually bites hard and brings us down to earth to some degree.  I mean 100%+ gain in a couple of years isn't that bad compared to buying gov't T-Bonds and 'espoused' inflation rather than 'actual' inflation.

I'm just finding myself impatient (as I guess a lot of us may be) waiting a few years to find out if that's reasonable or not, or whether the world is going to implode on itself, beforehand.

A 'slow bull market' is probably what's best for bitcoin, even if it doesn't fit the wet dream instant gratification idea.
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August 03, 2015, 03:15:37 AM
 #12

Here is the most logical explanation that no one seems to want to post:



No conspiracy theories here.  This is just a chart of actual price action on an exchange using (presumably) real money.  Perhaps the psychological influence of rising prices on gox could have caused people to transfer money to other exchanges and buy when they otherwise would not have or perhaps caused sellers to not sell when they otherwise would have, but that is just pure speculation.  The best thing to do is look at actual price data on an exchange that we are fairly sure was using real money.  There was no arbitrage at the time.  Mt gox was an island unto itself and many people were suspicious even then when gox was trading consistently at a 15 to 20% premium to other markets for months.  We may never know what really happened at gox, but the all time high was 1163 on bitstamp and 1095 on btce.

Besides, even if rising prices on gox influenced real money on other exchanges, it has been a year and a half so I would say prices have settled at their natural level by now, assuming there in no fake bitcoin being sold, in which case the price may be abnormally low.  

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August 03, 2015, 06:04:56 AM
 #13

Here is the most logical explanation that no one seems to want to post:



No conspiracy theories here.  This is just a chart of actual price action on an exchange using (presumably) real money.  Perhaps the psychological influence of rising prices on gox could have caused people to transfer money to other exchanges and buy when they otherwise would not have or perhaps caused sellers to not sell when they otherwise would have, but that is just pure speculation.  The best thing to do is look at actual price data on an exchange that we are fairly sure was using real money.  There was no arbitrage at the time.  Mt gox was an island unto itself and many people were suspicious even then when gox was trading consistently at a 15 to 20% premium to other markets for months.  We may never know what really happened at gox, but the all time high was 1163 on bitstamp and 1095 on btce.

Besides, even if rising prices on gox influenced real money on other exchanges, it has been a year and a half so I would say prices have settled at their natural level by now, assuming there in no fake bitcoin being sold, in which case the price may be abnormally low.  

I think that some exchangers are operating on fractional reserve, and this could be the case. Bitstamp always refused to post a proof of solvency, even after the hack...

                                 
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August 03, 2015, 08:22:04 AM
 #14

Without gox I think the current price would be around 20-40 usd. With a past ATH around 70 usd.

Well, that's the point. God blame gox
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August 03, 2015, 12:30:55 PM
 #15

the price was around 60-90 before the bubble started so if you removed that we have x3-x5 increase, a natural x3 increase in less than two years which isn't that bad
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August 03, 2015, 12:37:40 PM
 #16

Willybot is next to irrelevant, as far as I'm concerned. Last ATH was China driven and almost no one in China was buying on MtGox. People still decided to part with fiat for bitcoins at that price, so that was the price. In fact, humans bought bitcoins off me at that price, so how is this anything to do with a bot?

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August 03, 2015, 01:01:49 PM
 #17

Willybot is next to irrelevant, as far as I'm concerned. Last ATH was China driven and almost no one in China was buying on MtGox. People still decided to part with fiat for bitcoins at that price, so that was the price. In fact, humans bought bitcoins off me at that price, so how is this anything to do with a bot?

Exactly, as they say, there is no bad publicity, only publicity. Willy has done his share of business for Bitcoin, just as a Silk Road did and Andreas Antonopoulos did etc.. You do get what I am trying to say.
Willy got us to the spotlight, where Bitcoin technology is allowed to shine and show wht it can do.

I am not worried about the Bitcoin future without another Willy bot. We will be just fine, technical advancement and superior technology will take over from here!
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August 03, 2015, 01:35:01 PM
 #18

Willybot is next to irrelevant, as far as I'm concerned. Last ATH was China driven and almost no one in China was buying on MtGox. People still decided to part with fiat for bitcoins at that price, so that was the price. In fact, humans bought bitcoins off me at that price, so how is this anything to do with a bot?

yes as you say people really did pay real fiat to get hold of bitcoin at $1000 a time prices. so its "real'. but the bot took it up on gox and the other markets followed. surely you do not believe the chinese exchanges went up for other reasons?
also besides the willy bot we have had in % terms even bigger drops afterwards eg $31 to $2

the key issue is when do we consider we are out of the crash that happened afterwards ie is $177 the price it would have got to without the willy bot spike or have the current manipulators stalled the drop at $177 from going much lower.
No one wants to wake one morning and see it at $60 (which is where I think its low might be).

But bitcoin is growing fast enough that even buying at current prices eg $270 (even if it goes to $60) in a year or two it will seen as a 'good sensible buy'

rule #1 buy and hold
rule #2 see rule #1
 
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August 03, 2015, 02:06:23 PM
 #19

People bought at $1000 "with real fiat money" because get rich quick emotion and FOMO. No other reason. They thought it would go to $10,000 next. That is all.

... But without the early 2013 rise, who knows if China would have even had the interest for the late 2013 rise?

New ATH's would have happened, sure, but not $1000 without the lead exchange going there first.

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August 03, 2015, 06:11:51 PM
 #20

We would be below $100, imho. No troll, but without Gox' alleged relentless pushing through both 2013 rally's, there wouldn't have been $1000, and after this bear market, even with the China power, I think we would be back below $100 assuming we even broke 100 in the first place. But without the early 2013 rise, who knows if China would have even had the interest for the late 2013 rise?

Then why has the price not corrected back below $100?  It has had 18 months to do so.  Also, according to the wizsec report, the bot(s) reversed course and started continuously selling on January 28th and into the month of February, possibly accelerating the decline that month.  By your logic, the price may now be artificially low.  Perhaps it should have stayed closer to the all time high. 

Since the bots started selling, this indicates to me that they may not have been bitcoin moon bots but bots programmed to trade on technical conditions, and when momentum indicators started turning south in late January 2014, they started selling.  For this reason, it could have been legit money from someone oblivious to the financial problems at gox, vs a hacker whose only goal was to accumulate and withdraw as much bitcoin as possible. 

Either way, the only thing we know for solid fact is how many coins are in circulation at any given point in time.  Even today, there is a possibility that some of the exchanges are playing with fake fiat and/or fake bitcoin.

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
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