Finally, a blog that is not just trying to make a media flaming flood! (I hope this wasn't posted already.)
http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adoption-and-price-appreciation-of-bitcoin-in-the-long-run/Posts like this need more attention. Unlike most bloggers, this guy is actually trying to make reasonable models and think about how the world might react to Bitcoin.
I really like the estimates on comparable types of money, though I think we can't use the numbers as they are without some major corrections, which unfortunately can't be calculated as easily. The entire behavior and value of USD is dominated by book money right now, as hardly any big purchases are made in cash. This does not compare to a Bitcoin situation well. Especially since we have no clue how big the role of banking will be in Bitcoin.
One more thing to complain: some estimates do strange things, such as using the average amount of
cash on a person times some developed country factor to estimate the amount they invested into Bitcoin. While the resulting number seems reasonable, this method of getting there isn't.
Still, I recommend the article. It's a nice read and takes parts of the world into account some people tend to forget about. Most of the news and blogs right now are just babbling or hyping, so this tone is refreshing to me.
