I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013

[ercolinux]

I think 30M will be reached in 8-9 months (unless more delay in ASIC production)

Well how about that..we're on the same page.

 

But Avalon has a preorder of 300 60GHash rigs alone for feb.2013 (18GHash) and say that another similar (or even bigger) batch will be ready after that date in few months, 62Thash will be from BFL and we are at 100THash by Apr-may. There are at least other 2 or 3 ASIC announced, if they will sell 60-80Thash in 6 months we are at 160-180GHash.

Link to this?
And yes that seems about right. My actual prediction starts at 150TH/s and goes up to 250TH/s within a 12 month timeframe.
[/quote]

I'd received a mail from Yifu Gou (the boss of Avalon) in which he say that the 300 units on preorder gone sold in 1 day and will be shipped before end feb.2013. Here there is the mail https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110090.420. Is not clearly stated that they will be ready with another batch but they continue to develop the ASIC, so is quite sure that there will be another batch in few months.

[robocoin]

Imagine I will mine 0.5BTC/day in Q1 2013 , when using a bASIC @58GHs. BTC/USD must be stable arround 25$ or I am not going to buy any mining hardware.

[Korbman]

I'd received a mail from Yifu Gou (the boss of Avalon) in which he say that the 300 units on preorder gone sold in 1 day and will be shipped before end feb.2013. Here there is the mail https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110090.420. Is not clearly stated that they will be ready with another batch but they continue to develop the ASIC, so is quite sure that there will be another batch in few months.

Ah, cool beans dude, thanks for posting that. I believed your statement before, but I like to have a reference in case they update it with new data

[DoomDumas]

This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives 

I agree...  Let's bet on it @ betsofbitco.in

[DoomDumas]

1) ASIC devices not only meet their predicted specs, but some exceed them
2) ASIC devices become extremely cheap
3) USD/BTC values skyrocket to new highs and stabilize up there

IMHO : ASIC already seems to be exceeding spec.. and are cheap, maybe become extremely cheap this winter..

I've bet on a 100 U$ / BTC before 2014 ! 

[Korbman]

1) ASIC devices not only meet their predicted specs, but some exceed them
2) ASIC devices become extremely cheap
3) USD/BTC values skyrocket to new highs and stabilize up there

IMHO : ASIC already seems to be exceeding spec.. and are cheap, maybe become extremely cheap this winter..

Haha I know, right. The day I posted that was the day BFL had me cross off #1 on that list with their updated specs 

[jjiimm_64]

In the next six months difficulty will gradually increase to 34x. After that the 2nd generation of ASICs will arrive and nobody knows how they gonna perform.

Wrong. In the next six months the difficulty will increase 475x.

Oh I'm sorry, I thought we were pulling random numbers out of our asses.

Then lets do the 4x max per difficulty cycle and assume that there will be 3 difficulty cyles within two 4 weeks from shipping.

If 30 of the estimated 46.3 TH/s from BFL source go live, that puts the  Network total to 53.144 Thash/s

At 23.2Thash/s the Estimated    difficulty will be 3,060,648 in 279 blks

Add 43.6% to the Estimated Difficulty.

At 53.2Thash/s the Estimated difficulty will be 4,395,090 add 6.5% for every 2 weeks that those 30Thash/s are not added to the network.

So if those 30Thash/s hit the network lets say November 7th 2012. We will see a new Estimated Difficulty the following week November 14th. Assuming the network speed at that time being 53.2Thash/s the difficulty would be 5,309,047.00

I expect that there will be another 30Thash/s getting onto the network during difficulty cycle that started November 14th.

By November 24th expect to see an Estimated difficulty increase between 8,302,870 and 8,703,651.

The max potential increase in dificulty cycle and assume that there will be 3 difficulty cyles within two 4 weeks from shipping would be 4x of the previous deficulty.

If we got a difficulty change in 5 days then 14 days the difficulty would be at a wapping 12,242,592 for the first difficulty increase (5-7 Days).
Followed by the next estimated difficulty 4x 12242592 = 48,970,368.


My personal numbers are calculated at the difficulty being as follows.

November 7-14th 2012 @ 5,309,047
November 18th - 24th 2012 @ 8,703,651

My personal maximum estimate because of other factors such as more ASIC's being added to the network then estimated.

November 7-14th 2012 @ 12,242,592
November 18th-24th 2012 @ 48,970,368

Note: This is my personal augmented reality perspective on the situation.

as much as i hate to say it..  this conjecture seams the best so far!

[YokoToriyama]

thats a scary number 100 Million LOL ... i doubt it
depending on how many people order mini rig's and such
and also if new hardware comings out again but still
look for longs its taking for stuff to come out now...

[Korbman]

Then lets do the 4x max per difficulty cycle and assume that there will be 3 difficulty cyles within two 4 weeks from shipping.

If 30 of the estimated 46.3 TH/s from BFL source go live, that puts the  Network total to 53.144 Thash/s

At 23.2Thash/s the Estimated    difficulty will be 3,060,648 in 279 blks

Add 43.6% to the Estimated Difficulty.

At 53.2Thash/s the Estimated difficulty will be 4,395,090 add 6.5% for every 2 weeks that those 30Thash/s are not added to the network.

So if those 30Thash/s hit the network lets say November 7th 2012. We will see a new Estimated Difficulty the following week November 14th. Assuming the network speed at that time being 53.2Thash/s the difficulty would be 5,309,047.00

I expect that there will be another 30Thash/s getting onto the network during difficulty cycle that started November 14th.

By November 24th expect to see an Estimated difficulty increase between 8,302,870 and 8,703,651.

The max potential increase in dificulty cycle and assume that there will be 3 difficulty cyles within two 4 weeks from shipping would be 4x of the previous deficulty.

If we got a difficulty change in 5 days then 14 days the difficulty would be at a wapping 12,242,592 for the first difficulty increase (5-7 Days).
Followed by the next estimated difficulty 4x 12242592 = 48,970,368.


My personal numbers are calculated at the difficulty being as follows.

November 7-14th 2012 @ 5,309,047
November 18th - 24th 2012 @ 8,703,651

My personal maximum estimate because of other factors such as more ASIC's being added to the network then estimated.

November 7-14th 2012 @ 12,242,592
November 18th-24th 2012 @ 48,970,368

Note: This is my personal augmented reality perspective on the situation.

Now THAT'S how you argue a point...by throwing down some arithmetic and reasoning to show how you got to your estimates

Though I'm not sure I can picture reaching your "end of November" max numbers, I'm 100% with you on the minimums.

[Sitarow]

Though I'm not sure I can picture reaching your "end of November" max numbers, I'm 100% with you on the minimums.

A single re-target never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.

The question now is how many days it will take before the next difficulty change.

The code that enforces this is located here.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/d62a1947be5350ed60066ccacc7aba43bbdf48fb/src/main.cpp#L857

[jjiimm_64]

Though I'm not sure I can picture reaching your "end of November" max numbers, I'm 100% with you on the minimums.

A single re-target never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.

The question now is how many days it will take before the next difficulty change.

The code that enforces this is located here.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/d62a1947be5350ed60066ccacc7aba43bbdf48fb/src/main.cpp#L857

good call:

    if (nActualTimespan < nTargetTimespan/4)
        nActualTimespan = nTargetTimespan/4;
    if (nActualTimespan > nTargetTimespan*4)
        nActualTimespan = nTargetTimespan*4;

[Desolator]

my extremely elaborate estimate puts it at 20.344x and it was quite conservative so your 33x is probably about right.

[hahahafr]

my extremely elaborate estimate puts it at 20.344x and it was quite conservative so your 33x is probably about right.

Yes, somewhere between 20x and 33x is the real value.

[420]

where's the official bet?

[YipYip]

where's the official bet?

I am Australian so will bet on anything

Give me an exact date and I will put 5 BTC that says No to 100 million

[crazyates]

I am Australian so will bet on anything

I don't really see the connection?

[YipYip]

Australian culture will have an Asustralian bet on a fly walking or flying up a wall

So ..instead of blah blah blah this that woulda coulda shoulda

Lets put money on it ..

[nibor]

This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives 

I agree based on BFL saying that their 1st batch of asics is 100k chips:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=128414.0

[Desolator]

I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products?  I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons.  I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.

[420]

I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products?  I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons.  I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.

exactly 4-6 weeks

[/troll]