Does anyone else smell BS??

[Clearfly]

A little over a week ago ngzhang anounced his proposed production of the 'Avalon' ASIC with >= 60Ghs for about $1299 (about double the hashrate of BFL's Single 'SC', and Cablepair's bASIC)

Since then:
BFL have announced their Single 'SC' will now hash at 60Ghs (from 40Ghs) @ $1299
Cablepair has announced their bASIC will now hash at 54Ghs (from 27Ghs) @ $1069 (now selling 27Ghs version @ $599)

Were both BFL and Cablepair originally pricing their units at more than 100%+ markup of the cost of production and development?
Because as i see it they cannot afford to produce these now and make any profit.

Also how have they done it?
1) Are they just doubling the number of boards in each unit? (Only viable option if they have already started PCB production)
Or
2) Have they doubled the number of chips on each board? (Only viable if they haven't started production yet)

In either case i can not see any of these ever hitting the market before Christmas. My money is going firmly back in my wallet until some real devices hit the real world, because all i see at the moment is BS.

[kjlimo]

A little over a week ago ngzhang anounced his proposed production of the 'Avalon' ASIC with >= 60Ghs for about $1299 (about double the hashrate of BFL's Single 'SC', and Cablepair's bASIC)

Since then:
BFL have announced their Single 'SC' will now hash at 60Ghs (from 30Ghs) @ $1299
Cablepair has announced their bASIC will now hash at 54Ghs (from 27Ghs) @ $1069 (now selling 27Ghs version @ $599)

Were both BFL and Cablepair originally pricing their units at more than 100%+ markup of the cost of production and development?
Because as i see it they cannot afford to produce these now and make any profit.

Also how have they done it?
1) Are they just doubling the number of boards in each unit? (Only viable option if they have already started PCB production)
Or
2) Have they doubled the number of chips on each board? (Only viable if they haven't started production yet)

In either case i can not see any of these ever hitting the market before Christmas. My money is going firmly back in my wallet until some real devices hit the real world, because all i see at the moment is BS.

Welcome to bitcointalk!  Do you mind posting some links to all of these statements?  I haven't been able to keep up with all of the news lately.

Keep in mind all of the specs that were released were very preliminary.  However, I do hope you keep your money in your wallet b/c that will increase my profits over the next few months.

Adding chips would not increase the cost of each unit all that much, so that's an easy way to stay competitive.  However, I don't think anyone has released how they will accomplish this, b/c they haven't really released how they would accomplish the previous benchmarks either.

Getting excited for ASIC!

EDIT: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showthread.php/16-Announcement-BFL-ASIC-Release-specifications

[DobZombie]

A little over a week ago ngzhang anounced his proposed production of the 'Avalon' ASIC with >= 60Ghs for about $1299 (about double the hashrate of BFL's Single 'SC', and Cablepair's bASIC)

Not quite double, closer to 50% I think.

o.0

[server]

Strange... BF's mini rig SC is also up 50% 1000 -> 1500GH/s

http://www.butterflylabs.com/products/

[AndrewBUD]

They need more money... Something is not going to plan and more funds are required.

[Clearfly]

A little over a week ago ngzhang anounced his proposed production of the 'Avalon' ASIC with >= 60Ghs for about $1299 (about double the hashrate of BFL's Single 'SC', and Cablepair's bASIC)

Since then:
BFL have announced their Single 'SC' will now hash at 60Ghs (from 30Ghs) @ $1299
Cablepair has announced their bASIC will now hash at 54Ghs (from 27Ghs) @ $1069 (now selling 27Ghs version @ $599)

Were both BFL and Cablepair originally pricing their units at more than 100%+ markup of the cost of production and development?
Because as i see it they cannot afford to produce these now and make any profit.

Also how have they done it?
1) Are they just doubling the number of boards in each unit? (Only viable option if they have already started PCB production)
Or
2) Have they doubled the number of chips on each board? (Only viable if they haven't started production yet)

In either case i can not see any of these ever hitting the market before Christmas. My money is going firmly back in my wallet until some real devices hit the real world, because all i see at the moment is BS.

Welcome to bitcointalk!  Do you mind posting some links to all of these statements?  I haven't been able to keep up with all of the news lately.

Keep in mind all of the specs that were released were very preliminary.  However, I do hope you keep your money in your wallet b/c that will increase my profits over the next few months.

Adding chips would not increase the cost of each unit all that much, so that's an easy way to stay competitive.  However, I don't think anyone has released how they will accomplish this, b/c they haven't really released how they would accomplish the previous benchmarks either.

Getting excited for ASIC!

EDIT: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showthread.php/16-Announcement-BFL-ASIC-Release-specifications

You can check their relevant posts here in Custom Hardware, and their respective websites.

Sure you can add more chips to the board, but that requires a complete redesign of the PCB. So no one is even at that stage of production yet (or they've lost a ton of money in R&D).

Granted their specs were 'preliminary', but that was months ago.
I can't see how any production can possibly have happend in the past months, therefore it seems unlikely any of them will hit their proposed October/December delivery dates if they are still 'Talking' and changing proposed specs.

[jayeeyee]

And now we bare witness to the GH/s war. 

At this point, I don't care who says or promises what anymore.  As the OP puts it, I'm not giving anyone any of my money until the product exist in the real world.  Even if I will be paying the full price, I'm alright with that.

[BitcoinINV]

I think they are over blowing the spec's, to make a asic just takes money. To have someone make a PCB board to hold a FPGA is only 100 dollars. Send the fpga configuration to a ASIC maker and they will produce your chips. BFL was using a EP3SL150 which has 142,000 LE's you find a chip with more LE's you got a faster machine A AMD Radeon HD 6990 3072 ALUs just to put that in perspective. Now a EP4SE820 has about 813,000 LE's which is WAY WAY faster then the EP3sl150. After they have it configured to they send it to be made into Asics here is a preview of Altera's hard copy of the IV, Density 2.8M to 15M usable ASIC gates (not including transceiver hard IP, I/Os, PLLs, and built-in test logic)  15M imagine how fast a of a miner that would be lol. Now these chips are crazy expenisve, the IV sales for 11k through altera I Have not got any qoutes on this chip from china yet. The ep3sl150 is about 150 dollars a piece if you order 25+ from china.

[Sitarow]

A little over a week ago ngzhang anounced his proposed production of the 'Avalon' ASIC with >= 60Ghs for about $1299 (about double the hashrate of BFL's Single 'SC', and Cablepair's bASIC)

Since then:
BFL have announced their Single 'SC' will now hash at 60Ghs (from 40Ghs) @ $1299
Cablepair has announced their bASIC will now hash at 54Ghs (from 27Ghs) @ $1069 (now selling 27Ghs version @ $599)

Were both BFL and Cablepair originally pricing their units at more than 100%+ markup of the cost of production and development?
Because as i see it they cannot afford to produce these now and make any profit.

Also how have they done it?
1) Are they just doubling the number of boards in each unit? (Only viable option if they have already started PCB production)
Or
2) Have they doubled the number of chips on each board? (Only viable if they haven't started production yet)

In either case i can not see any of these ever hitting the market before Christmas. My money is going firmly back in my wallet until some real devices hit the real world, because all i see at the moment is BS.

Competition is the key and making a successful product for profit is the motivation.

Have to keep you clients happy. Common  business practice for successful product's.

[Clearfly]

Competition is great, i just have an issue with specs changing so near to their supposed delivery dates. Which makes me question how far along with development they really are.
When you've gone so far down a development path it becomes expensive to start changing things at such a late stage. Profits dwindle and companies go bust.

All we've seen so far from anyone is mockups, which makes me think that production and therefore delivery is still a very long way off.

[Sitarow]

Competition is great, i just have an issue with specs changing so near to their supposed delivery dates. Which makes me question how far along with development they really are.
When you've gone so far down a development path it becomes expensive to start changing things at such a late stage. Profits dwindle and companies go bust.

All we've seen so far from anyone is mockups, which makes me think that production and therefore delivery is still a very long way off.

With respect to these changes BFL may have been very conservative with their initial offering.

Mini SC units may have extra slots for more modules to buffer small issues. However only time will tell.

If you have decided on a product then its best to trust that you made a good call.  Hindsight is 20/20!

[squid]

In regards to the bASIC the plan was to have 2 PCB boards 27gH/s and 54gH/s for $1k/$2k respectively. However he found that price wise he could offer the $2k board at $1k after getting further along in the development (though I am sure this would not have happened if it were not for the competition that avalon brought).

[jwzguy]

all i see at the moment is BS.

Who are you again?

I'll tell you what sets off my alarm bells...multiple brand new posters bashing ASICs mining equipment companies.

[P_Shep]

Capitalism FTW

[Clearfly]

all i see at the moment is BS.

Who are you again?

I'll tell you what sets off my alarm bells...multiple brand new posters bashing ASICs mining equipment companies.

Someone with some common sense and a fresh perspective.

Asking said ASIC mining companies to explain their sudden shift in offerings is not bashing. It should be straight forward for them to answer.

It'll be interesting to see if they shift again should someone come out offereing a 100Ghs @ $1000 solution.

[Sitarow]

all i see at the moment is BS.

Who are you again?

I'll tell you what sets off my alarm bells...multiple brand new posters bashing ASICs mining equipment companies.

Someone with some common sense and a fresh perspective.

Asking said ASIC mining companies to explain their sudden shift in offerings is not bashing. It should be straight forward for them to answer.

It'll be interesting to see if they shift again should someone come out offereing a 100Ghs @ $1000 solution.

the thing about asking questions is that the answers will lead to more questions until one of two conditions are met.

1. are you satisfied with the answers.
2. are you satisfied with the working result as evidence.

[crazyates]

Not too long ago, all of the ASICs for preorder were ~30GHs/1kUSD, give or take 10%.

Avalon preorders come along, and ups that to ~46GHs/1kUSD. Everyone wants some! After the preorders, the Avalon's price would go up to $1999, which is ~30GHs/1kUSD, right in line with everyone else at the time.

Tom's bASIC sales weren't exactly extraordinary, so he had to do something to increase sales. Adding a 2nd chip to double the speed at the same price makes it much more attractive! Note that he didn't push his hardware beyond advertise specs, he just doubled the number of chips. Also, this put the bASIC ahead of the Avalon, at ~49GHs/1kUSD.

Meanwhile, BFL is still ~30GHs/1kUSD, which ain't lookin too good. However, their numbers were always conservative because they didn't want to do what they did last time, and advertise unobtainable specs. They push their hardware closer to their maximum specs, and now BFL's Single and MR are between 46-50GHs/1kUSD. Bam, competitive again.

I don't see any BS in any of this.

[bobitza]

How did they obtain this increase?

If it's through using conservative numbers and pushing the hardware in testing with stable results ... OK.
If they had to go back to the drawing board means that there will be delays in production and delivery dates. 

[legolouman]

If anyone was as far along with their design as they are saying, they wouldn't be able to change it.

[aqrulesms]

If anyone was as far along with their design as they are saying, they wouldn't be able to change it.

Exactly, they would most likely have to start from scratch and redo the development of the chip.  Such an increase is extremely fishy since they advertise that they will be able to ship next month.

Watch as the largest scam in bitcoin 2012 unfolds.