only 65% at betsofbitco.in
now how to go about using arbitrage here?
You could bet 10 btc on Obama on betsofbitcoin and $125 on Romney on intrade. Then if Romney wins, you get $500 but lose the 10 btc, or if Obama wins you get 15 btc and lose the $125.
There is some currency risk. If the price of bitcoin goes up past $50 (say to $51) and Romney wins, then you will have lost $510 in bitcoins, so you lost money. But I doubt we will hit $50 by November and if we did, this bet wouldn't matter. On the other side, if the price went down to under 8.33 (say 8.22), then you will win $123.3, but lose $125. I also kind of think this is unlikely, but is in the realm of possibility.
One note, though, I'm not sure how the betsofbitcoin time value thing works, and since it's a book, the more you put into it, the more you will even the odds, so this plan isn't fully without risk.
