ASICs - the race against time & the race get the most Gh/s from a W

[bobitza]

TRUTH: Because of ASICs, difficulty with sky rocket.

SPECULATION: I speculate that the race is on to:

1. Get the first units as soon as possible - short term
The more mining you can do while the difficulty is still low(ish) the more money you can get. This race is on for both consumers and companies. If you're a company planning to sell ASICs in Q2-Q3 2013, good luck! (unless you win the Gh/s/W race)

2. Get the most Gh/s out of an Watt of energy - long term
The higher the difficulty will jump, the more electricity costs will play an important role in deciding to buy new units or keep the existing ones running

Do you guys see any truth in this "speculation"?

[psilan]

It's barely even speculation.

[dooferorg]

2. Get the most Gh/s out of an Watt of energy - long term
The higher the difficulty will jump, the more electricity costs will play an important role in deciding to buy new units or keep the existing ones running

Do you guys see any truth in this "speculation"?

Isn't that kind of obvious that performance per watt will dictate what solutions stay for the long term?

[YokoToriyama]

as long as i get my asic before dec i will be good.

[bobitza]

Isn't that kind of obvious that performance per watt will dictate what solutions stay for the long term?

There are some voices that say GH/s/$$ is more important ...

[Korbman]

Ok, so I understand electricity implications on mining, but I don't understand why it's such a big deal...why is it so game changing?

Let's say I've got a 1.5TH/s mini rig at 1500 watts. At 1500 watts, I'm cranking through 36kWh per day, or 1,080kWh per month. I pay $0.15 per kWh, so that's $162 a month.
Even at 100x difficulty, the rig would still pull down almost $1,000 per month...so $162 is just a fraction of profits.

But why would I want to buy a $30,000 rig when the payback period is over 30 months?...electricity doesn't even come to mind when I think about ROI because it's so minuscule.

What am I missing?

[ragnard]

I think that is true.  With ASIC, power draw is much less a consideration when calculating profitability.  But, in hot climates, you also have to calculate cooling costs into the power equation too!

[bobitza]

@Korb

It's not that you're missing something. That's a good assessment on the ROI and the decision to buy or not to which I completely agree.

I was talking about people that already pre-ordered and the race to start mining first and about people that would need to decide to keep the devices running once they will have them or buy more. And how difficulty and electricity price will influence all that.

Not everybody has 30k to buy a minirig. If I run your 100x difficulty example through the calculator at http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php, with a 25 BTC reward, a 4.5 Gh/s Jalapeno and a 25W energy cost (jala + a netbook) I get all my profits eaten up by electricity.

Power cost per time frame: 2.74 USD
Revenue per time frame: 2.92 USD
      ... less power costs: 0.18 USD

[Korbman]

@Korb

It's not that you're missing something. That's a good assessment on the ROI and the decision to buy or not to which I completely agree.

I was talking about people that already pre-ordered and the race to start mining first and about people that would need to decide to keep the devices running once they will have them or buy more. And how difficulty and electricity price will influence all that.

Not everybody has 30k to buy a minirig. If I run your 100x difficulty example through the calculator at http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php, with a 25 BTC reward, a 4.5 Gh/s Jalapeno and a 25W energy cost (jala + a netbook) I get all my profits eaten up by electricity.

Power cost per time frame: 2.74 USD
Revenue per time frame: 2.92 USD
      ... less power costs: 0.18 USD

Ah Right, I see what you're saying that does make sense. Hopefully we won't have to deal with a 100x difficulty increase anytime soon

[crazyates]

@Korb

It's not that you're missing something. That's a good assessment on the ROI and the decision to buy or not to which I completely agree.

I was talking about people that already pre-ordered and the race to start mining first and about people that would need to decide to keep the devices running once they will have them or buy more. And how difficulty and electricity price will influence all that.

Not everybody has 30k to buy a minirig. If I run your 100x difficulty example through the calculator at http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php, with a 25 BTC reward, a 4.5 Gh/s Jalapeno and a 25W energy cost (jala + a netbook) I get all my profits eaten up by electricity.

Power cost per time frame: 2.74 USD
Revenue per time frame: 2.92 USD
      ... less power costs: 0.18 USD

1) The Jalapeno is one of the lowest MHs/$ ASICs. The SC Single is over 50% faster per dollar spent.
2) It's going to be rough to get to a 100x difficulty.

[bobitza]

1) The Jalapeno is one of the lowest MHs/$ ASICs. The SC Single is over 50% faster per dollar spent.

That's what I would like to "speculate" about with my fellow forumists here. From a ROI perspective, in the medium term, getting a rig that offers more Gh/s/$ is better than getting one that is offers more Gh/s/W. However, in the long run, both devices will pay off their initial costs and then the Gh/s/W will win.

What should we do if we don't have money to buy the best of both worlds? Will you bet on the long-run horse (Gh/s/W) or the short-medium run one (Gh/s/$)?

How high would the difficulty have to rise to change your mind?