Lets pretend for a minute that major BTC companies are scams.

[ElectricMucus]

What would happen if:

• All startups selling mining ASICs either directly or access to them are scams.
• Almost all GBLSE assets turn out to be a Ponzi or is only proftable as one.
• Major exchanges sell fake BTC or buy BTC with fake USD.

Before some of you call the scenario ridiculous and cry FUD consider this:

Before these ASIC companies showed up it was common consensus that a bitcoin ASIC would be very far down the road and that it would cost simply too much money and resources to do it. Then BFL showed up and the opinions shifted, suddenly it was the skeptics who were on the defense. They created an army of "supporters", yet the fundamental challenges remain. A background check didn't reveal any capability of producing such technology but a history of fraud.

Almost all GBLSE assets fall into these 2 categories: Mining and Lending.
The latter one is obvious: Effective interest rates are so high that there is no competition to bank loans. Added to that everybody can contact the Islamic Bank of Bitcoin with their business model and receive a free loan.
The former isn't so simple: While mining could generally be called a sound endeavor this is only true if it really produces coins at a sufficient operating margin. With the current way these mining "bonds" are set up that is not necessarily the case. We see the result in the ridiculous difficulty these days.

The history of exchanges is not a rosy one. Every one of them had their "hacks", glitches, was shut down or abandoned. Mtgox reigns supreme over the exchange market, and they are not audited. We know very little of the internal proceedings of it, and how much access individuals have to the system. Such a scenario would almost certainly go unnoticed. If fake bitcoins are sold it would only be noticeable on a bankrun since the vast majority of them is kept on the exchange by speculators. The opposite direction is also true, only if a huge part of the fiat money is withdrawn there would be issues.
At no point we were close to such a scenatio so during any period of it's operation nothing would have been noticed. I am aware that is highly speculative assessment because it can not be proven until it is too late.

[gusti]

What is a "fake" bitcoin ?

[ElectricMucus]

What is a "fake" bitcoin ?

Basically debt denominated in BTC which cannot be paid out. I call them that way because it is practiced to refer to mtgox balances as "bitcoins".
To produce a fake BTC the exchange would simply add a fake sell order to the book and allocate it as it applies.

[Akka]

If that would happen I would constantly shift every 5 minutes between a strong feeling of anger and rage to a feeling of deep depression.

So it would be just the same as everyday when I drive to work.


...

No really, I don't want to spread FUD, but I know why I currently hold my funds and don't invest in new mining equipment. Don't think its all a scam but the next month a to uncertain to make any moments in that direction. At least for me.


And why should any exchange hold face BTC. Unless they already spend their customers BTC elsewhere.
All BTC that are displayed had to be deposit somehow.

[repentance]

What is a "fake" bitcoin ?

I think he's insinuating that Mt Gox doesn't have sufficient reserves on hand to cover all user deposits.

[gusti]

What is a "fake" bitcoin ?

Basically debt denominated in BTC which cannot be paid out. I call them that way because it is practiced to refer to mtgox balances as "bitcoins".
To produce a fake BTC the exchange would simply add a fake sell order to the book and allocate it as it applies.

There is no way to produce a fake bitcoin, maybe you mean that any exchange could be running a fractional reserve or cheating with trades.

[ElectricMucus]

What is a "fake" bitcoin ?

Basically debt denominated in BTC which cannot be paid out. I call them that way because it is practiced to refer to mtgox balances as "bitcoins".
To produce a fake BTC the exchange would simply add a fake sell order to the book and allocate it as it applies.

There is no way to produce a fake bitcoin, maybe you mean that any exchange could be running a fractional reserve or cheating with trades.

That's exactly that. What's bad about the term "fake bitcoin"?
I wouldn't it calling it that if you couldn't pay with mtgox balances to merchants with the coins never leaving the exchange.

[evolve]

Lets pretend for a minute that major BTC companies are scams.

Yeah, that doesn't really take any pretending.

[FLHippy]

• All startups selling mining ASICs either directly or access to them are scams.
• Almost all GBLSE assets turn out to be a Ponzi or is only proftable as one.
• Major exchanges sell fake BTC or buy BTC with fake USD.

The fact that EVERYONE isn't operating on this assumption already is of utmost concern to me. People are so blinded by their greed that they have forgotten all of the evil entities that prey on any new technology. People are so quick to hand their money over to some mostly anonymous person they met on the internet. And we're not just talking about bitcoins either. Bitcoin related scams are sucking up real cash just as much as they are sucking up bitcoins.

Make money slowly is the method that all good advisors recommend. The time to be an early adopter has come and gone and bitcoin is now in the make money slowly phase of it's life. A skilled speculator might be able to game the system but greed gets those peoples money too.

Mining has followed the make money slowly model for a "long time" now... ASICs may indeed come. I hope they do, I would like to own at least one. But I don't believe the profits promised are realistic. It will still be a make money slowly situation and anyone who tells you differently is probably a liar. I don't want to be first in line to own one thats for sure.

I'll sign up for a free FPGA any day of the week though and I don't care what sig I have to wear to get one cause I'm only slightly less greedy than the next guy.

[Evolvex]

Well yes, its possible I think - I've pondered on the same thing myself, it could actually ALL be a giant scam, what more could a greedy person want than a get rich quick investment.

However I do think, that at its current growth, if it did start out a scam, then perhaps if the market growths enough it can outgrow any possible scam - so it will all be ok .... or the whole thing could just vanish and "poof your moneys gone".

[enmaku]

What's bad about the term "fake bitcoin"?

The fact that it perpetuates the myth that the core Bitcoin infrastructure is problematic. "Fake Bitcoin" implies counterfeiting, which can't happen. Call it what you actually believe it to be: fractional reserve banking, ponzi schemes, bad business models, people getting hacked because of their own bad security but not Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin itself is still strong and misusing your terms like this makes it appear weak.

[julz]

What's bad about the term "fake bitcoin"?

The fact that it perpetuates the myth that the core Bitcoin infrastructure is problematic. "Fake Bitcoin" implies counterfeiting, which can't happen. Call it what you actually believe it to be: fractional reserve banking, ponzi schemes, bad business models, people getting hacked because of their own bad security but not Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin itself is still strong and misusing your terms like this makes it appear weak.

Agreed enmaku. We've already had journalists referring to 'fake', 'counterfeit' and 'phony' bitcoins - and it creates misunderstandings of the Bitcoin system.
e.g
"Faked Bitcoins Caused Price Crash, Exchange Reveals"
http://www.pcworld.com/article/234890/faked_bitcoins_caused_price_crash_exchange_reveals.html

An anonymous hacker used phony Bitcoins (BTC) last month to drive down the price of the online currency from $17.50 to a penny within the span of 30 minutes, Bitcoin exchange firm Mt.Gox has revealed.

Please - let's not encourage this.

[jgarzik]

Before these ASIC companies showed up it was common consensus that a bitcoin ASIC would be very far down the road and that it would cost simply too much money and resources to do it.

Not true at all.  It was a matter of "when, not if."  Structured ASICs were pursued very early in bitcoin's life.  ASIC was always expected as the next step.

[ElectricMucus]

Before these ASIC companies showed up it was common consensus that a bitcoin ASIC would be very far down the road and that it would cost simply too much money and resources to do it.

Not true at all.  It was a matter of "when, not if."  Structured ASICs were pursued very early in bitcoin's life.  ASIC was always expected as the next step.

FPGA conversion ASICs was the thing often talked about yes. I haven't seen any mention that artforz went through with his. Later discussions mostly were about how it should be done some day.
You are right it was always considered the next step, but I really think there was a consensus that we're not there yet. From what I remeber people talked about bitcoin prices in the thriple to quadruple figures in order for it to be viable.

What's bad about the term "fake bitcoin"?

The fact that it perpetuates the myth that the core Bitcoin infrastructure is problematic. "Fake Bitcoin" implies counterfeiting, which can't happen. Call it what you actually believe it to be: fractional reserve banking, ponzi schemes, bad business models, people getting hacked because of their own bad security but not Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin itself is still strong and misusing your terms like this makes it appear weak.

Agreed enmaku. We've already had journalists referring to 'fake', 'counterfeit' and 'phony' bitcoins - and it creates misunderstandings of the Bitcoin system.
e.g
"Faked Bitcoins Caused Price Crash, Exchange Reveals"
http://www.pcworld.com/article/234890/faked_bitcoins_caused_price_crash_exchange_reveals.html

An anonymous hacker used phony Bitcoins (BTC) last month to drive down the price of the online currency from $17.50 to a penny within the span of 30 minutes, Bitcoin exchange firm Mt.Gox has revealed.

Please - let's not encourage this.

Alright, agreed - for the sake of bitcoin. I don't really think that the term in it's context is problematic still - it's just too convinient to use it.
For anybody understanding the basics that's merely semantics....

is faudulent bitcoin denominated debt ok? That's not too catchy though

[CJGoodings]

Lets pretend for a minute that major BTC companies are scams.

Yeah, that doesn't really take any pretending.

Yep, hes sound on from the looks of it.

[firefop]

• All startups selling mining ASICs either directly or access to them are scams.
• Almost all GBLSE assets turn out to be a Ponzi or is only proftable as one.
• Major exchanges sell fake BTC or buy BTC with fake USD.

The fact that EVERYONE isn't operating on this assumption already is of utmost concern to me. People are so blinded by their greed that they have forgotten all of the evil entities that prey on any new technology. People are so quick to hand their money over to some mostly anonymous person they met on the internet. And we're not just talking about bitcoins either. Bitcoin related scams are sucking up real cash just as much as they are sucking up bitcoins.

Make money slowly is the method that all good advisors recommend. The time to be an early adopter has come and gone and bitcoin is now in the make money slowly phase of it's life. A skilled speculator might be able to game the system but greed gets those peoples money too.

Mining has followed the make money slowly model for a "long time" now... ASICs may indeed come. I hope they do, I would like to own at least one. But I don't believe the profits promised are realistic. It will still be a make money slowly situation and anyone who tells you differently is probably a liar. I don't want to be first in line to own one thats for sure.

I'll sign up for a free FPGA any day of the week though and I don't care what sig I have to wear to get one cause I'm only slightly less greedy than the next guy.

Mining hasn't been about 'make money slowly' ever since gpu mining hit.

If you showed me any other investment where you could reasonable expect a 99% to 119% yearly --- when purchasing hardware that will retain 60%-80% of its value over that year... well... I'd call that investment 'get rich quick' too.

[adamstgBit]

• All startups selling mining ASICs either directly or access to them are scams.
• Almost all GBLSE assets turn out to be a Ponzi or is only proftable as one.
• Major exchanges sell fake BTC or buy BTC with fake USD.

The fact that EVERYONE isn't operating on this assumption already is of utmost concern to me. People are so blinded by their greed that they have forgotten all of the evil entities that prey on any new technology. People are so quick to hand their money over to some mostly anonymous person they met on the internet. And we're not just talking about bitcoins either. Bitcoin related scams are sucking up real cash just as much as they are sucking up bitcoins.

Make money slowly is the method that all good advisors recommend. The time to be an early adopter has come and gone and bitcoin is now in the make money slowly phase of it's life. A skilled speculator might be able to game the system but greed gets those peoples money too.

Mining has followed the make money slowly model for a "long time" now... ASICs may indeed come. I hope they do, I would like to own at least one. But I don't believe the profits promised are realistic. It will still be a make money slowly situation and anyone who tells you differently is probably a liar. I don't want to be first in line to own one thats for sure.

I'll sign up for a free FPGA any day of the week though and I don't care what sig I have to wear to get one cause I'm only slightly less greedy than the next guy.

Mining hasn't been about 'make money slowly' ever since gpu mining hit.

If you showed me any other investment where you could reasonable expect a 99% to 119% yearly --- when purchasing hardware that will retain 60%-80% of its value over that year... well... I'd call that investment 'get rich quick' too.

here's an informative poll - Minning Speculation -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=114802.0

[FreeMoney]

If I write in a database that I have X coins, those aren't 'fake' coins and more than if I write down that I have gold is it fake gold. I mean it isn't real, but it isn't even fake.

[Transisto]

What would happen if:

• All startups selling mining ASICs either directly or access to them are scams.

...

Before some of you call the scenario ridiculous and cry FUD consider this:

Before these ASIC companies showed up it was common consensus that a bitcoin ASIC would be very far down the road and that it would cost simply too much money and resources to do it. Then BFL showed up and the opinions shifted, suddenly it was the skeptics who were on the defense. They created an army of "supporters", yet the fundamental challenges remain. A background check didn't reveal any capability of producing such technology but a history of fraud.
...

A. Go ask for a quote on making a chip produced on 110nm to the various fabs.
B. Consider that the chip logic of SHA2 is one of the stupidest and simple to produce.
C. GET A FUCKING CLUE

While at it, What would happen if everyone on the forum is in fact fake and you're only talking with bots ?

[greyhawk]

While at it, What would happen if everyone on the forum is in fact fake and you're only talking with bots.

Do you wish that everyone on the forum is in fact fake and youre only talking with bots?