ASIC mining -- is my math right?

[Desolator]

Average daily commissions/donations: 0.00000000 BTC ($0.00) <-- this isn't correct.  Everyone thinks that they'll have the GH/s to solo mine.  Guess what, the problem is that EVERYONE thinks that, lol.  You'll probably end up on a pool.

Oh 10x isn't an extreme scenario. There's just pre orders confirmed right now between all the companies that would result in like 6x difficulty (I have re-run those with the new numbers to get a specific difficulty but that's in the ballpark).  Once pre-order people make money and buy more hardware plus other people see that the pre-orders were fulfilled and ASICs work so they start ordering (easily 2x to 3x the count of pre-orderers), that's the end of anyone ever making money with them.

[firefop]

Average daily commissions/donations: 0.00000000 BTC ($0.00) <-- this isn't correct.  Everyone thinks that they'll have the GH/s to solo mine.  Guess what, the problem is that EVERYONE thinks that, lol.  You'll probably end up on a pool.

Oh 10x isn't an extreme scenario. There's just pre orders confirmed right now between all the companies that would result in like 6x difficulty (I have re-run those with the new numbers to get a specific difficulty but that's in the ballpark).  Once pre-order people make money and buy more hardware plus other people see that the pre-orders were fulfilled and ASICs work so they start ordering (easily 2x to 3x the count of pre-orderers), that's the end of anyone ever making money with them.

the zero commissions is reasonable depending on how much hardware you've already ordered. SC rig, yah 1.5th/s is plenty for solo mining you're talking 1.1% of the network hash rate at somewhere between 5x and 10 difficulty.

sc Single - no you won't be going solo.

I agree with your numbers, we'll see 5x immediately then a quick climb to 10x (as first wavers cash out and reinvest - yes expect a couple days of the btc/usd being compeltely tanked). and a quick step to 10x... then a slower acceleration to 20x or 30x over the next year or so.

I should point out that FPGAs will still be profitable enough at 10x - and will start dropping off when the network hits 15x.
At 40x - an sc single will still make about double what a single is making right now... nobody should be shocked by this... ROI will still be between 5 and 6 months.

[dirtycat]

the zero commissions is reasonable depending on how much hardware you've already ordered. SC rig, yah 1.5th/s is plenty for solo mining you're talking 1.1% of the network hash rate at somewhere between 5x and 10 difficulty.

sc Single - no you won't be going solo.

I agree with your numbers, we'll see 5x immediately then a quick climb to 10x (as first wavers cash out and reinvest - yes expect a couple days of the btc/usd being compeltely tanked). and a quick step to 10x... then a slower acceleration to 20x or 30x over the next year or so.

I should point out that FPGAs will still be profitable enough at 10x - and will start dropping off when the network hits 15x.
At 40x - an sc single will still make about double what a single is making right now... nobody should be shocked by this... ROI will still be between 5 and 6 months.

I love your optimism.

[Desolator]

Ahhhh! *rips hair out* It doesn't just matter how much hardware you ordered or how fast it is!  It matters how much hardware you ordered and how fast it is compared to how much everyone else ordered and how fast everyone else is.  Everyone's like ooooh 300GH/s.  I can run my own pool let alone solo mine!  But guess what, other people ordered 2 TH/s worth.  It's not just the impressive speed numbers that are important.

I love your optimism.

I love your kitteh avatar! lol

[firefop]

the zero commissions is reasonable depending on how much hardware you've already ordered. SC rig, yah 1.5th/s is plenty for solo mining you're talking 1.1% of the network hash rate at somewhere between 5x and 10 difficulty.

sc Single - no you won't be going solo.

I agree with your numbers, we'll see 5x immediately then a quick climb to 10x (as first wavers cash out and reinvest - yes expect a couple days of the btc/usd being compeltely tanked). and a quick step to 10x... then a slower acceleration to 20x or 30x over the next year or so.

I should point out that FPGAs will still be profitable enough at 10x - and will start dropping off when the network hits 15x.
At 40x - an sc single will still make about double what a single is making right now... nobody should be shocked by this... ROI will still be between 5 and 6 months.

I love your optimism.

My optimism is backed up by having actually done the math. You should try it - it's very reassuring.
The only real variable we can't account for is total hash on the network, but not know what it will be - doesn't stop you from running numbers at different rates (adjust difficulty in your maths).

[Desolator]

Well, SOMEONE missed my post where I did do all the math and it's not optimistic at all.  Then another person did the math and got the same result.  Then I redid it and got the same result.  Then someone else did it and got the same result.

[Blazr]

AND assuming price remains same (worst case scenario, as I'm pretty bullish), block halving, and 10x difficulty (again, extreme scenario):

Once all ASIC vendors release their products, it's going to be a hell of a lot more than a 10x difficulty increase.

[dirtycat]

My optimism is backed up by having actually done the math. You should try it - it's very reassuring.
The only real variable we can't account for is total hash on the network, but not know what it will be - doesn't stop you from running numbers at different rates (adjust difficulty in your maths).

Your doing math on hypothesized numbers.  Again love the optimism.

[dirtycat]

I love your kitteh avatar! lol

thanks its a cute kitty I stole it off google images lol

[firefop]

Your doing math on hypothesized numbers.  Again love the optimism.

It's calculus - you get a nice derived function that you can increment difficulty in and get a lovely graph showing you at what difficulty which hash rates become unprofitable.

My ti-84 is still useful =P

[dirtycat]

Your doing math on hypothesized numbers.  Again love the optimism.

It's calculus - you get a nice derived function that you can increment difficulty in and get a lovely graph showing you at what difficulty which hash rates become unprofitable.

My ti-84 is still useful =P

well shit who am I to question a ti84.. I'm on board

[Desolator]

My optimism is backed up by having actually done the math. You should try it - it's very reassuring.
The only real variable we can't account for is total hash on the network, but not know what it will be - doesn't stop you from running numbers at different rates (adjust difficulty in your maths).

Your doing math on hypothesized numbers.  Again love the optimism.

Nope, they were real numbers released by the ASIC manufacturers (well the 2nd time)

[dirtycat]

My optimism is backed up by having actually done the math. You should try it - it's very reassuring.
The only real variable we can't account for is total hash on the network, but not know what it will be - doesn't stop you from running numbers at different rates (adjust difficulty in your maths).

Your doing math on hypothesized numbers.  Again love the optimism.

Nope, they were real numbers released by the ASIC manufacturers (well the 2nd time)

You wont know those numbers are real until the manufacturers actually release the devices.
You don't know how many of these are being manufactured/sold.

without those two pieces of information you wont be able to give a definitive answer to anything related to difficulty/profit without using "it could be" "it should be" "it might be" "could be around" "should be around".

as I stated I love the optimism I would hope to get roi at 5-6 months (again not a exact number) with a sc single at 40x

[firefop]

as I stated I love the optimism I would hope to get roi at 5-6 months (again not a exact number) with a sc single at 40x

at 40x with a single - you're look at 7.2 - 8.6 months - ish.  =P

[Desolator]

No, the manufacturers have released real, actual numbers.  BFL said "we have $250,000 in pre-orders" and bASIC said "we have around 400 pre-orders."  Didn't I just say that?

[dirtycat]

until they release an actual working product your math is based on hypothesized numbers

your math is not including other companies producing along with who knows how many private groups

there is no telling how long roi will be

[dirtycat]

as I stated I love the optimism I would hope to get roi at 5-6 months (again not a exact number) with a sc single at 40x

at 40x with a single - you're look at 7.2 - 8.6 months - ish.  =P

you said:

At 40x - an sc single will still make about double what a single is making right now... nobody should be shocked by this... ROI will still be between 5 and 6 months.

is it 5 or 6 or 7.2- 8.6...

[dirtycat]

here's the deal I am not trying to step all over your math it looks right and I can agree with it.. however.. there is no account for other companies producing or private groups along with how many will be produced.. on top of that there are no known products out now that show us what they can do.. we can take their word for it if you like but I wanna know where this is going to go.  Until these devices are out in the wild hashing away we don't know anything.

[MrTeal]

No, the manufacturers have released real, actual numbers.  BFL said "we have $250,000 in pre-orders" and bASIC said "we have around 400 pre-orders."  Didn't I just say that?

BFL did say $250k, but that was just the BTC orders (not wire transfers) just in the first day. They will have significantly more now. Last count for bASIC is 600@54GH/s and 50@27GH/s. Avalon has sold out two preorders of 300 pieces apiece at 60GH/s.

BFL - Unknown, but almost certainly over 100TH/s
bASIC - 34TH/s
Avalon - 36TH/s

[Desolator]

I assume there were supposed to be T's in front of those final numbers, not G's