ASIC mining -- is my math right?

[MrTeal]

I assume there were supposed to be T's in front of those final numbers, not G's

Possibly.

Also, ASICMINER will be coming out in the same timeframe as BFL/bASIC, and the Reclaimer project possibly in the spring. There's going to be a big push in the next couple months, likely well past 10x by the end of January. I'm not sure how fast it will keep up with that pace though, alot will depend on how manufacturers price their units one the orders start slowing down.

[bigasic]

I've said from the beginning that ASIC producers will sale their machines at a price to which people will buy. If the bitcoin/usd price doesnt keep up with the difficulty, ALL manufacturers will drop their prices accordingly. Also, I think those of us that ordered in the first month was a bad idea. BFL has already stated that they want all pre-orders caught up by the years end and by then you will be able to order and have it shipped to you the next day. So, what advantage do all the early purchases have?

I have invested a considerable sum, but I wont purchase any more until I see what happens. I gambled at the beginning and maybe it will pay off and maybe not.. But I surely think its not a wise move to make ANY investment into an asic until you have a good idea what the difficulty is going to be and how fast its rising..

I think we have all vastly underestimated BFL and the others pre-orders, why don't they tell us how many terahashes or petahashes they have sold? because no one would shell out even 1200 bucks for a sc single if there is already a petahash pre-ordered. I think a lot of people are ordering while looking at todays difficulty.. sure, 1.5ths would make a pretty penny right now, but in 2 months? it wont be looking so rosy..

I predict the sc mini rig will cost around 5k within 6 months or they make them 10x faster for 30k My bet is that they will just make them faster...(unless the bitcoin/usd price stays ahead of the difficulty).. I sure as hell wont want to invest 30k into a machine that may never recoup its original investment....

[creativex]

Of all the companies expected to deliver by year end it's BFL with both the first expected delivery date and by far the largest quantity of units to deliver(minimum 3x). It's also BFL that is least likely to meet their time table given their past record. Maybe that means someone else ships right around the same time as BFL, and maybe that means a smaller manufacturer gives their customers a huge advantage by beating BFL's delayed delivery. Such customers would quickly meet ROI with a relatively small number of ASICs out in the wild.

[firefop]

Of all the companies expected to deliver by year end it's BFL with both the first expected delivery date and by far the largest quantity of units to deliver(minimum 3x). It's also BFL that is least likely to meet their time table given their past record. Maybe that means someone else ships right around the same time as BFL, and maybe that means a smaller manufacturer gives their customers a huge advantage by beating BFL's delayed delivery. Such customers would quickly meet ROI with a relatively small number of ASICs out in the wild.

It's also BFL that has (by far) the most finished product and best packaging... as well as the best specs. (only bASIC has better mh/s/$ numbers and it's very slight - and overshadowed by the fact that you don't get power supplies or an enclosure included in the price).

bASIC might still be able to pull ahead... but the only thing I can think of that would do it, is much lower power consumption, and we won't have hard numbers on that until both products are loose in the wild.

[MrTeal]

Of all the companies expected to deliver by year end it's BFL with both the first expected delivery date and by far the largest quantity of units to deliver(minimum 3x). It's also BFL that is least likely to meet their time table given their past record. Maybe that means someone else ships right around the same time as BFL, and maybe that means a smaller manufacturer gives their customers a huge advantage by beating BFL's delayed delivery. Such customers would quickly meet ROI with a relatively small number of ASICs out in the wild.

It's also BFL that has (by far) the most finished product and best packaging... as well as the best specs. (only bASIC has better mh/s/$ numbers and it's very slight - and overshadowed by the fact that you don't get power supplies or an enclosure included in the price).

bASIC might still be able to pull ahead... but the only thing I can think of that would do it, is much lower power consumption, and we won't have hard numbers on that until both products are loose in the wild.

Cablepair has stated that the bASIC products will be competitive with any other ASIC, not the same or better. He also said he doesn't expect BFL to meet their 1GH/J spec. If I had to guess, I'd say that the bASIC units might be in the range of 100W for the 54GH/s unit.

[macsga]

I agree with dirtycat's position. After ASICs are out the majority of GPU miners are going to quit mining. That means, the only hashpower will be coming from the second gen machines. No matter how many of those are there, they probably will fail to match (instantly) the current network hashpower. Have you ever wondered why they're not shipping single units right now and they wait until they have a mass shipment out?

That's simply because they want the current network hashrate (http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate) to be taken over without drops. That means the current 22500GH/s is matched with (at least) 375 BFL's SC singles (or equivalent). They (both ASICs manufacturers & the BTC network hashrate managers) want to make sure the transition will go smoothly.

Now: Just imagine your current 1BTC/day setup that settled you back $2000 to buy, suddenly produces 1/10th the BTCs you make now; won't you just quit? I'd easily say ''yes''; but there's a case I won't. That case will be *IF* I'd still (somehow) manage to make a fraction of my current production at a cost that pays my electricity bills; or even better somehow maintain my current BTC/day production. If MANY people quit GPU mining, I might as well (it's a faint scenario) continue to mine with my 5970s for as long as it's fair for me...

All in all: I strongly believe that the transition from GPUs to ASICs will not occur instantly. There will be a fair amount of time that miners will be on the verge "to ASIC or not to ASIC". If the BTC production for them make a quick payoff, I personally will quit mining and (for a couple of weeks) will only buy cheap bitcoins (a rough estimation will be about $5 to $6 each). Then I'll use my freshly aquired BTCs to get myself a couple of ASICs...

Cheers.

[BitBlitz]

...They (both ASICs manufacturers & the BTC network hashrate managers) want to make sure the transition will go smoothly.

Who the hell are the "BTC network hashrate managers"? Are they the ones making crop circles??

[Zeek_W]

...They (both ASICs manufacturers & the BTC network hashrate managers) want to make sure the transition will go smoothly.

Who the hell are the "BTC network hashrate managers"? Are they the ones making crop circles??

I like to think of them as these fellows from Dark City:

[macsga]

...They (both ASICs manufacturers & the BTC network hashrate managers) want to make sure the transition will go smoothly.

Who the hell are the "BTC network hashrate managers"? Are they the ones making crop circles??

Didn't you know that Satoshi Nakamoto is an alien? 

[MrTeal]

I need to find out where he's buying these $5-$6 BTC.

[firefop]

here's the deal I am not trying to step all over your math it looks right and I can agree with it.. however.. there is no account for other companies producing or private groups along with how many will be produced.. on top of that there are no known products out now that show us what they can do.. we can take their word for it if you like but I wanna know where this is going to go.  Until these devices are out in the wild hashing away we don't know anything.

Agreed - I've pre-ordered some BFL - but also going to get some bASIC (since the bigger ones are actually cheaper) just to try them out. I'm not sold on the idea of a bareboard without power supply or enclosure, but we'll just have to see.

[dirtycat]

here's the deal I am not trying to step all over your math it looks right and I can agree with it.. however.. there is no account for other companies producing or private groups along with how many will be produced.. on top of that there are no known products out now that show us what they can do.. we can take their word for it if you like but I wanna know where this is going to go.  Until these devices are out in the wild hashing away we don't know anything.

Agreed - I've pre-ordered some BFL - but also going to get some bASIC (since the bigger ones are actually cheaper) just to try them out. I'm not sold on the idea of a bareboard without power supply or enclosure, but we'll just have to see.

After the dust settles I think I will go the bASIC route.. but if BFL improves its shipping times and that fun stuff I may go that way too... but then the Avalon sounds just as great.. so I am all over the place lol

[ralree]

...They (both ASICs manufacturers & the BTC network hashrate managers) want to make sure the transition will go smoothly.

Who the hell are the "BTC network hashrate managers"? Are they the ones making crop circles??

Didn't you know that Satoshi Nakamoto is an alien? 

Not as outlandish as all the Illuminati/Rothschild/Bilderberg/jewish/reptillian conspiracy theories that seem to be heavily coupled with the bitcoin community.

[macsga]

LOL! true story... 

[Gatorhex]

This was my math (back when BTC=$12.53)

Difficulty will become 10x (just add a zero to the end of the current difficulty)
Coin reward in December 2012 will half to 25 coins (effectively doubling difficulty)
So projected profits (after power costs @ 0.15c KW/h and 1 BTC=$12.53 and ignoring equipment cost) are...

Jalapeno (4,500MH/s@4.5W) = $0.91pd, $27.30pm, $332.15pa

Little Single (30,000MH/s@30W) = $6.08pd, $182.40pm, $2,219.20pa

Single SC (60,000MH/s@60W) = $12.16pd, $364.80pm, $4,438.40pa

Mini Rig SC (1,500,000MH/s@1500W) = $304.04pd, $9,121.20pm, $110,974.60pa

You can calculate it yourself here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

[MrTeal]

This was my math (back when BTC=$12.53)

Difficulty will become 10x (just add a zero to the end of the current difficulty)
Coin reward in December 2012 will half to 25 coins (effectively doubling difficulty)
So projected profits (after power costs @ 0.15c KW/h and 1 BTC=$12.53 and ignoring equipment cost) are...

Jalapeno (4,500MH/s@4.5W) = $0.91pd, $27.30pm, $332.15pa

Little Single (30,000MH/s@30W) = $6.08pd, $182.40pm, $2,219.20pa

Single SC (60,000MH/s@60W) = $12.16pd, $364.80pm, $4,438.40pa

Mini Rig SC (1,500,000MH/s@1500W) = $304.04pd, $9,121.20pm, $110,974.60pa

You can calculate it yourself here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Your calculations only use a step increase in hash rate. That might work well for a per day calculation right after you get it, but you need to factor in an increase in hashrate throughout the year for per annum income. For instance, if when you get your Minirig the network hashrate is 10x what it is now you would earn $110k in the first year if difficulty stays constant, $79k if it increases linearly over the year from 10x to 20x, $59k if it increases to 40x, etc.

Most likely, if you're looking at buying a BFL product now you won't get it until at least the new year. By that time we can probably expect about 250TH/s from BFL, another 54TH/s from bASIC and possibly ~40TH/s from Avalon to be on the network, as well maybe another 10TH/s that's FPGA and can still mine profitably at high difficulty for awhile. Starting with 350TH/s and assuming the network grows to 1PH/s over the next year, at $12/BTC you would make about $40k from a Minirig SC.

[Gatorhex]

My numbers assume

10x difficulty + 0.5 reward = same as 20x difficulty

+

Moore's Law profitability decline per year:  of 0.61

[nobbynobbynoob]

This was my math (back when BTC=$12.53)

Difficulty will become 10x (just add a zero to the end of the current difficulty)
Coin reward in December 2012 will half to 25 coins (effectively doubling difficulty)
So projected profits (after power costs @ 0.15c KW/h and 1 BTC=$12.53 and ignoring equipment cost) are...

Jalapeno (4,500MH/s@4.5W) = $0.91pd, $27.30pm, $332.15pa

Little Single (30,000MH/s@30W) = $6.08pd, $182.40pm, $2,219.20pa

Single SC (60,000MH/s@60W) = $12.16pd, $364.80pm, $4,438.40pa

Mini Rig SC (1,500,000MH/s@1500W) = $304.04pd, $9,121.20pm, $110,974.60pa

You can calculate it yourself here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Your calculations only use a step increase in hash rate. That might work well for a per day calculation right after you get it, but you need to factor in an increase in hashrate throughout the year for per annum income. For instance, if when you get your Minirig the network hashrate is 10x what it is now you would earn $110k in the first year if difficulty stays constant, $79k if it increases linearly over the year from 10x to 20x, $59k if it increases to 40x, etc.

Most likely, if you're looking at buying a BFL product now you won't get it until at least the new year. By that time we can probably expect about 250TH/s from BFL, another 54TH/s from bASIC and possibly ~40TH/s from Avalon to be on the network, as well maybe another 10TH/s that's FPGA and can still mine profitably at high difficulty for awhile. Starting with 350TH/s and assuming the network grows to 1PH/s over the next year, at $12/BTC you would make about $40k from a Minirig SC.

This looks like a good fundamental analysis.

We (many of us) might be being optimistic about the likely increase in difficulty through 2013.
Conversely, we might be pessimistically not considering that BTC price might skyrocket to $50+/BTC in 2013.

Our mileage will vary.

[MrTeal]

My numbers assume

10x difficulty + 0.5 reward = same as 20x difficulty

+

Moore's Law profitability decline per year:  of 0.61

I don't get your numbers with a profitability decline of 0.61, but I do get them with 1.0 (no decline). Are you sure on the numbers you posted?