The Reason Bitcoin Price Fluctuates That Nobody Talks About

[BitProdigy]

Because the value of a dollar fluctuates.

I've noticed that, just like when we just dropped from $280 to $260, the timing corresponds with an increase in the strength of the dollar. And in other times when the strength in the dollar decreases, the price of bitcoin goes up.

We have to recognize that we are measuring the value of bitcoin against a currency whose value fluctuates from time to time. If $1 buys you a loaf of bread today, and $5 buys you one loaf of bread tomorrow, then then it follows that 1 BTC will be worth more $$ tomorrow. I don't know why nobody talks about this.

[cryptasm]

Yea You are Right but its not the Main reason of btc fluctuating

[nicked]

I think China did devalue the Yuan today.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I wish it were as simple as trading the USD/JPY or EUR/USD pairs that have good inverse correlations, but it doesn't work that way. Not usually.


The blue box is a signal to trade something else

[BitProdigy]

I wish it were as simple as trading the USD/JPY or EUR/USD pairs that have good inverse correlations, but it doesn't work that way. Not usually.


The blue box is a signal to trade something else

Actually that looks like a pretty good correlation. If you look at 7 -14 btc goes up as USD goes down until 7-22, then BTC goes down as EUSD goes up, for most of that graph they are almost perfect mirror images of each other which is what you would expect to see if I am correct.

Of course there are other factors that play into the price of BTC, it is not only a reaction to variation in the value of the currency it is measured in, of course big buys and big sells, rallies etc. occur and affect the BTC price, but I think this graph shows that another lesser known factor is just the simple variation in the value of the fiat currency we measure the BTC price in.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I wish it were as simple as trading the USD/JPY or EUR/USD pairs that have good inverse correlations, but it doesn't work that way. Not usually.


The blue box is a signal to trade something else

Actually that looks like a pretty good correlation. If you look at 7 -14 btc goes up as USD goes down until 7-22, then BTC goes down as EUSD goes up, for most of that graph they are almost perfect mirror images of each other which is what you would expect to see if I am correct.

Of course there are other factors that play into the price of BTC, it is not only a reaction to variation in the value of the currency it is measured in, of course big buys and big sells, rallies etc. occur and affect the BTC price, but I think this graph shows that another lesser known factor is just the simple variation in the value of the fiat currency we measure the BTC price in.

The vertical lines inside the big box on the upper chart has a certain amount of correlation, but I think a big reason for that was the Greek issues. Outside of that box, I think it's arguable that there isn't enough consistency to even try to use the Eur/USD pair as any kind of indicator of Bitcoin movements.
Upper==BTC/CYN
Lower==EUR/USD


The vertical lines are based on Bitcoin highs and lows that didn't fall on weekends.

[BitProdigy]

The vertical lines inside the big box on the upper chart has a certain amount of correlation, but I think a big reason for that was the Greek issues. Outside of that box, I think it's arguable that there isn't enough consistency to even try to use the Eur/USD pair as any kind of indicator of Bitcoin movements.

To clarify: What I am claiming is that when USD *drops* we should see a corresponding *rise* in bitcoin. This is because the purchasing power or value of USD has fallen, it therefore takes more USD to purchase bread milk and bitcoin. Also if USD *rises* we should see a corresponding *drop* in btc.

So as it seems from your comment you are looking for a correspondence in BTC rise with USD rise, and correspondence in BTC drop with USD drop, what you should really be looking for is a mirror image if I am right. With a USD rise you should see a BTC drop, and with a USD drop you should see a BTC rise.

Considering this, it seems the chart shows VERY good correspondence every on the chart EXCEPT in the blue box.

[gogxmagog]

I thought the price pattern was always;
If I need to sell, price drops
When I need to buy, price rises.
It's simple

[glorytime]

I thought the price pattern was always;
If I need to sell, price drops
When I need to buy, price rises.
It's simple

That's how it works for me too.  I'm the perfect indicator, lol. 

[sgbett]

I should have a few quid to spare next month, I expect to see a sharp rise end of august

[Mudd]

Because the value of a dollar fluctuates.

This isn't why. It's just basic supply and demand, though it's the value of bitcoin in fiat that fluctuates as bitcoin is always worth one btc. Hopefully one day we wont peg fiat to bitcoin but maybe the other way round 

saving my address 1E3UT9eVi5MobByYwwfTcQh6RbXBbQjyyD

[gentlemand]

Why would anyone think the Bitcoin market reacts to the global daddies for any other reason than sentiment?

The amount of people who could send it to the stars or the depths of hell would probably all fit on the top floor of a bus. Get real.

[Scaccomatt0]

I thought the price pattern was always;
If I need to sell, price drops
When I need to buy, price rises.
It's simple

this is a postulate

[Dilla]

Yea one of many factors. Way to go Sherlock

[RodeoX]

I would guess you are right about the dollar's relationship to price. But i think it would be easy to overstate this effect. Bitcoin is traded around the world for various currencies and even currencies that are mostly cut off from the dollar.