reward droping will not effect the price... everyone knows its coming and the rally to 15 was all about the reward drop
what will happen is all the miners that held off selling for the reward drop, will panic sell when they see the reward halfing had little effect on price + mining with the new ASICs is going to be barely profitable, that's one more reason to sell off the horde.
how much coins have been mined for hording?
I think half of all coins is not a bad guess... that's 5million coins.... HELLO!
supply with literally double over night.
The Plunge! its coming... are you ready
They say buy on rumor sell on news, this could not be more true for the reward drop.
I have to disagree with some of what you've said.
1. ASICs will be profitable for a while at least. They draw very little power, and the payouts are relative to overall hash, so it's a self-balancing equation.
2. Many people may be hoarding, but most of those are long-term hoarders, they're willing to wait years for their big payout.
There may be big drops, but there will be people like myself standing there with buckets to catch the cheap bitcoins raining from the sky and increase our own hoards. It'll be all good in the end. Just sit back and watch the fun begin.