If Bitcoin ever did go completely mainstream...

[hashman]

If Bitcoin ever did go completely mainstream and actually succeeded in killing off some fiat currencies, it would make just about every person on this forum incredibly wealthy. The new wealthy elite would be roughly 95% male, and dominated by geeks/nerds/libertarians/smart people. 

Speculate on how you think this would affect the world we live in.  What would be different vs today's world?

I would speculate that most geeks/nerds/libertarians/smart people will not be able to resist temptations and will not be able to run the marathon, most will be sprinters and will sell out most or all BTC holdings way under 1000$ per BTC to the banksters.

+1

Yes, people will sell bitcoins all the way up.  (duh, for every buy there's a sell)  The demographic will change.    

In the end we will have eliminated a certain amount of fraud from the monetary system but we will still have a bunch of rich assholes making many of the same dumb mistakes as the rich assholes of a century ago.  

[mobile4ever]

It wouldn't make sense for bitcoin to kill fiat currency since it is entirely backed by fiat currency.

Face it, if you couldn't exchange bitcoins for dollars, not one single person would bother with them.  Just go to any thread where someone is scamming/selling something.  Everything is translated in US dollar value.

This is only partly true. I personally would enjoy taking USD out of the equation.

I would accept only bitcoin, period.

But you can't. Price something in bitcoin without looking at the exchange rate to dollars. (You can do it off the top of your head but lets say in 18 months)

Bitcoin just started the wrong way. If it were used for example trading pictures you made, or something else easily produced by everybody instead of buying somebody a pizza it would have turned out very differently. This is a social issue not a economical or technical one.

I can and I do. Even in currencies that you would not think. But what is the history of money?

This is a social issue not a economical or technical one.

You are right, and in most every social issue there are leaders and followers. How did those funny little pieces of paper with their pyramids and such get to be in our hands? Someone simply decided it to be that way. What is the history of the paper money we use today?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LaSrxtWfgc

How did gold start out as a money?

All you have to do is to decide to use bitcoin as money, and boom, it is money. If you convince everyone you deal with to use it, job is complete.



For world domination to take effect, it takes 15 to 18 percent adoption:

http://www.ted.com/talks/simon_sinek_how_great_leaders_inspire_action.html

We all sit at various places at various times on this scale, but what the law of diffusion of innovation tells us is that if you want mass-market success or mass-market acceptance of an idea, you cannot have it until you achieve this tipping point between 15 and 18 percent market penetration, and then the system tips.


And I love asking businesses, "What's your conversion on new business?" And they love to tell you, "Oh, it's about 10 percent," proudly. Well, you can trip over 10 percent of the customers. We all have about 10 percent who just "get it." That's how we describe them, right? That's like that gut feeling, "Oh, they just get it."


The problem is: How do you find the ones that get it before you're doing business with them versus the ones who don't get it? So it's this here, this little gap that you have to close, as Jeffrey Moore calls it, "Crossing the Chasm" -- because, you see, the early majority will not try something until someone else has tried it first.


And these guys, the innovators and the early adopters, they're comfortable making those gut decisions. They're more comfortable making those intuitive decisions that are driven by what they believe about the world and not just what product is available.

How many here are in the "innovators and early adopters" group? If that is you, you will have a bright future, in my opinion. But there will be a fight to get there.

[Mageant]

How many here are in the "innovators and early adopters" group? If that is you, you will have a bright future, in my opinion. But there will be a fight to get there.

I think nearly everybody here belongs to those groups (with regards to Bitcoin).

[SuperHakka]

Here's my 2 satoshis, I think that the best that bitcoin can achieve is to replace all cash in circulation in the economy. Bearing in mind that cash in circulation is only a small fraction of the total money supply. Maybe even this is a bit ambitious of a target. I can't see it being used as a significant store of wealth for the masses as people just don't have the due care and dilligence to protect and look after their bitcoins properly I'm afraid to say.

[CIYAM]

Personally I somehow doubt that it could ever get that far (although I would love to see it do so) - I think the best that can really be hoped for (realistically) is for Bitcoin to become a major currency for online services and virtual goods as well as a new form of stored wealth that is much more easily transacted than gold (or other commodities).

Governments (while they continue to exist) are extremely unlikely to ever give up control of their fiat currencies (or of course their taxes).

[grishnakh]

Personally I somehow doubt that it could ever get that far (although I would love to see it do so) - I think the best that can really be hoped for (realistically) is for Bitcoin to become a major currency for online services and virtual goods as well as a new form of stored wealth that is much more easily transacted than gold (or other commodities).

Governments (while they continue to exist) are extremely unlikely to ever give up control of their fiat currencies (or of course their taxes).

+1

[Mageant]

For world domination to take effect, it takes 15 to 18 percent adoption:

BTW, the libertarian party in the US is polling at about 10%, so potentially - assuming Bitcoin can become widespread among libertarians - Bitcoin is not that far away from mass adoption.

[ElectricMucus]

Ever played any online game with ingame currency? There are no pricetags in dollars. Well at least used to in Diablo III that is possible too. The difference here is item prices in dollar follow their ingame gold value not verse visa.
That's the point I'm trying to make if bitcoin started as a trading tool for something valuable but not necessarily costly (for example game items or pictures) it would have evolved very differently. It's already too late for that since we have almost half of all bitcoins valued in dollar instead of something fundamental.

I wouldn't say it's too late to change that…

I just wrote that because I can't think of any.
I'm open to suggestions... and I mean it.

[mobile4ever]

For world domination to take effect, it takes 15 to 18 percent adoption:

BTW, the libertarian party in the US is polling at about 10%, so potentially - assuming Bitcoin can become widespread among libertarians - Bitcoin is not that far away from mass adoption.

Its not just potentially. Its the "the law of diffusion of innovation". That is how it works.

[kyotoku]

Ever played any online game with ingame currency? There are no pricetags in dollars. Well at least used to in Diablo III that is possible too. The difference here is item prices in dollar follow their ingame gold value not verse visa.
That's the point I'm trying to make if bitcoin started as a trading tool for something valuable but not necessarily costly (for example game items or pictures) it would have evolved very differently. It's already too late for that since we have almost half of all bitcoins valued in dollar instead of something fundamental.

I wouldn't say it's too late to change that…

I just wrote that because I can't think of any.
I'm open to suggestions... and I mean it.

It does't matter, if it happened as you said (game items for bitcoin), then you can know the exchange rate between dollars and bitcoin by knowing the price in dollars of the game items. Dollars, and currency in general are used as the common denominator because it is a more widespread commodity than game items. That's the function of money, to serve as a means of comparison.

[Evolvex]

I'm sure being incredibly wealthy will be nice, but am I the only one who's more excited about the "I-Told-You-So's"? Because those are gonna be epic.

I dont half look forward to that "I told you so" day - the amount of stick I get for being into "magic internet money" is stupid lol - be nice to say "I told you it was awesome".

[franky1]

i look forward to the day u can buy a banana for X bitcoin and pay ur rent with YYY bitcoin. with no mention of FIAT in the trade talk at all..

bitcoin would need to develop a commodity pricing index to use as a comparison for true btc value to be able to go main stream.
the first step is setting a minimum/average wage and look at how much product can be made in that time to get a cost value.

EG how much banana was picked from the tree in a day divided by a days worth of minimum wage = banana costs

EG if u can mine 1BTC a day thats ur daily wage.. if someone can pick 500 banana's in a day then a single banana would be worth 500th of a bitcoin(0.002) for that banana picker.

which by the time food distributors get all the banana's to shops and all the profit/expenses are calculated in bitcoins a banana might end up being worth 50th of a bitcoin..(0.02) based on each level of the production/delivery/retailer getting a profit which would still be value.

which if using those same maths in FIAT terms
US average minimum wage $7.25 =15c banana
UK average minimum wage £6.19 =12p banana

[deeplink]

i look forward to the day u can buy a banana for X bitcoin and pay ur rent with YYY bitcoin. with no mention of FIAT in the trade talk at all..

bitcoin would need to develop a commodity pricing index to use as a comparison for true btc value to be able to go main stream.
the first step is setting a minimum/average wage and look at how much product can be made in that time to get a cost value.

EG how much banana was picked from the tree in a day divided by a days worth of minimum wage = banana costs

EG if u can mine 1BTC a day thats ur daily wage.. if someone can pick 500 banana's in a day then a single banana would be worth 500th of a bitcoin(0.002) for that banana picker.

which by the time food distributors get all the banana's to shops and all the profit/expenses are calculated in bitcoins a banana might end up being worth 50th of a bitcoin..(0.02) based on each level of the production/delivery/retailer getting a profit which would still be value.

which if using those same maths in FIAT terms
US average minimum wage $7.25 =15c banana
UK average minimum wage £6.19 =12p banana

You have no idea what you are talking about, do you?

At least read Subjective theory of value and Labor theory of value, then come back.

[franky1]

You have no idea what you are talking about, do you?

At least read Subjective theory of value and Labor theory of value, then come back.

subjective theory. is about supply and demand which is what a retailer would work out as the value.. EG reccommended retail price which can be anything from my 500th of BTC commodity price to a GUESSSSSSSSSS i made of the retail price of 50th.

that 50th (0.02btc) could be any number.

but to get to the first step of globalising BTC u need to get commodity prices sorted.

as for the labor theory.. thats based on setting wage based on how much production can be done..

which is where slavery started.. but in modern days a minimum wage needs to be set to avoid the slavery days of distant decades we have tried to forget about. and then base product price on those costs. note i said theories. not rules

thus making the world a fairer place.

but hey everyone has their own opinion.. i personally dont want to be the slave lord whipping people so i can be rich at the expense of others. i want an equal world where if im in control of my money i can help other people out.. others have the wannabe rich mentality..

money in the pocket is not as valuable as the happiness in your face.

why use rules and theories already in existance, which have resulted in the current epic failure of current economic status of FIAT. we can set our own theories on how to create value

[mobile4ever]

i look forward to the day u can buy a banana for X bitcoin and pay ur rent with YYY bitcoin. with no mention of FIAT in the trade talk at all..

bitcoin would need to develop a commodity pricing index to use as a comparison for true btc value to be able to go main stream.
the first step is setting a minimum/average wage and look at how much product can be made in that time to get a cost value.

EG how much banana was picked from the tree in a day divided by a days worth of minimum wage = banana costs

EG if u can mine 1BTC a day thats ur daily wage.. if someone can pick 500 banana's in a day then a single banana would be worth 500th of a bitcoin(0.002) for that banana picker.

which by the time food distributors get all the banana's to shops and all the profit/expenses are calculated in bitcoins a banana might end up being worth 50th of a bitcoin..(0.02) based on each level of the production/delivery/retailer getting a profit which would still be value.

which if using those same maths in FIAT terms
US average minimum wage $7.25 =15c banana
UK average minimum wage £6.19 =12p banana

I think the same thinking could be passed along to the world. If you want, make a site that reflects your idea. Make a directory with a voting system for every part of the world.

It would show what people in their part of the world would pay in bitcoin for anything, just like you said, a banana for "X" or rent for "YYY".

Let me know if you do it, please.

[franky1]

I think the same thinking could be passed along to the world. If you want, make a site that reflects your idea. Make a directory with a voting system for every part of the world.

It would show what people in their part of the world would pay in bitcoin for anything, just like you said, a banana for "X" or rent for "YYY".

Let me know if you do it, please.

i might make a website that is like a bitcoin commodity listing. im right now trying to find live data on how many new coins / rewards are made a hour/day /week or whatever. searching the pool stats pages for average income seems to be the starting stage of working out a minimum wage to then get some prices rolling from that.

e.g time to reward found / active users = average user income.

still doing some maths to find a fair income calculation

[BlackHeartFund]

The new wealthy elite would be roughly 95% male, and dominated by geeks/nerds/libertarians/smart people.  

Yeah, that would be a really world altering change!

Bill Gates   $61.3 billion
Mark Zuckerberg  $21 billion
Larry Ellison  $37.9 billion
Sergey Brin  $18.7 billion
Larry Page  $18.7 billion
Carlos Slim  $60.6 billion
Kevin Rose  $160 million
Vlasimir Yevtushenkov  $9 billion
The Late Steve Jobs  $7 billion
Azim Premji  $15.9 billion
Satoru Iwata  $7.8 billion
Masayoshi Son  $7 billion
Jeff Bezos   $8.7 Billlion
Pierre Omidyar  $6.3 Billion
Eric Schmidt  $5.9 Billion
Ronald Burkle  $3.5 Billion
Mark Cuban    $2.6 billion
Peter Thiel   $1.3 billion
Peter Cashmore   $95 million   
and on and on and on and on...........

yeah but this list is bullshit, it consists of the people the elite want us to think control the wealth. If you don't think Putin and HW Bush have way more money than Bill Gates, you are nuts.

that's my 0.02 BTC anyway.

[mobile4ever]

im right now trying to find live data on how many new coins / rewards are made a hour/day /week or whatever.

e.g time to reward found / active users = average user income.

The difficulty of the mathematical problem is automatically adjusted by the network, such that it targets a goal of solving an average of 6 blocks per hour. Every 2016 blocks (about two weeks), all Bitcoin clients compare the actual number created with this goal and modify the target by the percentage that it varied.

from:

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Blocks


Also:

The number of Bitcoins generated per block starts at 50 and is halved every 210,000 blocks (about four years).

I heard another "halving" will start in December.

[ElectricMucus]

Ever played any online game with ingame currency? There are no pricetags in dollars. Well at least used to in Diablo III that is possible too. The difference here is item prices in dollar follow their ingame gold value not verse visa.
That's the point I'm trying to make if bitcoin started as a trading tool for something valuable but not necessarily costly (for example game items or pictures) it would have evolved very differently. It's already too late for that since we have almost half of all bitcoins valued in dollar instead of something fundamental.

I wouldn't say it's too late to change that…

I just wrote that because I can't think of any.
I'm open to suggestions... and I mean it.

It does't matter, if it happened as you said (game items for bitcoin), then you can know the exchange rate between dollars and bitcoin by knowing the price in dollars of the game items. Dollars, and currency in general are used as the common denominator because it is a more widespread commodity than game items. That's the function of money, to serve as a means of comparison.

It does greatly matter....
In case of online games the ingame currency is more broadly used than dollars. The scenario I was proposing is one where bitcoin would be more broadly used than dollars for some niche market, at least within the community it is used for.

[Realpra]

Taxes would change for one.

Obscure taxes would be impossible to claim in a BTC world as it is too easy to hide.

Instead things easily controlled like property and personal permits/IDs would be taxed with flat taxes. If you can not pay those things will be claimed by the government.
The tax level would then be determined in such a way that government take-overs become rare enough that it does not cause public dissent.

Tall office buildings and stores would be taxed more than farmland.

Income and VAT taxes might disappear or be levied only on those who don't hide well enough.


Governments could still improve as such taxes would create a lot of political pressure on what the taxes are spent on - as opposed to inflation which is invisible and flies more under the public radar.
Massive bailouts and debt would simply become impossible.

On the other hand rich people may selfishly benefit from a flat tax rate and the ease with which they could hide wealth - this however may turn out fine if governments in turn are pressured into spending more on the poor and middle class to justify taxes, instead of rich men's subsidies.