here's just how screwed ASIC buyers are - READ THIS if you have a preorder

[DoomDumas]

I want to share the fast calculations i did a few days ago.

1) let's suppose to be around 10M$ in ASIC preorder
2) the $/GH is 21.6 ($/GH) (1300$ for 60GH)
3) so there will be around 460TH of hashing power *added* when the preorders delivery (10M$/21.6$/GH)
4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.3512 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day
6) the hashing power will go up around 20 times, that means that your profit per day per 1GH/s will go down of around 20 times, that's is 0.00878 BTC/GH/day
7) now let's suppose to have around 60GH/s of hashing power, that's 60 * 0.00878, 0.5BTC/day @50-100W
8 ) you need 120BTC to payback your 60GH/s mining hardware, that's 240 days, not taking into account the power usage.
9) after 120 days the asic market will be completely different, with people buying 1TH for 1000$

Yes, you are all screwed.

So your tought seems that it's better to hoard BTC instead of buying mining rig with them.. My tought is : Mine Mine Mine, more more more, because in 3, 4 or 5 years, i'll still be generating those precious BTC !

Let's see

[DoomDumas]

I have no GPU miners at the moment, no ASIC pre-orders, and no interest in an ASIC pre-order if I'm not guaranteed to get it earlier than most people, and actually I have almost no bitcoins either at the moment, as they were convereted to USD at an opportune time so that kinda kills your basis for the accusation now doesn't it?

No GPU, No Asic pre-order.. hmm, you sold your house to buy a container full of FPGA and that's why you're mad at those ASIC-Pre-Order folks ?

[Graet]

another lol thread
I'm really screwed, my graphics cards paid themselves off and left me enough coins to buy an ASIC, some tshirts hats and stickers + pay some of my electricty bills (inculding the whole $900 of the last one)

oh wait....maybe I'm not screwed after all???

oh and I don't expect to get ROI in 5minutes - 12 months or longer would be fine by me

over these bullshit threads based on really bad "guestimates" by self professed "experts"
have nice days

[The_Duke]

another lol thread

Haha, someone is so pissed off at being screwed that his typing turned into sesamestreet colors

_{No worries everyone, there's not going to be any asics. Everyone who still thinks there will be has never see an asic being developed.}

[Morblias]

_{No worries everyone, there's not going to be any asics. Everyone who still thinks there will be has never see an asic being developed.}

Wanna put your money where your mouth is?

[Graet]

another lol thread

Haha, someone is so pissed off at being screwed that his typing turned into sesamestreet colors

_{No worries everyone, there's not going to be any asics. Everyone who still thinks there will be has never see an asic being developed.}

you looked at the pretty colours but not the words eh?
oh well, you fail

[FLHippy]

Here's a possible way to think of it I guess. Consider gold right now. Valuable for the known reasons. Now imagine there's an island discovered in the middle of the pacific that consists of 2-3 times the quantity of gold currently in circulation in trivially mineable form, all you need is a boat to get there. What does this do to the cost of gold? To the cost of boats? Is it worth buying a boat?

Actually, it's a crap analogy since the rate of bitcoins mined is a constant and you'd have to make assumptions about people not being able to monopolize access. Maybe someone could knock it into shape?

Yea except that gold isn't held together by a massive drug trade.

Massive is completely an overestimate. There is only like 100 million in bTC... That is not enough cash to support a massive drug trade.

An impressive drug trade is a better term

But yes, all da coins are gonna be tainted with drug residue. Just like all the USD.

[deeplink]

Here's a possible way to think of it I guess. Consider gold right now. Valuable for the known reasons. Now imagine there's an island discovered in the middle of the pacific that consists of 2-3 times the quantity of gold currently in circulation in trivially mineable form, all you need is a boat to get there. What does this do to the cost of gold? To the cost of boats? Is it worth buying a boat?

Actually, it's a crap analogy since the rate of bitcoins mined is a constant and you'd have to make assumptions about people not being able to monopolize access. Maybe someone could knock it into shape?

Yea except that gold isn't held together by a massive drug trade.

Massive is completely an overestimate. There is only like 100 million in bTC... That is not enough cash to support a massive drug trade.

An impressive drug trade is a better term

But yes, all da coins are gonna be tainted with drug residue. Just like all the USD.

I agree that massive is an exaggeration, but your argument (Bitcoin market capilization) has nothing to do with it. Every Bitcoin can be used for a trade multiple times. For example, if I buy something from you for BTC, you can then buy something from me or someone else and on and on. So theoretically you can do lots of trades with only 1 BTC.

[bobitza]

I think we need more threads like this one. ASICs pre-orders folks could use some FUD so that when the ASICs are delivered, they make (more) money. Yes, I pre-ordered one. </sarcasm>

[Desolator]

Oh yeah, I post legit info and you all call me a troll.  What exactly am I wrong about?  Everyone's dumping thousands of dollars into this amazingly fast ASIC hardware and oops, there's still only 25BTC per block to go around.  Everyone is screwed.

In case you don't understand the logic, the GPUs I bought were like $130 and did 320MH/s ea.  So let's say for example all the GPU miners in the world cost $10 mil.  Now with ASICs are $1000+ for a good one, everyone's speeds go up so they all make the exact same income but now all the miners in the world will cost $100 mil.  Oops, everyone got scammed, lol.

But keep calling me a troll to pretend it's not true.

[Desolator]

Might as well get a shovel to try and clear up the mountain of bullshit speculation about me.  I started mining over a year ago with a pair of 5830's and made a lot of BTC.  I also sold some computer hardware for BTC.  I also bought some more hardware with BTC from cablesaurus and others.  I only sold enough BTC to cover the cost of the hardware then kept the rest of my BTC.

Then the price went from $11 to $3.50 but obviously I especially didn't sell them then, lol.  I did do some buying and selling on the exchange during ups and downs and made about another 10%.  Then when it FINALLY hit $5.20 after about a year of being around $4, I sold the rest and held the USD balance on the exchange to wait to rebuy after it drops again.  That never happened and it skyrocketed so that sucks, lol.  But I had to withdraw the cash to help fund my new computer repair and custom builds store so I re-bought BTC when it was at about $5, held it for another 2% increase, then had that spendbitcoins site convert it with paypal at just the right time for cheaper than MTGox's EFT fees.

Now I was going to get back into mining with ASICs but when I did the math, I foud out I'm the only one who realizes how grim the situation is given the ridiculous amount of pre-orders.  Nobody is going to make much on ASICs but the vendors.

[bobitza]

In case you don't understand the logic, the GPUs I bought were like $130 and did 320MH/s ea.  So let's say for example all the GPU miners in the world cost $10 mil.  Now with ASICs are $1000+ for a good one, everyone's speeds go up so they all make the exact same income but now all the miners in the world will cost $100 mil.  Oops, everyone got scammed, lol.

In case you didn't notice I'm somehow agreeing with you in the fact that people will get a shock when the difficulty will spike and they will have to redo their calculations. The ASICs won't be paying themselvse back in 2 weeks or 2 months ...

That's why we need more posts like this, so people don't pre-order more

However this is called "keeping up with the Joneses" or "staying in mining" or whatever you want to call it and not being scammed. Scammed is if BFL takes all the money and dissapears.

[Graet]

Oh yeah, I post legit info and you all call me a troll.  What exactly am I wrong about?  Everyone's dumping thousands of dollars into this amazingly fast ASIC hardware and oops, there's still only 25BTC per block to go around.  Everyone is screwed.

In case you don't understand the logic, the GPUs I bought were like $130 and did 320MH/s ea.  So let's say for example all the GPU miners in the world cost $10 mil.  Now with ASICs are $1000+ for a good one, everyone's speeds go up so they all make the exact same income but now all the miners in the world will cost $100 mil.  Oops, everyone got scammed, lol.

But keep calling me a troll to pretend it's not true.

once again, I spent Bitcoins that were profit from gpu mining to buy an asic + I am not expecting a ROI in a couple of months, as an adult I made this decision for myself - how did I get scammed?
or: everyone with a GPU scammed the CPU miners by your logic

I choose not to gamble on horse races or go to casinos , gambling on asic isn't being scammed, gambling is gambling
if you don't like to gamble that is fine - telling everyone they have been scammed using rough "guesstimates" because you don't like the look of something doesn't make it fact

not that it will stop the next person that is a legend in their own lunchbox starting the same thread over again again lol

pointless threads are pointless apart from a lol

[server]

I can't think of other hardware that pay's itself back within 1 year, so I'm fine with that idea.

And what's next, a smartphone or laptop with some integrated asic chips that pays itself back within 1 year... I would like that

[Desolator]

You two must be rich or something because if I had a decent amount of income, I'd definitely support the bitcoin system just for the sake of doing so and if it make me a little change, that's fine too.  But I'm freaking poor!  I'm quite possibly the only head IT manager at a decent sized company that works part time for a pathetic $14k or so a year and so the rest of the time I run a computer repair shop that I just opened recently.  So I'm lucky if I have money for living expenses every month and I'd say based on lots of forum reading that poor people like me outnumber ungodly rich people who can afford to buy ASICs for the fun of it at least 10:1.  So good for you guys, the rest of us need to know ASICs aren't going to make money.

Oh, and I plan to make money and support the system by selling some of my store's hardware for BTC on the forum soon and then hold it until significantly after the 25BTC split.  That keeps miner's money off the exchange and lets them spend BTC directly on stuff they need.

Also, newegg just brought me on as one of their invite-only certified egg expert hardware testers for their new program they're rolling out So they're gonna be shipping me a lot of hardware for free for the sole purpose of reviewing it.  Some of it shouldn't be sold before the release date but good luck finding me if it's with BTC, lol.

[Bitcoin Oz]

Might as well get a shovel to try and clear up the mountain of bullshit speculation about me.  I started mining over a year ago with a pair of 5830's and made a lot of BTC.  I also sold some computer hardware for BTC.  I also bought some more hardware with BTC from cablesaurus and others.  I only sold enough BTC to cover the cost of the hardware then kept the rest of my BTC.

Then the price went from $11 to $3.50 but obviously I especially didn't sell them then, lol.  I did do some buying and selling on the exchange during ups and downs and made about another 10%.  Then when it FINALLY hit $5.20 after about a year of being around $4, I sold the rest and held the USD balance on the exchange to wait to rebuy after it drops again.  That never happened and it skyrocketed so that sucks, lol.  But I had to withdraw the cash to help fund my new computer repair and custom builds store so I re-bought BTC when it was at about $5, held it for another 2% increase, then had that spendbitcoins site convert it with paypal at just the right time for cheaper than MTGox's EFT fees.

Now I was going to get back into mining with ASICs but when I did the math, I foud out I'm the only one who realizes how grim the situation is given the ridiculous amount of pre-orders.  Nobody is going to make much on ASICs but the vendors.

Unless some people get them earlier 

[Desolator]

Yeah, the vendors lol.  See, it's an all-encompassing circle of bullshit   The difficulty is going to spike through the roof like a week or two before ASICs ship and every vendor is going to blame each other and claim they're not mining.

P.S. look a few threads away from this one.  Someone tried to get a loan from the bank to buy ASICs.  I am not underestimating the overestimating going on here about ASIC income and how unwise people are being with it.

[server]

You two must be rich or something because if I had a decent amount of income, I'd definitely support the bitcoin system just for the sake of doing so and if it make me a little change, that's fine too.  But I'm freaking poor!  I'm quite possibly the only head IT manager at a decent sized company that works part time for a pathetic $14k or so a year and so the rest of the time I run a computer repair shop that I just opened recently.  So I'm lucky if I have money for living expenses every month and I'd say based on lots of forum reading that poor people like me outnumber ungodly rich people who can afford to buy ASICs for the fun of it at least 10:1.  So good for you guys, the rest of us need to know ASICs aren't going to make money.

Oh, and I plan to make money and support the system by selling some of my store's hardware for BTC on the forum soon and then hold it until significantly after the 25BTC split.  That keeps miner's money off the exchange and lets them spend BTC directly on stuff they need.

Also, newegg just brought me on as one of their invite-only certified egg expert hardware testers for their new program they're rolling out So they're gonna be shipping me a lot of hardware for free for the sole purpose of reviewing it.  Some of it shouldn't be sold before the release date but good luck finding me if it's with BTC, lol.

Ok, I understand you need to eat but try to keep your karma balanced as well

Instead of trolling you should be thankfull to the fpga/asic buyers spending this much money on expensive hardware because this makes it affordable for everyone in the future.

[jl2012]

You just include the preorder units in your calculation. However, these companies will certainly manufacture extra units for themselves to mine, since the marginal manufacturing cost for ASIC is very low. The difficulty will go up to 1000TH/s or 1PH/s easily

[crazyates]

I started mining about a year ago as well, but I havn't put any cash into my bitcoin mining hardware in about 8 months. I purchase more hardware with the Bitcoins I've earned, not selling them on the market. It can be done, but it sounds like you tried to play the market, and lost.

And no, I"m not uber rich. I also work in IT at a part time job, so it sucks. I'm not gonna be able to drop 60k on 3TH/s of hardware, but what's your point?