here's just how screwed ASIC buyers are - READ THIS if you have a preorder

[crazyates]

You just include the preorder units in your calculation. However, these companies will certainly manufacture extra units for themselves to mine, since the marginal manufacturing cost for ASIC is very low. The difficulty will go up to 1000TH/s or 1PH/s easily

First, I don't think manufacturers will be mining, or at least at a significant level.

Second, you do realize that 1000TH/s and 1PH/s are the same thing?

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[cedivad]

You just include the preorder units in your calculation. However, these companies will certainly manufacture extra units for themselves to mine, since the marginal manufacturing cost for ASIC is very low. The difficulty will go up to 1000TH/s or 1PH/s easily

Didn't tough about this. Another reason to avoid a preorder, even if i'm constantly tempted.

First, I don't think manufacturers will be mining, or at least at a significant level.

Why shouldn't they? They would only harm the future earning, not their current ones (not the preorders).

[puck2]

The centralizing nature of pools is why I am interested in p2pool (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/P2Pool) though I have still a lot to learn regarding its functionality.

[bobitza]

First, I don't think manufacturers will be mining, or at least at a significant level.

Why shouldn't they? They would only harm the future earning, not their current ones (not the preorders).

Because they're in the business of manufacturing devices, designing new ones, etc. Not in the business of Bitcoin mining.

There is however one manufacturer that is in both businesses: ASICMINER. All ASICs produced by them will be used for their own "mining company".

[repentance]

You just include the preorder units in your calculation. However, these companies will certainly manufacture extra units for themselves to mine, since the marginal manufacturing cost for ASIC is very low. The difficulty will go up to 1000TH/s or 1PH/s easily

First, I don't think manufacturers will be mining, or at least at a significant level.

Maybe not as their core business, but Inaba happens to run a mining pool.

[Frequency]

Hey guys i am looking for some pictures of these asic devices so that i can order some 10pcs SC or Avalon to make a super rig, does anyone know were i can find some pics and i am also intrested in there durability and were can i get some spare parts if needed..

i do know: they use almost no electricity and they make me rich in no time they also seem to be standalone and easy too configure even for a noob like me... wooow this exacltly what i was looking i am going to pre order me 10pcs ..or could i better buy me some avalon s from China it seems they have real good quality stuff over there real good self developed almost non counterfit economie they even just bought a aircraftcarrier even without aircrafts and staff but how cares ...i want it i chang it..give me the asic info fast please ....




              

[Desolator]

The jalapeno mathematically is likely to use 6 watts minus a tiny hair of that in cooling overhead compared to the single.  But, the avalon rigs and such are a different story.  The top level rig at BFL is going to take over 1000 watts to operate so I would think its competition will be a still significant fraction of that.  Even 300W for example is likely to land around $25 a month so be careful with ignoring that expense.

[crazyates]

The jalapeno mathematically is likely to use 6 watts minus a tiny hair of that in cooling overhead compared to the single.  But, the avalon rigs and such are a different story.  The top level rig at BFL is going to take over 1000 watts to operate so I would think its competition will be a still significant fraction of that.  Even 300W for example is likely to land around $25 a month so be careful with ignoring that expense.

Stop pulling numbers out of your ass. You did it in your first post, and you're doing it here. BFL has said their Jalapeno will use 4.5W, so why are you just adding on an additional 33% power?

Also, the top level BFL MR will use 1000W, yes, but will be ~16x faster than the Avalon. I don't see what point you're trying to make.

[Desolator]

Seriously?  They said the single will run at approx the same wattage as their FPGA single which is around 80W.  The Jalapeno is 7.5% the speed so logically, since it's virtually the same chip and same structure, it will take 6 watts.  It's actually a trick question though because they claim it will run off of USB power and that will not work so it actually won't run on any watts, as it will not run, lol.

USB power ratings are different from system to system, is absolute crap on laptops, it runs over low gauge wires, it's a non-separate circuit so if voltage dips on the motherboard, it dips on the USB ports, running that many milliamps through a USB connection perpetually will fry it, most boards send audio and other electronic feedback down the USB power line, and their 1st gen experimental chips will not tolerate the level of voltage variance there will be.

[crazyates]

Seriously?  They said the single will run at approx the same wattage as their FPGA single which is around 80W.  The Jalapeno is 7.5% the speed so logically, since it's virtually the same chip and same structure, it will take 6 watts.  It's actually a trick question though because they claim it will run off of USB power and that will not work so it actually won't run on any watts, as it will not run, lol.

USB power ratings are different from system to system, is absolute crap on laptops, it runs over low gauge wires, it's a non-separate circuit so if voltage dips on the motherboard, it dips on the USB ports, running that many milliamps through a USB connection perpetually will fry it, most boards send audio and other electronic feedback down the USB power line, and their 1st gen experimental chips will not tolerate the level of voltage variance there will be.

If you honestly didn't know, then I apologize. But, BFL has release power specs for them, and the Jalapeno is said to use 4.5W. Their portal (with the announcment) is down, but check it out here: http://codinginmysleep.com/butterfly-labs-releases-more-data/

[Desolator]

If there's one thing BFL is famous for, it's exaggerating hardware specs.  I think they were off by 400% on their FPGA's power rating I do think that given the release date vs current date, they did just get in the actual prototype units to test with.  But still, a precise 1:1 ratio of GH/s to watts is completely ridiculous.  If you slapped the biggest rig on a watt meter, it'd probably draw like 1653 or something, not 1500 precisely on the dot.  The probability is basically impossible so I do think it's just an abitrary alteration to their purely theoretical speed and power ratings.

[SgtSpike]

I want to share the fast calculations i did a few days ago.

1) let's suppose to be around 10M$ in ASIC preorder
2) the $/GH is 21.6 ($/GH) (1300$ for 60GH)
3) so there will be around 460TH of hashing power *added* when the preorders delivery (10M$/21.6$/GH)
4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.3512 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day
6) the hashing power will go up around 20 times, that means that your profit per day per 1GH/s will go down of around 20 times, that's is 0.00878 BTC/GH/day
7) now let's suppose to have around 60GH/s of hashing power, that's 60 * 0.00878, 0.5BTC/day @50-100W
8 ) you need 120BTC to payback your 60GH/s mining hardware, that's 240 days, not taking into account the power usage.
9) after 120 days the asic market will be completely different, with people buying 1TH for 1000$

Yes, you are all screwed.

You just pulled that 10m$ pre order out of your butt....

There is no way that there are that many pre orders for ASIC.

There are just not that many people in the community to invest that kind of money in mining equipment.

Wasn't that an almost accepted data of how much BFL got on pre orders?

No - it is pure speculation.

I believe when BFL opened up their pre-orders on 6/23, Bit-pay set a new record for amount processed, and I think it was somewhere just over 1million USD in a 24 hour period. Considering that the waitlist only shows the first day going up by about 500 orders or so, and we're coming up on 9000 order numbers, it's quite possible to be around 10 million in sales.

It was only $250,000.

BitPay received considerable media attention after their payment processing service handled a total of over $250,000 worth of transactions in a single day after pre-orders for Butterfly’s new machines opened up for sale.

http://bitcoinmagazine.net/bitpay-exceeds-1000-merchants-accepting-bitcoin/

I am fairly certain $10M is a high estimate, by a fairly large amount, but I could be wrong.  My point was though, there is no "accepted" number, and certainly, $10M is a guess just as any other number would be.

If there's one thing BFL is famous for, it's exaggerating hardware specs.  I think they were off by 400% on their FPGA's power rating I do think that given the release date vs current date, they did just get in the actual prototype units to test with.  But still, a precise 1:1 ratio of GH/s to watts is completely ridiculous.  If you slapped the biggest rig on a watt meter, it'd probably draw like 1653 or something, not 1500 precisely on the dot.  The probability is basically impossible so I do think it's just an abitrary alteration to their purely theoretical speed and power ratings.

Let me get this straight.

- A company releases specs.
- You don't believe them, so you make stuff up and state it as fact?

Am I missing something here?  This logic borders on insanity.

[Unacceptable]

If there's one thing BFL is famous for, it's exaggerating hardware specs.  I think they were off by 400% on their FPGA's power rating I do think that given the release date vs current date, they did just get in the actual prototype units to test with.  But still, a precise 1:1 ratio of GH/s to watts is completely ridiculous.  If you slapped the biggest rig on a watt meter, it'd probably draw like 1653 or something, not 1500 precisely on the dot.  The probability is basically impossible so I do think it's just an abitrary alteration to their purely theoretical speed and power ratings.

Uh huh,damn this guy is good  

You ever think about running for President  

I can't wait for my BFL unit to get here to shut him up,but he'll keep going & going & going & going & going.................................

[Graet]

Let me get this straight.

- A company releases specs.
- You don't believe them, so you make stuff up and state it as fact?

Am I missing something here?  This logic borders on insanity.

+1

making up stuff gets best response on these forums - talk sense and hardly anyone replies
My 7yo daughter is quite an attention seeker too

[Xfinity]

making up stuff gets best response on these forums - talk sense and hardly anyone replies
My 7yo daughter is quite an attention seeker too

+1

I am getting tired of all false speculation...

[Frequency]

making up stuff gets best response on these forums - talk sense and hardly anyone replies
My 7yo daughter is quite an attention seeker too

+1

I am getting tired of all false speculation...

well maybe asic are false speculations...i am getting tired also havend found ANY PROOF OF ASIC DEVICES ARE OUT THERE AT ALL ...

It would indeed be nice if everybody just shuts up untill the first asic is delivered .....mmm could be silent for ever....or not.. its freaking OKTOBER i thought they promised to deliver in this month ..... i will shut up untill december the 7e..i m looking forward to these asic....also but nobody received an delivery date sofar...or am i completly wrong about this... my money is burning to buy asic for real....IF 

[Desolator]

Hey all the dumbasses above me, how am I wrong here?  You just keep posting immature bullshit and saying I'm wrong but seeing as how I'm not, I'm curious, how do you think I'm wrong?  Are you just assholes or are you all truly in denial about ASICs?  You must have A LOT of pre-orders to be that stuck in pretend land.

I hear BFL claimed their FPGAs would run on like 20W and it turned out they ran on 80W and the company's excuse was that they misunderstood the manufacturer's specs or something like that.  So there's your actual precedent that actually happen with BFL.  HELLO?!

So you disagree with me and think when they come out, your kill-a-watt meter will say 1500W on the rig with zero variance whatesoever.  You sincerely believe that and say I'm wrong and that it will be exactly 1500?  Okay, keep thinking that.  Good luck with that.  By the way, in case you missed the last paragraph, BFL has epically screwed up their power ratings on their last hardware release!

Oh and their CEO was convicted of fraud.  If that's not a little bit of a red flag, you're too stupid to be in the bitcoin community.  Just assume everyone is a scammer as a starting point and then get slightly more suspicious when you find out they are in fact a convicted scammer.

So in summary of your opinion, ASICS will make a ton of money, nobody in the community ever runs a scam ever, BFL is famous for exact specifications, and ummm I think leprochauns exist was in there too.  Alrighty then.

[The_Duke]

Let me get this straight.

- A company releases specs.
- You don't believe them, so you make stuff up and state it as fact?

Am I missing something here?  This logic borders on insanity.

+1

making up stuff gets best response on these forums - talk sense and hardly anyone replies
My 7yo daughter is quite an attention seeker too

Perhaps you can give her your forum account? Chances are quite big she'll come across more mature than you.

[SgtSpike]

Hey all the dumbasses above me, how am I wrong here?  You just keep posting immature bullshit and saying I'm wrong but seeing as how I'm not, I'm curious, how do you think I'm wrong?  Are you just assholes or are you all truly in denial about ASICs?  You must have A LOT of pre-orders to be that stuck in pretend land.

I hear BFL claimed their FPGAs would run on like 20W and it turned out they ran on 80W and the company's excuse was that they misunderstood the manufacturer's specs or something like that.  So there's your actual precedent that actually happen with BFL.  HELLO?!

So you disagree with me and think when they come out, your kill-a-watt meter will say 1500W on the rig with zero variance whatesoever.  You sincerely believe that and say I'm wrong and that it will be exactly 1500?  Okay, keep thinking that.  Good luck with that.  By the way, in case you missed the last paragraph, BFL has epically screwed up their power ratings on their last hardware release!

Oh and their CEO was convicted of fraud.  If that's not a little bit of a red flag, you're too stupid to be in the bitcoin community.  Just assume everyone is a scammer as a starting point and then get slightly more suspicious when you find out they are in fact a convicted scammer.

So in summary of your opinion, ASICS will make a ton of money, nobody in the community ever runs a scam ever, BFL is famous for exact specifications, and ummm I think leprochauns exist was in there too.  Alrighty then.

I never said BFL's actual power usage would be right on the money.  I said it was ridiculous to add a completely arbitrary amount of power usage to their released specs, then claim it was true and base your ROI calculations on it.

Also, you're on ignore now, don't expect me to respond to any of your other absurd allegations.  I'll unignore you when I pay off my ASIC, just to rub it in your face a bit.

[Desolator]

Hmmm and when they ship and are way off from the listed specs and don't make any money, I'll rub it in your face.  Btw I <3 internet arguments!