here's just how screwed ASIC buyers are - READ THIS if you have a preorder

[Anvi]

I hope people will get their moneys worth. Once it's not worth mining anymore the ASICs will be worthless and useless as well.
GPU mining weren't as risky. You could use them for other purposes or resell for a fair price.

[Sitarow]

I hope people will get their moneys worth. Once it's not worth mining anymore the ASICs will be worthless and useless as well.
GPU mining weren't as risky. You could use them for other purposes or resell for a fair price.

If we don't find another use for the GPU's LTC and such. Once those GPU"s get on the market, expect the price of the GPU's to drop.

[Frequency]

I hope people will get their moneys worth. Once it's not worth mining anymore the ASICs will be worthless and useless as well.
GPU mining weren't as risky. You could use them for other purposes or resell for a fair price.

If we don't find another use for the GPU's LTC and such. Once those GPU"s get on the market, expect the price of the GPU's to drop.

still an ROI of 100% (if mined enough and bought 2ndhand your self)..gpu will sell to gamers, stockbrokers (need multi screen setups).. one highend set of 5970,s or 6990,s are still very very wanted even if dumped in to the market... asic is still a big IF...and useless after mining indeed. 

(also give me one example of an highend custom made product, produced from scratch produced massevely that got deliverd in two months or so because thats whats going on with ASIC.) 

[yrtrnc]

Asic mining is very risky indeed, but payoff could be worth it if the price of BTC goes up. Its a risk, you may lose you may gain. Thats the way I see it.

[scrybe]

If you go through the order process and never fwd the bitcoins or payment the order number still goes up by 1.

Ohhhh, they should clean that up, lol.

I put my best scientific minds on this and they came up with a simpler calculation that's guaranteed accurate!  There's still 50 BTC (well 25 soon) to go around every 10 minutes regardless of total TH/s.  That's how the protocol works.  So take whatever your hardware's capabilities are and divide it by the total TH/s of the system and multiply that by 25BTC and you'll get how many BTC you'll earn per 10 minutes

There is this thing called a database that comes into play here. If you want to run a store you will have a database that keeps track of every customer, product, service, shipping rates, etc. Most importantly this database tracks ORDERS, and every order needs to be tracked. Some sites do this for every item added to a cart or (like BFL) every time someone hits "checkout" and starts the order payment and confirmation process.

The order number is actually tied to each attempted order so that if there is a problem, it can be traced back. If your CC fails to work, or your BTC took too long to transit, you as the customer are gong to want to be able to call/email them and complete the order once whatever is wrong is fixed. Some companies even will actively mine this information about discarded orders. To see this you can setup a business card order for 20,000 cards on a well known website and then cancel it to get a 60% off coupon in your email the next day.

In the case of BFL there have been confirmed cases where folks have abandoned carts, the real number of orders is at least 1/2 that, maybe as low as 1/5.

[scrybe]

another lol thread
I'm really screwed, my graphics cards paid themselves off and left me enough coins to buy an ASIC, some tshirts hats and stickers + pay some of my electricty bills (inculding the whole $900 of the last one)

oh wait....maybe I'm not screwed after all???

oh and I don't expect to get ROI in 5minutes - 12 months or longer would be fine by me

over these bullshit threads based on really bad "guestimates" by self professed "experts"
have nice days

+1

[Desolator]

I hope people will get their moneys worth. Once it's not worth mining anymore the ASICs will be worthless and useless as well.
GPU mining weren't as risky. You could use them for other purposes or resell for a fair price.

If we don't find another use for the GPU's LTC and such. Once those GPU"s get on the market, expect the price of the GPU's to drop.

I believe someone did the math a long time ago and determine bitcoin mining is still like 1% or less of AMD's GPU market so it might not drop as low as you think.

[scrybe]

I hope people will get their moneys worth. Once it's not worth mining anymore the ASICs will be worthless and useless as well.
GPU mining weren't as risky. You could use them for other purposes or resell for a fair price.

If we don't find another use for the GPU's LTC and such. Once those GPU"s get on the market, expect the price of the GPU's to drop.

I believe someone did the math a long time ago and determine bitcoin mining is still like 1% or less of AMD's GPU market so it might not drop as low as you think.

I would think that the 5850 would not be a super desirable gaming card anymore, right? This means that instead of having a resale market based on BTC mining, it would have to compete with newer, cheaper, cooler cards in the gamer resale market.

I agree that the retail market is unlikely to really notice, unless you are a vendor focused on the BTC market. (although that ship sailed a while ago and I doubt that many think that GPU is going to have a revival or anything.)

[crazyates]

I would think that the 5850 would not be a super desirable gaming card anymore, right? This means that instead of having a resale market based on BTC mining, it would have to compete with newer, cheaper, cooler cards in the gamer resale market.

I agree that the retail market is unlikely to really notice, unless you are a vendor focused on the BTC market. (although that ship sailed a while ago and I doubt that many think that GPU is going to have a revival or anything.)

Actually the 5850 is still better than the 7770, or about comparable to any other low-to-mid range card.

[scrybe]

I would think that the 5850 would not be a super desirable gaming card anymore, right? This means that instead of having a resale market based on BTC mining, it would have to compete with newer, cheaper, cooler cards in the gamer resale market.

I agree that the retail market is unlikely to really notice, unless you are a vendor focused on the BTC market. (although that ship sailed a while ago and I doubt that many think that GPU is going to have a revival or anything.)

Actually the 5850 is still better than the 7770, or about comparable to any other low-to-mid range card.

Good to know, thanks.

Still a bit of a beast for the average user, but it holds at least >$100 value for now.

[Desolator]

Who would ever use an AMD card for gaming? lol.  The severe recurring driver problems that seem to only ever affect brand new games and complete crappiness of their driver design overall means I'm staying far, far away!  Nvidia is the only way to go for serious gaming.  Also a piece of crap GT440 with CUDA has been tested and proven to be 8x faster at rendering in Premiere than dual 10-core hyperthreaded Xeons on a server board.  Compared to an AMD card with OpenCL, it'd probably be faster to hit the render button, run to the store, buy a 440, install it, reload the entire project, and then hit go again.  The 440 would still finish first

[willphase]

I'm expecting a 20-30x difficulty rating, no meaningful increase in BTC/USD price, a halving of the block reward, and a ROI of around 6-8 months... Agree that people expecting to get all their $$$ back in a week are crazy but over the long term the BFL power consumption means it will continue to be paying for itself well into 2013.

Will

[Desolator]

I hate to break it to you but that doesn't add up.  I myself am expecting a 16x difficulty rating but that was before I found out just how many BFL pre-orders were fake. I agree with a lack of increase in BTC/USD price and obviously the halving of the block reward but even my estimate puts the ROI at 9+ months, and that only adapted for 2x the original number of preorders in additional orders after they release the products.  a 20-30x difficult would mean closer to 1.5 year for a 100% ROI.

[cedivad]

Who would ever use an AMD card for gaming? lol.

Lol, you must be joking.
Best performance per price, best linux support. It even works under Xen pci passtrught!

[Korbman]

I'm expecting a 20-30x difficulty rating, no meaningful increase in BTC/USD price, a halving of the block reward, and a ROI of around 6-8 months... Agree that people expecting to get all their $$$ back in a week are crazy but over the long term the BFL power consumption means it will continue to be paying for itself well into 2013.

Will

Not going to happen.

There's one key aspect everyone misses when they predict their massive difficulty increases...and that's profitability. With a Jalapeno at 4.5GH/s, a 20x difficulty increase with NO increase in BTC/USD price would mean you're making 1.1 BTC per month. That's not even worth anyone's time for a $160 investment as it would take over 12 months to equal out (how you managed to calculate out 6 months I have no idea). And if you still think things will be the same in 12 months, chances are you're quite mistaken (look how far we've come as is...).

To compensate, either the value of BTC would need to drastically increase or the cost of ASIC devices would need to decrease.


EDIT: Missed this as I posted:

I hate to break it to you but that doesn't add up.  I myself am expecting a 16x difficulty rating but that was before I found out just how many BFL pre-orders were fake. I agree with a lack of increase in BTC/USD price and obviously the halving of the block reward but even my estimate puts the ROI at 9+ months, and that only adapted for 2x the original number of preorders in additional orders after they release the products.  a 20-30x difficult would mean closer to 1.5 year for a 100% ROI.

Much more likely. Inaba already noted well under 10x for BFL alone, so I can't imagine getting near 20x for quite some time even with all the other ASIC companies' preorders added in.

[DutchBrat]

And we all know that the cost of the ASIC devices will plummet as the marginal cost of producing the chips after the initial investment is close to zero (or very low)

[Desolator]

The money vs performance ratio is better because their drivers suck and nobody would buy their products if they were even with Nvidia.  Did you ever notice if you install their driver on XP, it will load then reboot then tell you it relies on the .NET 2.0 framework and can't load anything in the driver's GUI without it?  Why would they write such big name software from such a wealthy company in freaking .NET?!  I'm a .NET programmer and I even think that was a stupid choice.

Then you've got crashes, crashes, and more crashes in any game that's been newly released followed by the game manufacturers advising you to turn off XXXX if you have an AMD card.  Nvidia doesn't seem to ever have that problem.  Then you've got shadows and lighting drawing incorrectly in 1 game and when they fix it, they break 5 other games.

I also couldn't possibly care any less about Linux support

[luffy]

i don't consider an investment of 100-200 btc as high risk, come on guys!
high risk is if ASICs manufactures never deliver :p
 But since we have faith in BTC and  its value continue to rise then this investment will pay off even after 6-12 months.
I wonder though what device/technology will be more "profitable" than ASICs in the future!

[Desolator]

And we all know that the cost of the ASIC devices will plummet as the marginal cost of producing the chips after the initial investment is close to zero (or very low)

Everyone seems to be throwing that around but I don't see it happening.  The 3 manufacturers almost have a monopoly.  BFL will release first in all likelihood and they have a monopoly on "budget" hardware that's a bit slower but more affordable.  bASIC will have a monopoly on larger rigs that are actually built well.  All the pics I've seen suggest BFL uses REALLY sketchy parts like cheap fans and stuff.  And Avalon is releasing their products so unbelievably late, they're not even in the picture.

So that means they can all charge whatever they want.  Here's my theory.  Once a company has sold XX amount of mining hardware up front, jack up the price.  That's because for every ASIC miner you sell, you devalue your product.  The less people mining, the more you can charge because people's ROI calculations will result in a smaller time period.  Let's say it takes $50 to build a Jalapeno.  If the price is $300, less people will buy it but they'll be willing to pay more seeing as how less people are buying them.  Then it's just a cost of manufacturing thing.

But since we have faith in BTC and  its value continue to rise then this investment will pay off even after 6-12 months.
I wonder though what device/technology will be more "profitable" than ASICs in the future!

You do know the more "faith" people have in bitcoins, the more ASICs will sell and the less money you'll make, right?   oh and since ASICs are basically the end of the technological ability of modern computers in relation to bitcoins since it's like a mini-computer designed to run mining calculations, it'd have to be quantum computers or something.  That or just faster ASICs with smaller nm transistors or whatever that can run at faster speeds but lower heat.

[willphase]

There's one key aspect everyone misses when they predict their massive difficulty increases...and that's profitability. With a Jalapeno at 4.5GH/s, a 20x difficulty increase with NO increase in BTC/USD price would mean you're making 1.1 BTC per month. That's not even worth anyone's time for a $160 investment as it would take over 12 months to equal out (how you managed to calculate out 6 months I have no idea). And if you still think things will be the same in 12 months, chances are you're quite mistaken (look how far we've come as is...).

totally agree that everyone needs to make up their own mind based on their own risk profile for an investment.  I've made my calculations (and just redid them!) based on the information I have, and view my investment in mining hardware as a high risk investment that I expect to pay off in 6-8 months, but if it doesn't (and takes a year?) then that's part and parcel of a high risk investment.

I advise anyone making investments in ASIC mining to do their own calculations and bear in mind exactly what Korbman/Desolator are saying in particular that things probably won't be the same in 12 months

Will