Price/Market Movement Discussion ONLY

[marcotheminer]

Thought I'd make this thread for those who want to discuss the market/price movements rather than XT news, random trolling or useless talk.

Current price movement (walls, market movement) discussion ONLY please

Self moderated for the reasons above.

[marcotheminer]

Reserved

Let's keep this thread orderly

[mudiko]

Indicators are showing that bitcoin will fall before 2016. But it can get hyped with some new and make indicators wrong

[natewelt]

I'd like to see this thread stay alive. Wall observer thread is now garbage.

Here's a chart to try and get things going. We've been trading in an obvious range since the crash. I am bullish bc of the fact that we have been trading towards the top of the range so my chart leads to me believe we will go back to the breakdown point around 250 shortly.

[shmadz]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
hmmm, looks much like a microcosm of my longer term "sideways all summer" movement 
acutally... wasn't really even close; as depicted below:



I think we are in for a price discovery of the bottom in the next 6-12 months. Price will tend towards the mining cost (which I calculate at roughly 150 per coin at the moment) plus the monetary (or speculatory) premium for holding this asset.


p.s. I expect the price to be within the range from approximately 220 to 300 for the next months, perhaps a year or more, but at least until the end of summer.

p.p.s. just remember it could always be worse. You could have been invested in the DOW! (ouch!)  sorry, bitcoin has taken far bigger tumbles, but it's not every day the DOW drops by 500+ points...

[noobtrader]

I think we are in for a price discovery of the bottom in the next 6-12 months. Price will tend towards the mining cost (which I calculate at roughly 150 per coin at the moment) plus the monetary (or speculatory) premium for holding this asset.


p.s. I expect the price to be within the range from approximately 220 to 300 for the next months, perhaps a year or more, but at least until the end of summer.

p.p.s. just remember it could always be worse. You could have been invested in the DOW! (ouch!)  sorry, bitcoin has taken far bigger tumbles, but it's not every day the DOW drops by 500+ points...

i think mining cost include the miner-roi would be more than 150 usd, 200-230  usd is more likely. so todays price  233 is just about right

[shmadz]

i think mining cost include the miner-roi would be more than 150 usd, 200-230  usd is more likely. so todays price  233 is just about right

your numbers seem reasonable. I was not accounting for the cost of hardware. I assume the hardware has paid itself off by now, which is not necessarily true.

//though you do not account for the monetary premium (or perhaps you deem the monetary value to be 0)

[natewelt]

Here's another chart that shows the last 3 times that BTC rose above it's 10 day moving average it popped higher. Therefore, we NEED to get above the 10 DMA in order to gain some bullish momentum back and get the FOMO going.  

[noobtrader]

i think mining cost include the miner-roi would be more than 150 usd, 200-230  usd is more likely. so todays price  233 is just about right

your numbers seem reasonable. I was not accounting for the cost of hardware. I assume the hardware has paid itself off by now, which is not necessarily true.

//though you do not account for the monetary premium (or perhaps you deem the monetary value to be 0)

well, we dont add a lot of thing like maintenance cost and placement cost etc. if we do that we will find that todays price is very cheap.

[bassclef]

I'm cautiously bullish only because the Bears have gone home. Their side of the auction room is a bit messy with kicked chairs, spilled drinks and a couple of passed out hookers, but now it is mostly empty and their potential selling power is out of the market. The only people left selling are the laggards wanting to cash out over the XT drama and retail traders shorting into what might be an epic bear trap. (leave it to them to build up shorts at every bottom, every time)

The market is devoid of selling--just look at the price action natewelt posted. When it hugs the top resistance like that without supply to break it down, eventually it will find its way through.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I'm cautiously bullish only because the Bears have gone home. Their side of the auction room is a bit messy with kicked chairs, spilled drinks and a couple of passed out hookers, but now it is mostly empty and their potential selling power is out of the market. The only people left selling are the laggards wanting to cash out over the XT drama and retail traders shorting into what might be an epic bear trap. (leave it to them to build up shorts at every bottom, every time)

The market is devoid of selling--just look at the price action natewelt posted. When it hugs the top resistance like that without supply to break it down, eventually it will find its way through.

There isn't exactly a lot of buying either

[Monopoly]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
hmmm, looks much like a microcosm of my longer term "sideways all summer" movement 
acutally... wasn't really even close; as depicted below:



I think we are in for a price discovery of the bottom in the next 6-12 months. Price will tend towards the mining cost (which I calculate at roughly 150 per coin at the moment) plus the monetary (or speculatory) premium for holding this asset.


p.s. I expect the price to be within the range from approximately 220 to 300 for the next months, perhaps a year or more, but at least until the end of summer.

p.p.s. just remember it could always be worse. You could have been invested in the DOW! (ouch!)  sorry, bitcoin has taken far bigger tumbles, but it's not every day the DOW drops by 500+ points...

I thoroughly believe for Bitcoin 15 M chart candle never work ..... just try on daily or 4H chart and it says bitcoin growing up to 250-270 again like as you said .....
......... if the support will break we will see price $170

[bassclef]

There isn't exactly a lot of buying either

That's true. Maybe we get a retest or pullback at in a day or two. Volume will be low so I wouldn't expect it to break. Everyone who was going to sell already did--this goes back to January--causing a supply shortage where one sees characteristic higher lows/higher highs and declining volume as supply absorption plays out over many months.

At some point it's simply cheaper to profit from pumping rather than risking a dump where nobody follows you down. One must look which side has the most pull and profit potential left. If I was a whale, that big short was a test. Breaking lower support on high volume would tell me if there was any meaningful supply left down there. But it held, and on lower volume.

[marcotheminer]

We briefly broke below the 230 support recently.

[nicked]

[marcotheminer]

So far, the wall on Bitfinex at 220 is holding.

[marcotheminer]

Little pump on CNY/BTC, down to a slight correction now.

[marcotheminer]

1450 breached again on CNY/BTC.

[natewelt]

We need to get to 240 or things might get even uglier here soon.

[Wary]

I expect the price to be within the range from approximately 220 to 300 for the next months, perhaps a year or more, but at least until the end of summer.

To say that the price will stay in the range from 8 days (time till the end of summer) to several years is to say nothing