Diff thread aug 23rd to sept 5th. Picks are closed.

[HerbPean]

bitcoinwisdom diff is back !


Bitcoin Difficulty:   54,256,630,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   56,535,671,759 (+4.20%)
Adjust time:   After 1189 Blocks, About 8.0 days
Hashrate(?):   397,912,136 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.8 minutes

[1714897342]

1714897342

[wlefever]

bitcoinwisdom diff is back !


Bitcoin Difficulty:   54,256,630,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   56,535,671,759 (+4.20%)
Adjust time:   After 1189 Blocks, About 8.0 days
Hashrate(?):   397,912,136 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.8 minutes

It's about time!  That was always my quick check go to site, and being stuck at +.21% was getting quite annoying lol. 

Lots can happen in the next 8 days, but I don't think it going negative is likely. 

[jmumich]

I'm afraid our day's of 2 percent jumps might be over for a bit.

Probably, but I'd be surprised if the jumps are significantly higher. If diff. increases by 3% the rest of the year, that would be an increase of roughly 90PH between now and 2016.

By comparison, the network hashrate is about 100 PH higher since the start of the year (average diff. jump of under 2%), which is when Bitmain began sales of the S5. And a good chunk of that came from Bitfury and other manufacturers.

The slow growth this year also means that a significant amount of the network hashrate is likely comprised of hardware that will be at least 2 generations behind (S3 and earlier). Assuming a stable exchange rate, a significant amount of S3-gen. hardware will be forced offline if difficulty increases too fast, just as hardware >1 w/gh went offline over the past 8-10 months or so. This too will be a limiting factor on growth, and S3-gen. hardware is likely still a large chunk of the hashrate out there.

What's more likely is instability in difficulty going forward - I wouldn't be surprised to see, for example, an increase of close to 10% followed by a decrease of 6-7%. (edit: actually, I'd be a little surprised - a 10% increase means 40 PH went online in a 2 week period, allocating 32 PH of that to Bitmain (leaving the 2% 'normal' growth), that would mean 16,000 hypothetical 2TH S7's shipped in a single difficulty period, variance aside).

The exchange rate is the most important variable with respect to difficulty right now, I think, and all this assumes a constant exchange rate.

[notlist3d]

bitcoinwisdom diff is back !


Bitcoin Difficulty:   54,256,630,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   56,535,671,759 (+4.20%)
Adjust time:   After 1189 Blocks, About 8.0 days
Hashrate(?):   397,912,136 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.8 minutes

It's about time!  That was always my quick check go to site, and being stuck at +.21% was getting quite annoying lol. 

Lots can happen in the next 8 days, but I don't think it going negative is likely. 

I am happy to see it back.   I don't think this week will be one of our better one as far as difficulty.

Someone is doing something I think as far as making gear.  Could be anything from a S5 + batch, S7 batch, unknown miner.  Or even people pulling miners out as summer is close to over.  I expect winter miners to give us a bump at some point.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

8 - 22 - 2015    162     +18
8-  23 - 2015    138     -   6         so + 12 blocks    for sat and sun  
8-  24 - 2015    156     + 12         + 24 blocks for  3 days  
8-  25 - 2015    133     -  11          + 13 blocks for 4 days.
8-  26 - 2015    160     + 16          +29  
8-  27 - 2015    135      - 9            +20


we have 890 made  870 is norm  so we are now at about  (+2.29%)

this number below is high as it does not reflect the 135 block day today

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+4.05%)

[alh]

Glad that bitcoinwisdom is back!!!

Bitcoin Difficulty:    54,256,630,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    56,367,970,159 (+3.89%)
Adjust time:    After 1106 Blocks, About 7.4 days
Hashrate(?):    391,523,788 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.9 minutes
   
Updated:    1:30 (4.0 minutes ago)

BTC Price: $224

While we can hope for some negatives in the future, we should plan on increases for the rest of the year (IMHO).

[notlist3d]

Glad that bitcoinwisdom is back!!!

Bitcoin Difficulty:    54,256,630,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    56,367,970,159 (+3.89%)
Adjust time:    After 1106 Blocks, About 7.4 days
Hashrate(?):    391,523,788 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.9 minutes
   
Updated:    1:30 (4.0 minutes ago)

BTC Price: $224

While we can hope for some negatives in the future, we should plan on increases for the rest of the year (IMHO).

We have some time I would really like to see it go down to around 3 I could settle for that.  I just really don't want 4-5 changes.

I'm especially afraid no big announcement and still a bump of around 4 right now.  Makes me wonder what's going on.

[jmumich]

I'll take 0.51-0.75.

Side note - I was looking at Litecoin diff. and price performance around the recent halving (and prior to it).

It looks like the price settled in around $1.40-50 in April-May after a long decline, with difficulty fairly stable, bouncing around 40k. Then things started going crazy as the halving was approaching, and price and diff. increased.

Now, price is (somewhat) stable around $2.80-90, and difficulty is dropping, right back to around 40k (a little below). If this equilibrium holds, that will mean a wash for long term miners as the price doubled and difficulty remained roughly the same. Obviously bitcoin is a different animal, but interesting nevertheless.

[wlefever]

I'll take 0.51-0.75.

Side note - I was looking at Litecoin diff. and price performance around the recent halving (and prior to it).

It looks like the price settled in around $1.40-50 in April-May after a long decline, with difficulty fairly stable, bouncing around 40k. Then things started going crazy as the halving was approaching, and price and diff. increased.

Now, price is (somewhat) stable around $2.80-90, and difficulty is dropping, right back to around 40k (a little below). If this equilibrium holds, that will mean a wash for long term miners as the price doubled and difficulty remained roughly the same. Obviously bitcoin is a different animal, but interesting nevertheless.

That is interesting to keep in mind when bitcoin halving rolls around.  Biggest difference is ASIC technologies are ever advancing for SHA256, and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight for hashrate growth.  At some point though the price will need to support that growth though, but when?

[notlist3d]

I'll take 0.51-0.75.

Side note - I was looking at Litecoin diff. and price performance around the recent halving (and prior to it).

It looks like the price settled in around $1.40-50 in April-May after a long decline, with difficulty fairly stable, bouncing around 40k. Then things started going crazy as the halving was approaching, and price and diff. increased.

Now, price is (somewhat) stable around $2.80-90, and difficulty is dropping, right back to around 40k (a little below). If this equilibrium holds, that will mean a wash for long term miners as the price doubled and difficulty remained roughly the same. Obviously bitcoin is a different animal, but interesting nevertheless.

That is interesting to keep in mind when bitcoin halving rolls around.  Biggest difference is ASIC technologies are ever advancing for SHA256, and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight for hashrate growth.  At some point though the price will need to support that growth thought, but when?

We are a while away from having though.   It is approaching but at least most gear does not factor it in on ROI at this point.

At a point we will be faced with it and I don't know what will happen there.  No one can give a for sure anwser till it happens really.  Will btc price rise where we can keep running?  Will hashrate go down for a point? No one knows.

[suchmoon]

I'll take 0.51-0.75.

Side note - I was looking at Litecoin diff. and price performance around the recent halving (and prior to it).

It looks like the price settled in around $1.40-50 in April-May after a long decline, with difficulty fairly stable, bouncing around 40k. Then things started going crazy as the halving was approaching, and price and diff. increased.

Now, price is (somewhat) stable around $2.80-90, and difficulty is dropping, right back to around 40k (a little below). If this equilibrium holds, that will mean a wash for long term miners as the price doubled and difficulty remained roughly the same. Obviously bitcoin is a different animal, but interesting nevertheless.

That is interesting to keep in mind when bitcoin halving rolls around.  Biggest difference is ASIC technologies are ever advancing for SHA256, and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight for hashrate growth.  At some point though the price will need to support that growth though, but when?

Energy efficiency is getting better too. Theoretically the price doesn't have to go up as long as difficulty and efficiency remain in balance (and the purchase price to some extent too).

As for halving, LTC has not had any significant progress in ASIC development for quite a while, so either the price had to go up, or the difficulty had to drop or both. It looks like it's the price that's taking care of the halving currently.

[RoadStress]

+2.51 to + 2.75

Thank you.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom still holding pretty steady:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    54,256,630,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    56,270,613,350 (+3.71%)
Adjust time:    After 953 Blocks, About 6.4 days
Hashrate(?):    411,359,841 GH/s

Price is not horrible, but could be better.  Hopefully we can see it go over 230's by a few dollars and break the barrier it seems to be at.

[philipma1957]

S- 7 is on site of bitmaintech. 4800 gh and 1200 watts a fucking beast

My sincere feelings of sorrow for those that grabbed the s-5+.

This gear looks solid

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25%  philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%  gallery2000

+0.51% to +0.75% jmumich


-0.01% to -0.25%  VirosaGITS


+0.76% to +1.00% ezeminer
+1.01% to +1.25% mavericklm
+1.26% to +1.50% HerbPean
+1.51% to +1.75% zebedee
+1.76% to +2.00% valkir
+2.01% to +2.25% edonkey
+2.26% to +2.50% Lboss
+2.51% to +2.75% RoadStress
+3.01% to +3.25% notlist3d
+3.26% to +3.50% wlefever
+3.51% to +3.75% jonnybravo0311
+3.76% to +4.00% Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% wpt1wpt1
+4.26% to +4.50% Kexkey

we have done 1131 blocks so far.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   54,256,630,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   56,331,968,370 (+3.83%)
Adjust time:   After 885 Blocks, About 5.9 days
Hashrate(?):   418,151,080 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.0 minutes
6 blocks: 58.0 minutes
Updated:   10:50 (4.3 minutes ago)

[VirosaGITS]

Wow thats pretty beast. I had guessed 4btc for a 600w factor unit, turn out its a double factor. 8btc for 1200w. Thats too bad i was hoping for something more bite sized. I guess i'll try to get some S5s that'll drop instead of getting a S7.

P.S.:I think you lost my pick? Not that it matters at all since there's no way -0.01% to -0.25% is going to be right. I guess we're going to see a steady +% for a while, until we cap the new gen.

[mavericklm]

$$$
too fucking expensive
s5+ looks ok from this point

i'm still waiting for s7+

[suchmoon]

$$$
too fucking expensive
s5+ looks ok from this point

i'm still waiting for s7+

It's a good thing in a way I guess. There won't be a massive upgrade that would drive the diff up and bitmain of course priced it to match their near-monopoly position.

I think I'll get a few to test them out but will wait for a price drop before buying more.

[notlist3d]

$$$
too fucking expensive
s5+ looks ok from this point

i'm still waiting for s7+

It's a good thing in a way I guess. There won't be a massive upgrade that would drive the diff up and bitmain of course priced it to match their near-monopoly position.

I think I'll get a few to test them out but will wait for a price drop before buying more.

The S7 controller appears to be same as S5+.  So they very very easily could throw an S7+ together.   

Would not surprise me if we find a S7+ a month or so after.  The body design is the same aswell.

[suchmoon]

$$$
too fucking expensive
s5+ looks ok from this point

i'm still waiting for s7+

It's a good thing in a way I guess. There won't be a massive upgrade that would drive the diff up and bitmain of course priced it to match their near-monopoly position.

I think I'll get a few to test them out but will wait for a price drop before buying more.

The S7 controller appears to be same as S5+.  So they very very easily could throw an S7+ together.   

Would not surprise me if we find a S7+ a month or so after.  The body design is the same aswell.

14.5 TH/s would be sweet. 20 BTC for the privilege - not so much