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Author Topic: how long to $100 ? $1000 ?  (Read 7501 times)
Findeton
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June 03, 2011, 08:54:28 PM
 #21

But does that serve any real purpose?  If difficulty increases by 100x because of all the new miners does that help bitcoins as a unit of exchange? 

Yes, it helps A LOT indeed. Right now it costs about 1$ to get 1BTC, and the $/BTC rate is about 13$. If difficulty increases by 100x it will mean that it will cost 100$ to get a BTC. And it's more or less established that difficulty follows price more than the other way around, so it will mean that, before difficulty increased 100x, $/BTC increased at least 100x.

All that equipment is basically wasting power to do arbitrary calculations that only have value because of an artificial currency.  I don't want to sound anti-bitcoin or anything, it's just that argument reminds me of when people saying government spending is good because it creates jobs without considering whether those jobs add anything of value to the economy.

In my way of thinking, you are creating bitcoins with electricity. Printing paper costs something. When difficulty and network total Thash/s rises, Bitcoin currency gets safer. You are spending more and more electricity in creating a more secure currency (in order to prevent double spending and all the like).

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June 03, 2011, 09:00:57 PM
 #22

But does that serve any real purpose?  If difficulty increases by 100x because of all the new miners does that help bitcoins as a unit of exchange?  All that equipment is basically wasting power to do arbitrary calculations that only have value because of an artificial currency.

Consider this: If mining becomes insanely difficult and a newbie is looking for a way to acquire bitcoins, he/she will purchase the coins instead of mine for them. So, we'll be seeing a lot more people buying bitcoins instead of mining equipment. This will cause an increase in bitcoin value.

Also, all the mining power is going into verifying the block chain, which prevents hacking.

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June 03, 2011, 09:06:15 PM
 #23

Do any of the naysayers take into account the money being pumped into the economy because of bitcoin?  I just dropped $500 on mining gear.  Nothing compared to what others are doing.  But still, $500 going out into the economy that otherwise would not have been spent. 

But does that serve any real purpose?  If difficulty increases by 100x because of all the new miners does that help bitcoins as a unit of exchange?  All that equipment is basically wasting power to do arbitrary calculations that only have value because of an artificial currency.  I don't want to sound anti-bitcoin or anything, it's just that argument reminds me of when people saying government spending is good because it creates jobs without considering whether those jobs add anything of value to the economy.

Yes, it does server a "real" purpose to the security of the bitcoin network.  This is valuable to the people who believe bitcoin is valuable.  If you don't believe bitcoin is valuable, then all that hashing will appear to be a waste.
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June 03, 2011, 09:15:12 PM
 #24

If bitcoin adoption increases so will it's value to a point.  Up to 250,000 USD if it becomes universally adopted throughout the internet.  1,000,000 USD if it's adopted throughout the world.  What rate these points are achieved will be dependent on adoption rate Smiley

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June 03, 2011, 09:18:23 PM
 #25

IMO has anybody ever heard of SILVER?!  Umm, talk about its growth potential compared to others as a commodity.

BTC is a "fun" play but I wont put my 401K into it.  Just enough to get an ulcer though.
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June 03, 2011, 09:30:55 PM
 #26

IMO has anybody ever heard of SILVER?!  Umm, talk about its growth potential compared to others as a commodity.

BTC is a "fun" play but I wont put my 401K into it.  Just enough to get an ulcer though.

According to my calculations silver and gold are both over valued right now.  If Bitcoin was as universally accepted as gold and overvalue to the same extent it would be worth around 1.5 to 2 million USD per coin.

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d.james
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June 03, 2011, 09:34:17 PM
 #27

why aim so low??? try $1 million per coin. then everyone here will most likely become millionaires

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Dobrodav
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June 03, 2011, 10:39:39 PM
 #28

You are all refer to $ as to some steady and relible value.
I am do not want to hurt anybody, but that is fantom, especcialy if you will look on $ from outside US boundaries.
$ is absolutly fiat now. I am just do not know how much cost one penny.
I am suggest that 1 dollar coupeur is worse more than one dollar.

We need some external help from economist. Yes Economists are not just some " Idiots that spend their time in universites". The really know some good stuff , that they learned on second or third courses.

We need to determine BTC coefficient, that reflex buy/sell power of bitcoin in relation to GOODS.

On really important goods, that are important for surviving: Salt, matches, bread, meat, fish, beans, gas, black iron, steel, coal, and so on. Including some luxury goods in that index should be considered illegal.
No monkey brains should counts as meat. No fuga fish should considered as fish. No luxury bath should considered as black iron. That things should reffer in their prices to main BTC index.

Point is - we nead some index to relay on. We need some numbers that we can show in our groceries as solid price, that we did not must change every day. There is somne coeef that can  be changed 30 times in a day. And some steady value that can be shown in some number value - price of goods. Now BTC related to that value as 1 btc -  30 unints of that constant value, tomorrow it will reffer to it like 1 to 100.
Than its just easy calculation. we can have some STABLE VALUE OF THE GOODS. And we can easy relate to this value in BTC.

I am to drunk to post that idea clearly. But i am hope that somebody got it in their mind.
Feel freee to use it. - that idea  is  hopping in the air for long time - feel free to use it.

I am will post  that b-sht untill someone will interested in that and start some constructive dialog about that. From that point, my shady mind will not help that idea anymore.








We will  meet in not-so-distant future.
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TraderTimm
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June 03, 2011, 11:05:53 PM
 #29

Just screwing around with some numbers. It may have been done before, but why not update it a bit.

(Going off of bitcoincharts.com for these numbers.)

Bitcoins in Circulation: 6,422,000
BTC/USD Rate: 13.79
USD Value: $88,559,380

Absolute Bitcoin Limit: 21,000,000
Using the same rate as above:
USD Value: $289,590,000

The ratio of circulating-to-absolute limit amounts is ~ 3.27
If you multiply the current rate by this figure the result is: ~ 45.09 BTC/USD

That assumes quite a bit - that one, the rate will keep the same ratio with the issuance up to the limit. (It could easily exceed this.) And other factors that may weigh on the marketplace, either politically or otherwise.

Makes 100 and beyond not seem so fanciful, doesn't it? I agree that 100 is completely reachable and beyond almost trivially so.


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Dobrodav
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June 03, 2011, 11:28:55 PM
 #30

We again saw that dangerous comparsion on USD.
Bitcoin is not USD, it never planned to be " like USD"

USD is one fiat currency and BTC is absolutely another.

I am understand why ppls are become so overexcited by BTC/USD value,
but that means nothing in terms of economics.

We need hard dependacy of BTC in real GOODS.
Than we can make some constant prices in our groceries , that will point to real BTC value by the solid (at least in terms of the year) terms, that can be  turned in BTC value  by easy calculation. BTC course is changed to other currencie, but its relatyvly solid on BTC to goods value.


Edit:
Looks like i am fool of that "hard bitcoin index sh*t".
Somebody needs to fight that idea-  at least to disscus it.

We will  meet in not-so-distant future.
Today`s strange music :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8mCgjbBPMk
Yesterday`s  strange music:
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Findeton
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June 03, 2011, 11:33:56 PM
 #31

Just screwing around with some numbers. It may have been done before, but why not update it a bit.

(Going off of bitcoincharts.com for these numbers.)

Bitcoins in Circulation: 6,422,000
BTC/USD Rate: 13.79
USD Value: $88,559,380

Absolute Bitcoin Limit: 21,000,000
Using the same rate as above:
USD Value: $289,590,000

The ratio of circulating-to-absolute limit amounts is ~ 3.27
If you multiply the current rate by this figure the result is: ~ 45.09 BTC/USD

That assumes quite a bit - that one, the rate will keep the same ratio with the issuance up to the limit. (It could easily exceed this.) And other factors that may weigh on the marketplace, either politically or otherwise.

Makes 100 and beyond not seem so fanciful, doesn't it? I agree that 100 is completely reachable and beyond almost trivially so.

If the 13.7$/BTC stays stable when we reach 21m bitcoins, you'll still have the same number of bitcoins. For me those calculations make no sense.

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Dobrodav
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June 03, 2011, 11:40:46 PM
 #32

More of that - USD is not all the value of the world. That is wrong and dangerous idea. There is to much peaple, who will stuck youor nose in that fact, and you should be prepared for this.

We will  meet in not-so-distant future.
Today`s strange music :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8mCgjbBPMk
Yesterday`s  strange music:
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Findeton
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June 03, 2011, 11:58:21 PM
 #33

We again saw that dangerous comparsion on USD.
Bitcoin is not USD, it never planned to be " like USD"

USD is one fiat currency and BTC is absolutely another.

I am understand why ppls are become so overexcited by BTC/USD value,
but that means nothing in terms of economics.

We need hard dependacy of BTC in real GOODS.
Than we can make some constant prices in our groceries , that will point to real BTC value by the solid (at least in terms of the year) terms, that can be  turned in BTC value  by easy calculation. BTC course is changed to other currencie, but its relatyvly solid on BTC to goods value.

This is a rising currency. It's normal, in it's infancy, that $/BTC rate increases at a big pace. As long as day volume and difficulty increases too, it's not a problem for the long term sustainability.

Just an estimation:

Actual day volume is 700k$/day. Forex moves 1.8Trillion a day, the Indian rupee represents about 0.5% of that. When will we move 1% of the indian rupee? 1.8e12*0.005*0.01=90e6 = $90 million/day.

I think it will be by then that we will hit mainstream big time (if we ever do). If bitcoin is still legal and price rises at the same pace than volume, 1 BTC will be tantamount to $1600 and total BTC volume will be 12.8B.

If we survive that, man, that could actually lead to a real world banking revolution.

Bitcoin Weekly, bitcoin analysis and commentary

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darkwon
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June 04, 2011, 12:11:58 AM
 #34

We again saw that dangerous comparsion on USD.
Bitcoin is not USD, it never planned to be " like USD"

USD is one fiat currency and BTC is absolutely another.

I am understand why ppls are become so overexcited by BTC/USD value,
but that means nothing in terms of economics.

We need hard dependacy of BTC in real GOODS.
Than we can make some constant prices in our groceries , that will point to real BTC value by the solid (at least in terms of the year) terms, that can be  turned in BTC value  by easy calculation. BTC course is changed to other currencie, but its relatyvly solid on BTC to goods value.

This is a rising currency. It's normal, in it's infancy, that $/BTC rate increases at a big pace. As long as day volume and difficulty increases too, it's not a problem for the long term sustainability.

Just an estimation:

Actual day volume is 700k$/day. Forex moves 1.8Trillion a day, the Indian rupee represents about 0.5% of that. When will we move 1% of the indian rupee? 1.8e12*0.005*0.01=90e6 = $90 million/day.

I think it will be by then that we will hit mainstream big time (if we ever do). If bitcoin is still legal and price rises at the same pace than volume, 1 BTC will be tantamount to $1600 and total BTC volume will be 12.8B.

If we survive that, man, that could actually lead to a real world banking revolution.

Your comparison is flawed, a lot of the movement on Forex is from bots/automated trading and is very high-frequency with tiny amounts, plus Forex has way more trade options. BTC is currently mostly real buyers and sellers trading big chunks, aka. miners and guys that want to invest and hold.

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June 04, 2011, 12:46:55 AM
 #35

Do any of the naysayers take into account the money being pumped into the economy because of bitcoin?  I just dropped $500 on mining gear.  Nothing compared to what others are doing.  But still, $500 going out into the economy that otherwise would not have been spent.  

If "money is being pumped into the economy," does that not mean that "goods are being pumped out of the economy"?  How does this help anything? Spending money does not "stimulate" the real economy unless that spending went into something profitable, ie - successful investment. Spending money does stimulate GDP figures, but that's just cause GDP is a measure of spending Wink  Let's bury this silly Keynesian notion that spending is valuable for its own sake.
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June 04, 2011, 12:50:42 AM
 #36

More of that - USD is not all the value of the world. That is wrong and dangerous idea. There is to much peaple, who will stuck youor nose in that fact, and you should be prepared for this.

I'd be happy to rework that in the currency of your choosing. The bottom line is, we have to compare it to something. So, if that 'something' is Rubles, Marks, Kronor, Pounds, Euro... The same argument holds, you have to pick a yardstick somewhere before bitcoin takes over the entire world, which I think it will.

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June 04, 2011, 12:52:40 AM
 #37

[quote author=darkwon link=topic=11602.msg165849#msg165849 d
Your comparison is flawed, a lot of the movement on Forex is from bots/automated trading and is very high-frequency with tiny amounts, plus Forex has way more trade options. BTC is currently mostly real buyers and sellers trading big chunks, aka. miners and guys that want to invest and hold.
[/quote]

 i am believe , that your comparsion is  started from the easly seeing fact, that course of BTC depends on difficulty. Am i  right ?

I am dont want to harm you, and you should forgive me that  creepy "english" language, that i  am using through decades. At least that lessions of english did not
 just the waste of the time in 1989, when i am become, somehow familiar with it.

 There is indeed corelation between diff and course of btc, but that correlation is not straight. Miners are forced to sell their BTC relativly quickly, to pay their investments in electricity and hardver upgrades. MINERS ARE MAIN SELLERS NOW.

We can just hope that "old BTC" will not ruined marked wright now, and will be putted on market carefully. But we cant depand on this. So any surprise is possible now.



We will  meet in not-so-distant future.
Today`s strange music :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8mCgjbBPMk
Yesterday`s  strange music:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uCTyC1FGLw
bitcoinewbie
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June 04, 2011, 01:28:01 AM
 #38

are you guys crazy!? we are looking at 100 by the end of the week, 1,000 in 10 days and 1M in a fortnight. Easy.

figured as long as we're making stuff up, might as well go all the way..  Wink

Question:  Can anybody think of higher numbers?  Good Luck Guys!


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June 04, 2011, 01:29:18 AM
 #39

For BTC to "go big" round the world perhaps if a large player accepted a basket of commodities not equally tied to each other but loosely on an open market.  For example:   oil, gold, and BTC basket of goods. in exchange for whatever else the counter party is willing to accept in return as payment.  Military equipment, water purification, corn  etc...
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June 04, 2011, 01:32:30 AM
 #40

A lot of people are ignoring the fact that QE2 just stopped and if QE3 doesn't start then jobs numbers are going to continue to fall. I get the idea that pretty soon people just won't have money, this will be a problem for three large reasons:
1) Bitcoin miners will sell their coins
2) Bitcoin "hoarders" will sell their coins
3) Bitcoin buyers won't buy coins

It's weird to see people fawning over Bitcoin while commodities lag, to be honest. While silver and gold certainly have their benefits, the traditional argument for why you'd buy Bitcoin over those is due to the higher taxes on commodities. That's enough to not purchase as much of them, but to hear some guys like the Pirate Party guy say they are putting their entire savings into Bitcoin? That just seems absurd. Diversification is ALWAYS a good idea.

Another thing that bothers me is no one at all is talking about MtGox being raided and having their coin and dollar assets confiscated. It would only take one "hoarding law" to do this, or a simple judicial injunction if there was a threat of fraud.

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