Bitcoin Forum
December 05, 2016, 04:44:30 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 [3]  All
  Print  
Author Topic: how long to $100 ? $1000 ?  (Read 7496 times)
Findeton
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 02:00:03 AM
 #41

Another thing that bothers me is no one at all is talking about MtGox being raided and having their coin and dollar assets confiscated. It would only take one "hoarding law" to do this, or a simple judicial injunction if there was a threat of fraud.

That'll be tested sooner or later. For bitcoins to be secured, MtGox just have to keep their wallets and other user data encripted and with backups. They could seize their bank accounts though.

Bitcoin Weekly, bitcoin analysis and commentary

14DD7MhRXuw3KDuyUuXvAsRcK4KXTT36XA
1480956270
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480956270

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480956270
Reply with quote  #2

1480956270
Report to moderator
1480956270
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480956270

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480956270
Reply with quote  #2

1480956270
Report to moderator
1480956270
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480956270

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480956270
Reply with quote  #2

1480956270
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1480956270
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480956270

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480956270
Reply with quote  #2

1480956270
Report to moderator
1480956270
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480956270

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480956270
Reply with quote  #2

1480956270
Report to moderator
Vladimir
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 812


-


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 02:04:13 AM
 #42

Using mt gox price data rounded to the nearest dollar starting at 6 April, the best exponential (c + E^(b x)) fit to the data is:
  0.0195987 + E^(0.0399244 x)

Giving this --



X axis is 1 for April 6, 2 for April 7, etc.  The dots are the rounded data points.

Exponential growth is unlikely to continue occurring forever, but that equation reaches $100 at about day 115 (July 30), and $1000 at about day 173 (September 26).  Unlikely though.  Smiley

this is fine first post, beats hands down "bitcoin is doomed because of deflation" kind  Grin Thank You.

-
Bazil
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 02:23:50 AM
 #43

For bitcoins to be at $1500 we'd need about 100x the demand. How many people could actually get interested in this until it is used as a legit currency and is accepted in most places.  The only way I see this curve continuing for more than a few more months is if big time companies like Ebay (unlikely for awhile since PP already does like bitcoin) and Amazon start accepting it.  Then it will go from exponential curve to a curve that tracks with the spread of use since all the speculators will have been satisfied.

17Bo9a6YpXN2SbwY8mXLCD43Wup9ZE4rwm
jhansen858
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 336


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 03:38:59 AM
 #44

My two cents..

Lets compare to paypal

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paypal

Paypal does 70 billion in transactions in a year.

If bitcoin gets the same size then


70,000,000,000 USD           3333.33 USD
-----------------------    =     --------------
  21,000,000 BTC                      1 BTC


$3333.33 USD / BTC


Hi forum: 1DDpiEt36VTJsiJunyBc3XtG6CcSAnsQ4p
Vladimir
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 812


-


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 04:42:08 AM
 #45

It is not quite valid  to compare maximum amount of bitcoins with annual turnover of paypal. Also considering that bitcoin is not only currency but also a store of value, arguably, your math gets even more irrelevant.


-
Jaime Frontero
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 04:46:49 AM
 #46

My two cents..

Lets compare to paypal

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paypal

Paypal does 70 billion in transactions in a year.

If bitcoin gets the same size then


70,000,000,000 USD           3333.33 USD
-----------------------    =     --------------
  21,000,000 BTC                      1 BTC


$3333.33 USD / BTC



paypal does 70M transactions in this year.  but there aren't even 7M BTC minted.

so really, your equation works out to over $10,000/BTC.  now.

but once Bitcoin starts eating into paypal's business - soon now... very soon - it will tilt to an even higher exchange rate.
jhansen858
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 336


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 05:19:06 AM
 #47

I don't see paypal getting much bigger  Wink

Also, my logic is if in my example, 21 million bitcoins were used to buy 70 billion dollars worth of stuff, then 1 bitcoin was used to buy 3333.33 dollars worth of stuff.

If my logic is in error please correct me if i'm wrong.





Hi forum: 1DDpiEt36VTJsiJunyBc3XtG6CcSAnsQ4p
Jaime Frontero
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 05:29:57 AM
 #48

I don't see paypal getting much bigger  Wink

Also, my logic is if in my example, 21 million bitcoins were used to buy 70 billion dollars worth of stuff, then 1 bitcoin was used to buy 3333.33 dollars worth of stuff.

If my logic is in error please correct me if i'm wrong.






i guess the issue i see is that there aren't 21 M BTC.

you're comparing the current strength/numbers of paypal to the known numbers but unknown strength of Bitcoin - in the year 2040.

and by the time there are 21 M BTC, either paypal will be dramatically weakened - and possibly out of business - or BTC will mean nothing.
ColdHardMetal
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 701



View Profile
June 04, 2011, 05:31:30 AM
 #49

I don't see paypal getting much bigger  Wink

Also, my logic is if in my example, 21 million bitcoins were used to buy 70 billion dollars worth of stuff, then 1 bitcoin was used to buy 3333.33 dollars worth of stuff.

If my logic is in error please correct me if i'm wrong.






That doesn't mean each BTC is worth that much. Each coin could have been exchanged 3000 times for a $1. Your number is just a measure of turnover, not value.

jhansen858
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 336


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 05:56:43 AM
 #50

so there is no equivalence between buying x dollars worth of transactions and x BTC worth of transactions in a year when trying to calculate a stable value for a BTC?

Let me take that question a step further. 

assume: i can buy 1 pound of dog shit for 1 dollar.  (this could be cars if you want)
assume: i transacted 70 billion dollars worth of dog shit last year
assume: the market cap for my dog shit was equal to the total market cap of BTC

is it a logical fallacy to assume that if i then converted all my dollars at that moment to BTC, and 21 million BTC represented 100% of the total dog shit transacted for that year, that my one BTC is worth $3333.33 worth of dog shit?

I'm not trying to beat a dead horse, I'm just trying to think about this logically.  If someone has some better math, my question is, what would the final value of a btc be if the market cap of btc were the same as paypal?  Does anyone here see btc getting significantly bigger then paypal is now?

And i'm only basing my math on 21million because I'm trying to assume an economy that has fully matured.

Hi forum: 1DDpiEt36VTJsiJunyBc3XtG6CcSAnsQ4p
max in montreal
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 504


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 06:40:48 AM
 #51

[quote author=darkwon link=topic=11602.msg165849#msg165849 d
Your comparison is flawed, a lot of the movement on Forex is from bots/automated trading and is very high-frequency with tiny amounts, plus Forex has way more trade options. BTC is currently mostly real buyers and sellers trading big chunks, aka. miners and guys that want to invest and hold.

 i am believe , that your comparsion is  started from the easly seeing fact, that course of BTC depends on difficulty. Am i  right ?

I am dont want to harm you, and you should forgive me that  creepy "english" language, that i  am using through decades. At least that lessions of english did not
 just the waste of the time in 1989, when i am become, somehow familiar with it.

 There is indeed corelation between diff and course of btc, but that correlation is not straight. Miners are forced to sell their BTC relativly quickly, to pay their investments in electricity and hardver upgrades. MINERS ARE MAIN SELLERS NOW.

We can just hope that "old BTC" will not ruined marked wright now, and will be putted on market carefully. But we cant depand on this. So any surprise is possible now.

[/quote]

As I understand it, he would like the yardstick to be some sore of goods...like 1 liter of water costs x BTC, compare from that...
Bazil
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile
June 04, 2011, 10:27:21 PM
 #52

I find it interesting that his graph is under estimating the current price rise.  But his graph predicts a value of 24 million per bit coin by this time next year.  No way that's going to happen unless the speculators go nuts.  I calculated their maximum value to be 1 million per coin without speculators driving it up.  Then again if the economy crashes like a flying cow patty, people will want to move their money to safe places.  Since there will never be more than 21 million bit coins that makes it pretty safe in the long run.  That kind of demand could drive it up to ridicules values.

17Bo9a6YpXN2SbwY8mXLCD43Wup9ZE4rwm
paulie_w
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 420


View Profile
June 05, 2011, 11:37:14 AM
 #53

start mass sell

I think large holders should sell to support themselves or the eco-system (by funding startups, campaigns or institutions.)

What do billionaires do with their money: invest or lend.. via a financial institution. I don't think it'd be hard or impossible to create a financial institution. And it certainly wouldn't be impossible to fund a few bitcoin startups.

Has anyone actually started doing this yet?
denizen
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 8


View Profile
June 11, 2011, 11:53:29 PM
 #54

My original chart from Jun 4 (daily price dots + fitted exponential curve), plus dots for new days since then:

http://i.imgur.com/UiH7z.png

Also consider (log scale):

http://i.imgur.com/9hE3D.png
TonyHoyle
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 59


View Profile
June 11, 2011, 11:58:13 PM
 #55

We're actually slightly below that curve now ($14 as I write) but not significantly.  Very informative.  Smiley
niemivh
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 196



View Profile
June 11, 2011, 11:58:57 PM
 #56

This thread seems rather optimistic.  I doubt we'll see $30 again before the end of the year.  So many people were buying in the build up to $30 and then it sat at $30 for hours and hours with someone's darkpool's cashing out.  I'm sure many of those people that bought on the jump from $19 to $31 and the ones that bought at the flat $30 holding will be looking to sell once they can recoup their money back: selling at what they bought for.  For this reason I think the price will at most be $20 - $25 until the year is out, if we are lucky.  Might continue to drop back down to a few bucks.

I'll keep my politics out of your economics if you keep your economics out of my politics.

16LdMA6pCgq9ULrstHmiwwwbGe1BJQyDqr
imperi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 196


View Profile
June 12, 2011, 03:57:41 PM
 #57

This thread seems rather optimistic.  I doubt we'll see $30 again before the end of the year.  So many people were buying in the build up to $30 and then it sat at $30 for hours and hours with someone's darkpool's cashing out.  I'm sure many of those people that bought on the jump from $19 to $31 and the ones that bought at the flat $30 holding will be looking to sell once they can recoup their money back: selling at what they bought for.  For this reason I think the price will at most be $20 - $25 until the year is out, if we are lucky.  Might continue to drop back down to a few bucks.

We'll probably see it hit $30 in the next few days...
TraderTimm
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
June 12, 2011, 06:39:31 PM
 #58

My original chart from Jun 4 (daily price dots + fitted exponential curve), plus dots for new days since then:

(snipped)

Also consider (log scale):

(snipped)


Good charts. I've been looking at the log scale myself, when everyone was screaming bloody murder and I didn't see the current bar close under 15, I knew we had a successful test of the longer-term trendline.

Newbies when trading make the same mistakes, succumb to emotion instead of sticking to a plan. I'm not at all surprised that we are shooting back to previous levels here. Just wait until monday...

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
FreeMoney
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246


Strength in numbers


View Profile WWW
June 12, 2011, 06:47:48 PM
 #59

This thread seems rather optimistic.  I doubt we'll see $30 again before the end of the year.  So many people were buying in the build up to $30 and then it sat at $30 for hours and hours with someone's darkpool's cashing out.  I'm sure many of those people that bought on the jump from $19 to $31 and the ones that bought at the flat $30 holding will be looking to sell once they can recoup their money back: selling at what they bought for.  For this reason I think the price will at most be $20 - $25 until the year is out, if we are lucky.  Might continue to drop back down to a few bucks.

So how cheaply would you write $35 call options? Would you put some on bitoption.org?

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
Pages: « 1 2 [3]  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!