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Author Topic: Deflation and Bitcoin, the last word on this forum  (Read 128510 times)
MoonShadow
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September 20, 2011, 06:49:20 PM
 #261

There won't be a recovery without deflation.


Yes, but we have already seen some deflation, and attempts to "combat" same.  I would agree that the correction is not yet over, but to assume that we will see general signs in the overall economy (such as consumer price deflation) as opposed to deflation centered in particular industries (such as real estate and industrial commodities) is unsupportable, IMHO.

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 I don't remember the 70's, but I've been advised to look forward to it: High price inflation, high unemployment, economic stagnation.

That would be the 'stagflation' that I mentioned prior.  A condition of concurrent consumer price inflation and rising middle class unemployment rates that Keynseian economy theory insists is impossible.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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jtimon
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September 20, 2011, 08:19:31 PM
 #262

I understand that deflation cannot be as high as inflation can. So what? I'm not advocating for inflation.
Deflation doesn't last for long. It

1) Liquidates the unsustainable debt that interest (very often with the help of politicians and/or monetary inflation) has created.
2) Destroys (or just stops to produce) enough real capital so that capital yields can be high enough (higher than interest rates) again.

And then disappears. Deflation is unsustainable in the long run. By sustained deflation, an ounce of gold could buy the world with enough time which is nonsense, but it still is a destructive force.

Probably my view of praxeology is too simple, I just learn about it last year. I just wanted to say that I prefer to rely on logic and undeniable truths rather than "historical evidences" in our discussion. If you master that methodology, then use it to make me see the light. I just don't see how you can convince me that "deflation is good/innocuous" (as many people here claims) with logic.
The argument to defend deflation that I've heard more times is "look, inflation is bad because...". I don't want to solve the problems of deflation with inflation. I prefer to look for the source of deflation. As far as I can tell the sources of deflation are:

1) The downside of economic cycles, debt and credit destruction (the worst and bigger cause).
2) Hoarding (that allows parties with enough money to cause deflation on their own)
3) Economic growth

What causes economic cycles in my opinion is interest, a quality of scarce and everlasting moneys (capital-money).
But hey, I see free markets as part of nature and I see nothing wrong with them. I like this community because of its anarcho-capitalist roots. The first point where we disagree is "capitalism == free market". But we all want free market, so you can skip those parts of your discourse where you try to tell me that free market is good when ou try to convince me that there's nothing wrong with deflation.
Deflation is a symptom (when there's caused by more than growth) but is also a problem.
We could talk about gold instead of bitcoins, both are flawed as money in the same way.

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
MoonShadow
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September 21, 2011, 12:52:42 AM
 #263

I understand that deflation cannot be as high as inflation can. So what? I'm not advocating for inflation.
Deflation doesn't last for long. It

1) Liquidates the unsustainable debt that interest (very often with the help of politicians and/or monetary inflation) has created.
2) Destroys (or just stops to produce) enough real capital so that capital yields can be high enough (higher than interest rates) again.

And then disappears. Deflation is unsustainable in the long run. By sustained deflation, an ounce of gold could buy the world with enough time which is nonsense, but it still is a destructive force.


I suppose that our disagreement is more of a matter of degree.  I don't contest that deflation can be a destructive force.  I do think that a monetary system that tends towards deflation (gold standard, Bitcoin) and is naturally moderated is preferable to one that tends towards inflation (fractional reserve fiat) and is actively moderated.  The reason that it's preferable is because the consequences of the business cycle are more muted in a deflationary monetary model.  Thus, deflation is not "good" so much as it's better than the alternative, generally speaking.

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Probably my view of praxeology is too simple, I just learn about it last year. I just wanted to say that I prefer to rely on logic and undeniable truths rather than "historical evidences" in our discussion.


Although praxeology attempts to use reason and logic, it's still a social science.  There are no such things as 'undeniable truths' in any social science.  And the greatest folly of most self-described economists, both in history and modern, is the failure to recognize that economics is a social science.  Otherwise, mathmatical models really could be developed that consistantly predict economic events.  People have been trying to do this for decades in some form or another, but none are particularly good.  The best predictive model ever devised is the predictive market, such as Intrade, that leverages the collective wisdom of society itself in an organized fashion.  Even the best prophet among us isn't as good as all of us.

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 If you master that methodology, then use it to make me see the light. I just don't see how you can convince me that "deflation is good/innocuous" (as many people here claims) with logic.


Again, I'm not making such a claim.  I'm been arguing that it's better than the alternative.

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The argument to defend deflation that I've heard more times is "look, inflation is bad because...". I don't want to solve the problems of deflation with inflation. I prefer to look for the source of deflation. As far as I can tell the sources of deflation are:

1) The downside of economic cycles, debt and credit destruction (the worst and bigger cause).
2) Hoarding (that allows parties with enough money to cause deflation on their own)
3) Economic growth

What causes economic cycles in my opinion is interest, a quality of scarce and everlasting moneys (capital-money).


Again, I have to say that you are correct, but not completely so.  Economics is a complex topic, and any such simplification of causes such as you present are bound to leave out or gloss over non-trivial contributing factors.  But it doesn't matter what the root causes are, if one accepts that any market is 'unstable' and always seeking it's equalibrium.  Once you accept that, then it becomes obvious that the business cycle, as the agragate view of that unstablility, is inevitable.  If the cycle is inevitable, then the best overall solution is to use a monetary system that is self-regulating and generally less likely to reach extremes.  The only monetary systems that fit that description are commodity standards and Bitcoin.

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We could talk about gold instead of bitcoins, both are flawed as money in the same way.


In what way do you consider them flawed?

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
vrotaru
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September 25, 2011, 05:52:32 PM
 #264


Savings can be investments or not. But if you save by hoarding, that's not an investment.


It is still savings, and it still is making investments possible (and sound) however in a slightly more roundabout way. The stuff you do not consume remains available for investors as a fund from each to "draw" resources for their investment projects.

And the way those resources are available to them is through lower prices of goods. Since you are not spending, your (honestly hoarded) money is not entering the marketplace and thus lowers the price of your those goods you choose not to consume. As compared with the alternative of you spending all/most of your money.

Let me put it that way. If you are investing (in a traditional way) you are putting the resources you did not consume at the disposal of one investor. If you are just saving, you are putting the resources you did not consume at the disposal of all investors as a whole.

What should you do? Whatever you want, dude.



jtimon
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September 26, 2011, 09:44:42 AM
 #265

I understand that, hoarding causes deflation. But as said in my example, deflation devalues real capital and that doesn't encourage investments.
The thing you fail to see is that money is a common. You're holding it now, but it belongs to the whole society because it is an abstract good, an agreement. The money you hold could be worth nothing overnight if society decides so.
So the way people saves should be the way that the society benefits more, and that's not hoarding.

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
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September 26, 2011, 11:26:32 AM
 #266

I understand that, hoarding causes deflation. But as said in my example, deflation devalues real capital and that doesn't encourage investments.
The thing you fail to see is that money is a common. You're holding it now, but it belongs to the whole society because it is an abstract good, an agreement. The money you hold could be worth nothing overnight if society decides so.
So the way people saves should be the way that the society benefits more, and that's not hoarding.


Did you read/understand what he wrote? When you invest, you're investing in one company. When you hoard money, you're lowering prices for all. Sounds pretty good to me.

Money is a common... what? I assume you mean a "common good". Common goods are both rivalrous and non-excludable.

"A rival (subtractable) good is a good whose consumption by one consumer prevents simultaneous consumption by other consumers."

That does not describe money. There is not a limited quantity of money. If you think there is, then you don't know what money is.
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September 26, 2011, 11:47:06 AM
 #267

What I mean is that whatever money is, it's the whole community of users who decide what money is (it can be imposed by a state). If the world decides that, for example, gold is not money anymore (not the case for now) then gold can lose all its monetary value overnight.
You can't be in the same exact place of a road at the same time, but a road can still be a common.

When you hoard money, you're lowering prices for all, and that discourages investing. Discouraging real capital accumulation doesn't sound good to me. I still don't know what do you think is wrong with my bakery example. Of course, if you don't see any problem with prices dropping consistently, it's harder to see something wrong with hoarding. I hoard euros and silver myself, so I don't see hoarding as immoral: it's just a consequence of the structure of capital-money.

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September 26, 2011, 11:51:17 AM
 #268

....... I hoard euros and silver myself, ...............

so so you're trolling a bit with the bitcoin hoarding... hmm

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September 26, 2011, 11:54:45 AM
 #269

What I mean is that whatever money is, it's the whole community of users who decide what money is (it can be imposed by a state). If the world decides that, for example, gold is not money anymore (not the case for now) then gold can lose all its monetary value overnight.
You can't be in the same exact place of a road at the same time, but a road can still be a common.

When you hoard money, you're lowering prices for all, and that discourages investing. Discouraging real capital accumulation doesn't sound good to me. I still don't know what do you think is wrong with my bakery example. Of course, if you don't see any problem with prics dropping consistently, it's harder to see something wrong with hoarding. I hoard euros and silver myself, so I don't see hoarding as immoral: it's just a consequence of the structure of capital-money.


I agree with what you say about gold, but I don't agree with the analogy to roads. Occupying a section of road does not increase its value to others.

Yes, prices dropping means economic progress means the real living standards of all are increasing. It's the sort of thing that will eliminate poverty, eventually. I think you need to examine your assumptions. For instance, HOW do falling prices discourage investing? If that is true, why is that a bad thing? Why do you feel that you know the proper amount of investment, but everyone else doesn't?
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September 26, 2011, 12:01:48 PM
 #270

....... I hoard euros and silver myself, ...............

so so you're trolling a bit with the bitcoin hoarding... hmm

Sorry, I also hoard bitcoins and namecoins.

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September 26, 2011, 01:47:03 PM
 #271

I agree with what you say about gold, but I don't agree with the analogy to roads. Occupying a section of road does not increase its value to others.

Yes, prices dropping means economic progress means the real living standards of all are increasing. It's the sort of thing that will eliminate poverty, eventually. I think you need to examine your assumptions. For instance, HOW do falling prices discourage investing? If that is true, why is that a bad thing? Why do you feel that you know the proper amount of investment, but everyone else doesn't?

Deflation makes non monetary capital less attractive, because its price (and nominal yield) is dropping. See my bakery example.
Real capital accumulation is the source of the wealth. We're wealthier than people in earlier times because we have more capital, more investments have been made.
I think that if there were enough (to meet demand) of certain type capital, the competition between the capitals of the same type would make their yields zero.
If there's sustained profits of any type a competitor can enter the market to get that profit, and that makes profit go to zero. But capital yields are a different type of profit that never goes to zero, they can only fall down to the basic interest, money-capital won't allow the construction of factories that profit less than money itself from liquidity.

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
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September 26, 2011, 01:53:55 PM
 #272

We're wealthier than people in earlier times because we have more capital, more investments have been made.

Wealth means nothing, unless you can acquire more of the goods and services you need and want. So, we have higher standards of living because more capital allows lower prices.

Besides, as explained by vrotaru, lower prices means that all businesses can acquire more capital cheaply.
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September 26, 2011, 03:01:01 PM
 #273

We're wealthier than people in earlier times because we have more capital, more investments have been made.

Wealth means nothing, unless you can acquire more of the goods and services you need and want. So, we have higher standards of living because more capital allows lower prices.

Besides, as explained by vrotaru, lower prices means that all businesses can acquire more capital cheaply.

You're talking about one-time deflation. Thanks to an technological advance I produce it cheaper and I sell it cheaper. I hoard a million dollars and prices get cheaper. But I'm talking about a constant deflation rate, that's what is dangerous for the financial market and discourages investments. You can say that deflation only caused by growth and hoarding cannot be sustained as an annual rate like the one in my example.
What about cycles deflation? Deflation produced by credit/debt shrinking? Credit acts like part of M, interest expands debt and higher part of the total production goes to pay interest with time. When that cannot be sustained any longer, the debts start to be liquidated, effectively reducing M. That creates deflation that makes liquidity even better and investments (and loans from the perspective of borrowers) worse, accelerating the liquidation process during the depression phase of the cycle.

The assumption in my example is a constant deflation rate, and logic tells us that discourages investments: more investments would be made with stable prices.
Yes, the bakery will be cheaper thanks to deflation and that's what makes me prefer to build it in the future rather than today. What's bad is not low prices but falling prices. How that fact affects the calculations of investors and borrowers.

Do you think economic cycles are a problem?
I think they are, and I want to attack their cause (basic interest) instead of their symptom/effect (deflation). I don't want monetary inflation to avoid price deflation, I want demurrage to avoid cycles and reduce the undesirable effects of deflation.

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
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September 26, 2011, 03:31:33 PM
 #274

You're talking about one-time deflation. Thanks to an technological advance I produce it cheaper and I sell it cheaper. I hoard a million dollars and prices get cheaper. But I'm talking about a constant deflation rate, that's what is dangerous for the financial market and discourages investments. You can say that deflation only caused by growth and hoarding cannot be sustained as an annual rate like the one in my example.
What about cycles deflation? Deflation produced by credit/debt shrinking? Credit acts like part of M, interest expands debt and higher part of the total production goes to pay interest with time. When that cannot be sustained any longer, the debts start to be liquidated, effectively reducing M. That creates deflation that makes liquidity even better and investments (and loans from the perspective of borrowers) worse, accelerating the liquidation process during the depression phase of the cycle.

I really don't know what you're talking about. It seemed to me that you considered falling prices to be a bad thing.

What is "constant deflation"? Wouldn't that mean that eventually the money supply would reach zero, and the purchasing power would be infinite? Do you think that this is realistic? As the purchasing power of money increases, the incentive to spend it increases, regardless of what you think it will be worth tomorrow.

The assumption in my example is a constant deflation rate, and logic tells us that discourages investments: more investments would be made with stable prices.

Do more investments equal better investments?

Yes, the bakery will be cheaper thanks to deflation and that's what makes me prefer to build it in the future rather than today. What's bad is not low prices but falling prices. How that fact affects the calculations of investors and borrowers.

If you build it tomorrow, you won't make any money today. You're ignoring an entire set of incentives.

Do you think economic cycles are a problem?
I think they are, and I want to attack their cause (basic interest) instead of their symptom/effect (deflation). I don't want monetary inflation to avoid price deflation, I want demurrage to avoid cycles and reduce the undesirable effects of deflation.

I don't understand why you think demurrage will help avoid the business cycle. Can you explain this simply?

I think it would make your posts infinitely clearer if you only referred to the shrinking of the money supply as deflation, and the falling of prices as a result of economic growth with a stable money supply as falling prices, or something of the sort.
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September 26, 2011, 06:10:19 PM
 #275

I really don't know what you're talking about. It seemed to me that you considered falling prices to be a bad thing.

What is "constant deflation"? Wouldn't that mean that eventually the money supply would reach zero, and the purchasing power would be infinite? Do you think that this is realistic?

A constant price deflation rate, say 5% annual price deflation. The monetary base can be stable.

As the purchasing power of money increases, the incentive to spend it increases, regardless of what you think it will be worth tomorrow.
Good point, but still the principal (and interest) of your loan is nominally fixed and the price of real capitals (and their yields) are falling nominally.

Do more investments equal better investments?

Not necessarily. For example, when interest rates are lowered through monetary inflation, it makes by new printed money competing with real savings. That makes the illusion that we have more savings that we actually have. More investments will be made, but many of them won't account the future price inflation caused by the monetary inflation and many of those investments will fail.

Yes, the bakery will be cheaper thanks to deflation and that's what makes me prefer to build it in the future rather than today. What's bad is not low prices but falling prices. How that fact affects the calculations of investors and borrowers.

If you build it tomorrow, you won't make any money today. You're ignoring an entire set of incentives.
See above. I'm going to repeat my example, if you think it is wrong, please point out the assumptions or reasoning that you think it's false or incorrect.

I still think deflation makes borrowing to invest less desirable.
Say we have a potential secure investment that yields 5% of its value annually and interest rates are at 5%.
Our baker starts his bakery (and discounting its own wage and other costs) profits a 5% of the investment that goes to pay interest. After twenty years, the baker sells his bakery at the same price and pays back the full loan.
With stable prices, the investment covers its financial costs and therefore is economically viable.
With deflation, you also have to cover the gains of money from deflation to get the loan.
Say we have 5% annual deflation.
That same investment won't get the loan.
Producing exactly the same and selling the products at lower price each day, the baker can lower his wage to compensate deflation and will buy its supplies at a lower price, but he cannot lower the interest. Even if the loan is made in a way that the monthly payment of interest for the whole period takes deflation into account, the borrower will not be able to pay the loan after that period.
We have assumed a constant revenue of 5% and assuming there's no changes in the competition, there's no reason to expect it to go down.
But the nominal revenue has decreased. What has happened is that the capital (the bakery) has devalued. In our case to 0.95^20 = 0.358485922 % of its original price.

The business should have grown at a 5% rate too to compensate deflation. The interest paid monthly could be nominally constant in this case. Only the very best investments will get funded with deflation.


I don't understand why you think demurrage will help avoid the business cycle. Can you explain this simply?
Oversimplifying it: Interest makes the total level of debts grow exponentially. When the growth in debt is no longer possible, deflation makes the total level of debts decrease in a catastrophic manner.

I think it would make your posts infinitely clearer if you only referred to the shrinking of the money supply as deflation, and the falling of prices as a result of economic growth with a stable money supply as falling prices, or something of the sort.

Sorry I use to clarify and say monetary xflation when it is the monetary base what changes and price inflation when the prices do, but sometimes I forget to put the "price" in front of xflation.

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September 26, 2011, 08:20:48 PM
 #276

I don't understand why you think demurrage will help avoid the business cycle. Can you explain this simply?
Oversimplifying it: Interest makes the total level of debts grow exponentially. When the growth in debt is no longer possible, deflation makes the total level of debts decrease in a catastrophic manner.

Only under a fractional reserve system is the debt contraction ever 'catastrophic' for the economy at large.  Your confusing a symtom with the cause.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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September 26, 2011, 08:32:22 PM
 #277

I understand that, hoarding causes deflation.

Not exactly. An increase in hoarding, ceteris paribus, will lead to price deflation. But there's absolute no reason why a constant amount of hoarding (as, say, percentage of income) should lead to price deflation, since the amount of money in circulation stays the same.

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deflation devalues real capital

I must confess, that i'm slightly puzzled. What does that exactly mean. Decreased physical output of real capital? Hardly. (And what is the *un-real* capital, for that matter). A decreased return on investment? Well, I don't know. The monetary return can be lower but the costs of operating and replacing the capital will also be lower. (As for past costs those are always sunken costs.)

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and that doesn't encourage investments.

Let me put it that way. There is a current consumption fund and there is a investment fund which is equal to total production - current consumption fund. Anything which increases the investment fund encourages investments. And if you think that price deflation encourages savings and think that investments are good thing you should hail price deflation. Because it increases the investment fund. And that's, what investment's are made from.

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The thing you fail to see is that money is a common. You're holding it now, but it belongs to the whole society because it is an abstract good, an agreement. The money you hold could be worth nothing overnight if society decides so.
So the way people saves should be the way that the society benefits more, and that's not hoarding.

No, I no do not see money as a common. As a tool which allows us to coordinate our activites and extend cooperation between people, yes, as something belonging to some kind of mythical Geia, no. The mythical Geia, is, well, mythical, and for exactly that reason she cannot own anything.

I can accept the "society benifits more" as a shortcut for most people want (will benefit from) more goods, and I agree that the way to having more goods is to have more (successful) investments. But there's absolutely no harm in some people just "hoarding".  And I've already explained why.
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September 27, 2011, 06:58:07 AM
 #278

I don't understand why you think demurrage will help avoid the business cycle. Can you explain this simply?
Oversimplifying it: Interest makes the total level of debts grow exponentially. When the growth in debt is no longer possible, deflation makes the total level of debts decrease in a catastrophic manner.

Only under a fractional reserve system is the debt contraction ever 'catastrophic' for the economy at large.  Your confusing a symtom with the cause.

What makes you think that only that kind of debt contraction is catastrophic or can just cause deflation?

Also, What you propose to do against fractional reserve? I propose to deregulate it. If the reserve is something that banks must compete on, the fraction will be probably greater than 10%. Still, is going to be fractional reserve. Do you think it should be prohibited?
That doesn't sound like advocating for freedom.

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September 27, 2011, 07:39:52 AM
 #279

I understand that, hoarding causes deflation.

Not exactly. An increase in hoarding, ceteris paribus, will lead to price deflation. But there's absolute no reason why a constant amount of hoarding (as, say, percentage of income) should lead to price deflation, since the amount of money in circulation stays the same.
I don't get it. If someone hoards a fixed percentage of his income, the amount of money in circulation is getting smaller and smaller.

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deflation devalues real capital

I must confess, that i'm slightly puzzled. What does that exactly mean. Decreased physical output of real capital? Hardly.
No. I mean the price of the capital is being reduced and also its nominal yields (assuming the percentual capital yield remains constant).

(And what is the *un-real* capital, for that matter).
Money-capital. The money yield (interest) doesn't procude anything real.

A decreased return on investment? Well, I don't know. The monetary return can be lower but the costs of operating and replacing the capital will also be lower. (As for past costs those are always sunken costs.)
Yes, in my example, the baker will buy his supplies cheaper and could also maintain his standart of living with a lower wage, but the interest he's paying for the loan stays the same. Also, if for years he only pays the interest and then sells his capital to pay the principal of the loan, his nominally devalued bakery won't pay the principal of the loan.

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and that doesn't encourage investments.

Let me put it that way. There is a current consumption fund and there is a investment fund which is equal to total production - current consumption fund. Anything which increases the investment fund encourages investments.
So if I hoard 200,000 bricks in my house that's going to investment?
You can save without investing. Your production - consumption = investment formula is wrong.
I would say prodction - consumption = potential investment.

And if you think that price deflation encourages savings and think that investments are good thing you should hail price deflation. Because it increases the investment fund. And that's, what investment's are made from.
1) Not all what is saved is invested.
2) Deflation makes money-capital more desirable in relation to real capital, but money-capital doesn't produce anything if it isn't invested/lent.

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The thing you fail to see is that money is a common. You're holding it now, but it belongs to the whole society because it is an abstract good, an agreement. The money you hold could be worth nothing overnight if society decides so.
So the way people saves should be the way that the society benefits more, and that's not hoarding.

No, I no do not see money as a common. As a tool which allows us to coordinate our activites and extend cooperation between people, yes, as something belonging to some kind of mythical Geia, no. The mythical Geia, is, well, mythical, and for exactly that reason she cannot own anything.
Sorry, I don't know the myth. But what I mean is that how money is used affects everyone and not only its current holder. And money is "created" by the whole society. No one can "create" money if others are not willing to accept it. The total money belongs in some sense to the whole society and it can decide what rules apply to it.

I can accept the "society benifits more" as a shortcut for most people want (will benefit from) more goods, and I agree that the way to having more goods is to have more (successful) investments.
Agreed.

But there's absolutely no harm in some people just "hoarding". And I've already explained why.
The main problem I see with hoarding is not the deflation it causes. The posibility of hoarding for free, that free insurance (a service that the rest of society provides) is what causes interest. Inflation doesn't helps because:

1) Eventually the loss will be factored in loans in form of inflation premium, because the lender can just acquire real capital to avoid that loss.
2) It distorts our previous formula: it creates the illusion that we've saved more than we actually had.

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
vrotaru
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September 27, 2011, 08:39:11 PM
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I don't get it. If someone hoards a fixed percentage of his income, the amount of money in circulation is getting smaller and smaller.

Well, maybe I could have said it better. The only reason to save money is for spending it at later date. So for every 10 (20) hoarders who do not spend right now, there's an ex-hoarder who just now spending, spending, spending.  Then he will start "hoarding" again, and someone else will spend. That is what I had in mind when speaking about a "constant rate of hoarding".

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No. I mean the price of the capital is being reduced and also its nominal yields (assuming the percentual capital yield remains constant).

And the problem is? While it may be only half of the old price but every coin can buy now twice as much.

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Yes, in my example, the baker will buy his supplies cheaper and could also maintain his standart of living with a lower wage, but the interest he's paying for the loan stays the same. Also, if for years he only pays the interest and then sells his capital to pay the principal of the loan, his nominally devalued bakery won't pay the principal of the loan.

I'd say you should qualify your "Deflation is bad". Namely, deflation is bad for entrepreneurs/investors who heavily rely on loans,  and especially those cannot learn neither from thought experiments nor experience. Also if everybody expects price deflation even a lower percent become more attractive for lenders. Especially if those are long-time savers.

Call me an optimist, but I really do think that people will learn. If a project is worth starting purely from investor savings then there is a loan percent at which it worth starting from loans. And only foolish investors... but that's obvious.

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So if I hoard 200,000 bricks in my house that's going to investment?

Now, that was funny. No, that's not investment. But if you sell the bricks and keep the money, the price of bricks will go down and investors needing bricks will get them cheaper and this way you'll have more investments.

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1) Not all what is saved is invested.
2) Deflation makes money-capital more desirable in relation to real capital, but money-capital doesn't produce anything if it isn't invested/lent.

1) And there's no need for it. Saving (as in "hoarding") can pull out of circulation a certain amount of money, but it will not pull out of circulation the produced goods. The one which were already sold by savers.
2) No money-capital doesn't produce anything. But... Money hold as capital (uninvested), lowers the prices of goods for money which is invested and makes the investment money more productive.

Enough, I think. The other points are either minor disagreements, or, IMHO, will add little.
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