Downward trend imminent

[bitcon]

i'm thinking ASIC miners are just going to fill the gap left by all GPU miners calling it quits....

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[S3052]

Overall, all those nuances about block halving, difficulty changes, mining issues, etc. are already all prices into the charts. It is far easier to predict price movements based on chart patterns and indicators than speculating for years about all those fuzzy factors.

No they're not, due to asymetric information and investors driven mainly by emotions. Also vast majority of investors don't run around with a calculator and market analysis formulas. Chart patterns and indicators are mostly a combination of bullshit and crowd psychology. Both of which are unrelieble as fuck. Long story short, the perfect market is a myth, because market is a sum of investors' actions. Investors are humans and humans are far from perfect.

You just made the case why charts are the key to market prediction. Human herding.

And thanks for your very polite attitude.

[Ente]

Overall, all those nuances about block halving, difficulty changes, mining issues, etc. are already all prices into the charts. It is far easier to predict price movements based on chart patterns and indicators than speculating for years about all those fuzzy factors.

No they're not, due to asymetric information and investors driven mainly by emotions. Also vast majority of investors don't run around with a calculator and market analysis formulas. Chart patterns and indicators are mostly a combination of bullshit and crowd psychology. Both of which are unrelieble as fuck. Long story short, the perfect market is a myth, because market is a sum of investors' actions. Investors are humans and humans are far from perfect.

You are right when watching normal sized groups, the kind we see every day.
You are wrong when watching huge groups. Several thousand people, all having the same goal (sell for profit), having the same few options (buy, sell)? Crowd par excellence. ..And then have a closer look at the market theories: Wave theory doesn't seem to be oversimplifying to me..

Ente

[Yuhfhrh]

Overall, all those nuances about block halving, difficulty changes, mining issues, etc. are already all prices into the charts. It is far easier to predict price movements based on chart patterns and indicators than speculating for years about all those fuzzy factors.

No they're not, due to asymetric information and investors driven mainly by emotions. Also vast majority of investors don't run around with a calculator and market analysis formulas. Chart patterns and indicators are mostly a combination of bullshit and crowd psychology. Both of which are unrelieble as fuck. Long story short, the perfect market is a myth, because market is a sum of investors' actions. Investors are humans and humans are far from perfect.

You are right when watching normal sized groups, the kind we see every day.
You are wrong when watching huge groups. Several thousand people, all having the same goal (sell for profit), having the same few options (buy, sell)? Crowd par excellence. ..And then have a closer look at the market theories: Wave theory doesn't seem to be oversimplifying to me..

Ente

Good to see I don't need to send you the email I was writing summarizing what just happened lol

[Domrada]

So when is this downtrend happening? I would really like to buy some cheap coins...

[Ente]

Good to see I don't need to send you the email I was writing summarizing what just happened lol

It's awful! For days I check the stats even more often than normally! :-)

Thank you for remembering me! I already sleep/work/live more relaxed, since subscribing to your alert service!
For everyone else:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=117427.0

Ente

[kokojie]

So when is this downtrend happening? I would really like to buy some cheap coins...

It's happening as we speak, 2 weeks ago we were at low $13, now we are at high $11. But as I said in the 3rd post, it'll take several months to play out.

[bitcoinBull]

So when is this downtrend happening? I would really like to buy some cheap coins...

It's happening as we speak, 2 weeks ago we were at low $13, now we are at high $11. But as I said in the 3rd post, it'll take several months to play out.

The longer we go sideways, the less chance we'll see a downturn. So far, seems pretty sticky around $12 (the new $5).

[keewee]

There has certainly been a slight downtrend since early in the month but it looks like it might have levelled off a bit. The next couple of weeks will be telling, I think.

 

[Ente]

There has certainly been a slight downtrend since early in the month but it looks like it might have levelled off a bit. The next couple of weeks will be telling, I think.

"Couple of weeks"? I can't believe there will be that long stable periods in the near future.. This is Bitcoin, after all! :-)
The only time I remember any stability (pricewise) at all was when bitcoinica and then later maybe pirate stabilized the price..

*waiting for the weekend*

Ente

[keewee]

There has certainly been a slight downtrend since early in the month but it looks like it might have levelled off a bit. The next couple of weeks will be telling, I think.

"Couple of weeks"? I can't believe there will be that long stable periods in the near future.. This is Bitcoin, after all! :-)
The only time I remember any stability (pricewise) at all was when bitcoinica and then later maybe pirate stabilized the price..

*waiting for the weekend*

Ente

I didn't mean a couple of weeks of level price, oh god no! This is Bitcoin after all 
By "telling" I meant whether we see a couple more weeks of this downtrend, or whether it hooks back up into its previous uptrend

[molecular]

GLBSE was a huge part of bitcoin usage, tons of bitcoin were deposited with them. Now they are gone, and once
users get their coin back, they have no where to put them, there are currently no viable GLBSE alternative.
Many user will likely to sell their coins for cash. The price has already crashed from $12 to $11, even when no
user has gotten their coin back yet, now imagine the price crash when the users get their coins back.

I don't think so.

[mb300sd]

If $12 is the new $5, get ready to see $20 soon

[S3052]

There has certainly been a slight downtrend since early in the month but it looks like it might have levelled off a bit. The next couple of weeks will be telling, I think.

"Couple of weeks"? I can't believe there will be that long stable periods in the near future.. This is Bitcoin, after all! :-)
The only time I remember any stability (pricewise) at all was when bitcoinica and then later maybe pirate stabilized the price..

*waiting for the weekend*

Ente

+1. There will be an end of the stability quite soon.

[kokojie]

GLBSE users has been starting to get their coins back now, it'll be interesting to see if their action is what I predicted (sell their coins for cash). If they do sell, we should see low $11 quite soon, and it'll trigger another round of selling, that'll bring us to $10 and possibly below.

[Isokivi]

And the usual FUD starts.

As I see it, GLBSE is a minor part of the Bitcoin economy as a whole and can't and certainly will not affect any even-slightly-longer term trends in any way. In the short term it's a good excuse to spark a healthy correction though, that's for sure.

Thus far the only actual applications for GLBSE have been mining, loans, rarely anything else. Nefario had plans for other stuff but never got there. I've been known to underestimate the effect of events though, so maybe I'm wrong. Regardless, I see the closure of GLBSE as a smaller thing than Pirate and the market recovered very well from that, didn't it?

Also, GLBSE does have an alternative called MPEX. That is afaik much more legitimate anyway, there are actually some requirements to get listed over there. GLBSE was a loose cannon and had no diversity, I never even registered. Hopefully something better comes in the future.

+1
I always considered glbse a liability and at most had 5% of my funds in there... at the time "it hit the fan" I had 0 shares and 0 satoshi's in there. Im pretty sure the average bitcoin user out there is at least as cautious as I am.

[Vandroiy]

The only time I remember any stability (pricewise) at all was when bitcoinica and then later maybe pirate stabilized the price..

Stabilized?

Well, Bitcoinica blowing money toward conservative speculators may have stabilized against short-term volatility. But generally, leverage mania wasn't much help for stability. Remember the spike below 2 USD? Bitcoinica. Remember the flash crash? Bitcoinica. Remember the spike up right afterward? Bitcoinica. Their users were leveraged way over their head for extended periods of time, I remember it all too well how one had to use Bitcoinica's hedging balance to estimate actual liquidity.

Not going to comment on Pirate.

The time of stability this spring was after a lot of maniac speculators had been burnt, and most Bitcoiners had sane expectations about price. There just weren't many people speculating on "To the moon tomorrow" or "ZOMG crash". Also, wild movements transfer money to those who stabilize. Thus, the extreme swings before might also have helped.

[kokojie]

GLBSE users has been starting to get their coins back now, it'll be interesting to see if their action is what I predicted (sell their coins for cash). If they do sell, we should see low $11 quite soon, and it'll trigger another round of selling, that'll bring us to $10 and possibly below.

well here comes low $11, price will probably stabilize for a few days at this level, and then another leg down to $10s

[mobodick]

GLBSE users has been starting to get their coins back now, it'll be interesting to see if their action is what I predicted (sell their coins for cash). If they do sell, we should see low $11 quite soon, and it'll trigger another round of selling, that'll bring us to $10 and possibly below.

well here comes low $11, price will probably stabilize for a few days at this level, and then another leg down to $10s

I hope for a correction so i see it as cheap coins atm

[kokojie]

GLBSE users has been starting to get their coins back now, it'll be interesting to see if their action is what I predicted (sell their coins for cash). If they do sell, we should see low $11 quite soon, and it'll trigger another round of selling, that'll bring us to $10 and possibly below.

well here comes low $11, price will probably stabilize for a few days at this level, and then another leg down to $10s

I hope for a correction so i see it as cheap coins atm

Your best shot for cheap coins was when it went below $3 earlier this year. This down trend won't go much below $10, I would say $8 is the absolute bottom. Unless something really bad happens.