Bitcoin Forum

GLBSE was a huge part of bitcoin usage, tons of bitcoin were deposited with them. Now they are gone, and once
users get their coin back, they have no where to put them, there are currently no viable GLBSE alternative.
Many user will likely to sell their coins for cash. The price has already crashed from $12 to $11, even when no
user has gotten their coin back yet, now imagine the price crash when the users get their coins back.

That depends on what you see as downward trend, you mean mid term?

for 3-4 months is what I see. Might go as low as $7-8 range, then stabilize to $10 level.

And the usual FUD starts.

As I see it, GLBSE is a minor part of the Bitcoin economy as a whole and can't and certainly will not affect any even-slightly-longer term trends in any way. In the short term it's a good excuse to spark a healthy correction though, that's for sure.

Thus far the only actual applications for GLBSE have been mining, loans, rarely anything else. Nefario had plans for other stuff but never got there. I've been known to underestimate the effect of events though, so maybe I'm wrong. Regardless, I see the closure of GLBSE as a smaller thing than Pirate and the market recovered very well from that, didn't it?

Also, GLBSE does have an alternative called MPEX. That is afaik much more legitimate anyway, there are actually some requirements to get listed over there. GLBSE was a loose cannon and had no diversity, I never even registered. Hopefully something better comes in the future.

Let it drop. I like picking up cheap coins.

Theymos said he thinks there are 4000-8000 coins of deposits at GLBSE. So... bitcoin market-wise, nothing really.

Anyone who sells now is just playing into the hands of those who are forcing the market down to get cheap coins.   Selling now is more risky than holding I think.   There may be a bit further it can fall, but long term, aside from the government making an announcement that they are actively going to go after bitcoin, there is only one direction to go.

People keep trying to apply the same logic to bitcoin as they would to stocks etc.   We have never seen anything like bitcoin, it does not follow the same rules, or it would already be dead.   The ONLY reason to keep fear-mongering on the boards is to try and incite hysteria.   I am getting tired of it . . .

GLBSE is only a small part of bitcoin usage, nothing even remotely close to what BTCST was.   Why would it have a greater effect on the market?

The downfall is mostly all speculation as well, and increases that were expected are also speculation. 

It goes both ways. The closure of GLBSE is an excuse by bearish speculators to purchase coins at a cheaper price, hence why you see a building wall at $11.7.  They want to force the price down to that level, wait for the price to then go back up and sell it off as a profit.

It's a combination of GLBSE news and the weekend dip IMO, but will it trigger a sell-off?

I hate to break it to you guys... but 11.70 is defiantly not the true bottom.
we're looking at a full blown collapse of bitcoin's value.

Let it tank. There's now an ever larger number of people that will buy in if it hits $5-$7-$9 again.

I'm calling the bottom at $9.50

Again what do you mean by that? Sounds like the usual Death Of Bitcoin™.
(That means below last years low of 1.99)

Full blow? Who cares? We will be there to profit.
None of us believe bitcoin will ever die, nor that it is useless.
As speculator (0,3% mtgox) I just love this kind of dips and ups.
In the LONG TERM we all believe in BTC price, but in the short term, its all fun!!!
Join the joyride!!!.

I would bet anyone that we touch $18 before we get under $6.5 if we ever get there again, but righ now I believe that we can go as low as $10,80's.

Could anyone share, once again, a graphic weekday based trend for the last 5 month? or perhaps point me to somewere...

Did you mean from near $13 to under $12?  

https://i.imgur.com/7feRN.png


Also, ... "crash"?    A ten to fifteen percent dip over a weekend when no banks transfers can be made  is not unheard of in these here parts.

Near $13 is 12
under $12 is 11

+1

It's a bank holiday in the US today right? So nothing too surprising here considering the GLBSE news, the indicator will be late tomorrow/Wednesday, which way will it go then.......

Thats when I will buy :)

But Im not sure if will drop to that. I honestly believe when difficultly raises we will see it raise. Then people may dump to pay off their rigs, and lowering it. But who knows..

and it begins. pseudo-rally after $15 bubble burst was clearly a bulltrap. we are already in a downward trend from the high of $15.

reward halving to 25@ block 210,000. going to be a lot less coins available.  I can see us hitting $20 soon.

The 7,000 coins per day are pathetic compared to the over 10 million already here.

so we will produce 3600 less coins per day, which is like 10% of the daily volume just on mtgox, not to mention all the volume combined elsewhere, so it's not going to have any major effect on the price. At most we will go up 10% from whatever stable price the market will settle at.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/low_volume_pullback.asp#axzz29KOouKNx

we were here last week

Absolutely.
It was shown several times that mining or difficulty has no effect on price. The other way is true.

Ente

You mean that the price went up on low volume, right? So the trend is down?

Yup.

>hurr durr bitcoin is about to crash, hurr durr blah blah blah
*yawn*
it's the same bullshit over and over again. everytime the price falls this FUD carousel starts and then after a few days, the price rebounds - contrary to all oh-we-are-doomed prophecies.
again, the reason for the recent fall is purely psychological. GLBSE down? don't make me laugh. as far as I know, GLBSE was almost exclusively about investing in mining projects and ponzi schemes (mainly PPT) if you want to invest in mining projects, just browse the mining sub-fora of BitcoinTalk and you'll find plenty of oportunities. if you want to lose money in ponzi schemes or other scams, you'll find plenty of opportunities in the lending subfora. also the market capitalization of GLBSE was small, contrary to what you might think. again, GLBSE isn't NYSE or NASDAQ. GLBSE is more like a shitty local wannabe stock exchange and its function can be fully replaced by public forums.

but go ahead and sell some more. should the price fall under $10, i'll start buying en masse.

Nope. I don't think many believe the long-term trend is down. Many believe the long-term (aka years) trend is "sky", "moon" and then some more. Still, several things point to price going down *short term*. Just because the price surely will be up in a matter of weeks again, doesn't mean it can't "crash" some dozen percent for some days. On a long enough timescale this is noise. Noise I plan to profit on.


Yes, GLBSE was relatively small, between 5k and 8k BTC I read. Which translates to "no direct influence on the price". Still, GLBSE didn't make the volume go lower and lower for weeks, for example. There is more up now than just GLBSE.

Ente

I concur.


Yes, GLBSE was relatively small, between 5k and 8k BTC I read. Which translates to "no direct influence on the price". Still, GLBSE didn't make the volume go lower and lower for weeks, for example. There is more up now than just GLBSE.

Ente
[/quote]
In that case I'd like to know what caused the volume to go lower. Any problems on SR? Bad publicity (due to Pirate being investigated by the SEC for example)? Truth be told BTC is still concentrated in the USA so it's hard for me to stay informed, especially when it comes to public sentiment.

Possibly related?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=87094.msg1273569#msg1273569

10k btc is significant volume being moved away from gox where it would effect the price...

I would say there are around 40k BTC volume less per day than would be, don't know, stable, healthy, good..
At least it used to be more around 50k average daily, instead of as low as 10k now.

Ente

If you look at trading volume in USD it should look more 'healthy'.  When BTC goes to 10, people only need half as many to continue making transactions that they were making at 5.

Good point!
That's what you get from stareing too much at those charts.. ;-)
Funny how much it might influence you which charttype, which webpage you use!

Ente

That doesn't seem a reasonable thing to do though. If price goes to 1000000 USD and volume to 2 Bitcoins per day, does the similarly high volume in USD justify the price?

The amount of Bitcoins doesn't shrink just because price is higher. Bitcoin volume shows volume relative to current market cap, and that one went down. As a relative measure for volume, Bitcoin volume is the one to look at.

I agree that volume should not stay as high as, say, in February, but the recent drop in volume was a little fast IMO.

but you do see value increasing as opposed to the speculation of the OP.  If more miners decide to hold instead of pump and dump, and BTC demand increases during the reward half, there could be a drastic increase in value.  we shall see. for now i will remain a long term bull.

"imminent?" I'll hold for now sell anywhere above $12.63, and start buying in @ $6, and all the way down to $1.17.

The big hashers will be wanting to sell once ASIC comes online to recover outlay costs I would think. It's going to be interesting. Imagine you laid out 30k+ for a BFL rig only to have the difficulty go vertical, the block reward halve, and the price go down. If you could manipulate the market it would be crafty/evil to dump at the halving. A lot of people would buy because "omg less coins are being made" and miners would be pressed to get what they could.

Overall, all those nuances about block halving, difficulty changes, mining issues, etc. are already all prices into the charts. It is far easier to predict price movements based on chart patterns and indicators than speculating for years about all those fuzzy factors.

No they're not, due to asymetric information and investors driven mainly by emotions. Also vast majority of investors don't run around with a calculator and market analysis formulas. Chart patterns and indicators are mostly a combination of bullshit and crowd psychology. Both of which are unrelieble as fuck. Long story short, the perfect market is a myth, because market is a sum of investors' actions. Investors are humans and humans are far from perfect.

i'm thinking ASIC miners are just going to fill the gap left by all GPU miners calling it quits....

You just made the case why charts are the key to market prediction. Human herding.

And thanks for your very polite attitude.

You are right when watching normal sized groups, the kind we see every day.
You are wrong when watching huge groups. Several thousand people, all having the same goal (sell for profit), having the same few options (buy, sell)? Crowd par excellence. ..And then have a closer look at the market theories: Wave theory doesn't seem to be oversimplifying to me..

Ente

Good to see I don't need to send you the email I was writing summarizing what just happened lol

So when is this downtrend happening? I would really like to buy some cheap coins...

It's awful! For days I check the stats even more often than normally! :-)

Thank you for remembering me! I already sleep/work/live more relaxed, since subscribing to your alert service!
For everyone else:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=117427.0

Ente

It's happening as we speak, 2 weeks ago we were at low $13, now we are at high $11. But as I said in the 3rd post, it'll take several months to play out.

The longer we go sideways, the less chance we'll see a downturn. So far, seems pretty sticky around $12 (the new $5).

There has certainly been a slight downtrend since early in the month but it looks like it might have levelled off a bit. The next couple of weeks will be telling, I think.

 https://i.imgur.com/biVq9.jpg

"Couple of weeks"? I can't believe there will be that long stable periods in the near future.. This is Bitcoin, after all! :-)
The only time I remember any stability (pricewise) at all was when bitcoinica and then later maybe pirate stabilized the price..

*waiting for the weekend*

Ente

I didn't mean a couple of weeks of level price, oh god no! This is Bitcoin after all  :)
By "telling" I meant whether we see a couple more weeks of this downtrend, or whether it hooks back up into its previous uptrend

I don't think so.

If $12 is the new $5, get ready to see $20 soon ;D

+1. There will be an end of the stability quite soon.

GLBSE users has been starting to get their coins back now, it'll be interesting to see if their action is what I predicted (sell their coins for cash). If they do sell, we should see low $11 quite soon, and it'll trigger another round of selling, that'll bring us to $10 and possibly below.

+1
I always considered glbse a liability and at most had 5% of my funds in there... at the time "it hit the fan" I had 0 shares and 0 satoshi's in there. Im pretty sure the average bitcoin user out there is at least as cautious as I am.

Stabilized? ???

Well, Bitcoinica blowing money toward conservative speculators may have stabilized against short-term volatility. But generally, leverage mania wasn't much help for stability. Remember the spike below 2 USD? Bitcoinica. Remember the flash crash? Bitcoinica. Remember the spike up right afterward? Bitcoinica. Their users were leveraged way over their head for extended periods of time, I remember it all too well how one had to use Bitcoinica's hedging balance to estimate actual liquidity.

Not going to comment on Pirate.

The time of stability this spring was after a lot of maniac speculators had been burnt, and most Bitcoiners had sane expectations about price. There just weren't many people speculating on "To the moon tomorrow" or "ZOMG crash". Also, wild movements transfer money to those who stabilize. Thus, the extreme swings before might also have helped.

well here comes low $11, price will probably stabilize for a few days at this level, and then another leg down to $10s

I hope for a correction so i see it as cheap coins atm :)

Your best shot for cheap coins was when it went below $3 earlier this year. This down trend won't go much below $10, I would say $8 is the absolute bottom. Unless something really bad happens.

Hehe.,., there is cheap coin and there is cheap coin.
Agree with your assessment btw.
Maybe $8 is a bit too low but i think the max bottom is below $10.

• Gox USD price never was below 3 USD this year.
• Wow @ predicting the peaks of Bitcoin price movement with accuracy on the order of 10%. :o

It's Bitcoin. IMO we could all be off by a factor and suddenly end up at 30 or 0.6, both numbers we've already seen in the last two years.

Normally i would agree, but i have identified a systemic bottom to bitcoin.
see: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=113725.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=113725.0)

I highly doubt that we will see $5 coins again, ever. But that's just my humble opinion. Unless confidence in Bitcoin itself (the protocol, or the reference client's implementation of it) is impacted. I actually think $11 is quite low (current price is $11.06 as of this writing).

I'm planning on spending the rest of my Mt. Gox balance ($140) on $11 coins right now. But price seems to be dropping right now, so I might wait a bit.

EDIT: Just bought 12.84 BTC for $142.

Cut to price crashing to $8 :D

It seems like the down into rising selling volume is becoming entrenched, with some relatively large sales going through on down slides.

It is indicative of saturation, i.e. the huge rate of inflation of bitcoin, currently ~25%, has finally caught up to what has actually been until now a phenomenal rate of adoption. It seems that the scheduled halving of bitcoin inflation rate in 5,000 blocks can not come a moment too soon, although it too is probably throwing uncertainty over the market.

But in the meantime I can see a powerful selling down, perhaps revisiting the hard floor at cost-of-production (around $4) but may go as low as $2.5 depending on how much pain the new ASIC miners can handle with their cost of capital for shiny new hardware, i.e. will they keep pumping bitcoins at a loss or rather buy at the market?

Anyway, look out below is my advice.

With ASIC, there is only very tiny cost of production, since the cost is mostly upfront. The cost of ongoing production is less than $1.00 per BTC, so the ASIC miners don't really lose money, they just take longer to break even, there's no reason for them to turn off their machine ever.

I keep seeing this sentiment all over the forums. the cost of ongoing production is less than $1.00 per BTC right now. That will change very quickly as more miners get ASIC. the switch to ASIC will be much the same as the switch from CPU to GPU. The deployment will take longer because miners don't have ASICs sitting in their computers already, but the amount of hashing power is going to explode. Remember, there are a finite # of blocks to be found. Think of it as an arms race. Yes, if you're the first person on the battlefield with a gattling gun, you're going to greatly increase the effectiveness of your army. But sooner or later (and in the case of ASIC, sooner) your enemy will get gattling guns too and the cost of war will go up.

If there is a flood of ASIC bitcoin's trying to get sold.... well then this is going to be the best buying optionality you'll get in a long time... Wait-out with your cash sitting on the exchanges...  soon after the difficulty shoots right up.... start buying.

If that's the cost of making a bitcoin then people are insane to buy them for $10+ right now.


The first people with ASICs are going to make a killing.  Anyone receiving their ASIC a week or so later is going to spend many months paying it off.  The window for fat profits is literally only a few days before the hash rate skyrockets.  BFL sending orders out will be a true popcorn moment for bitcoin. 

Pressure to sell bitcoins to recover ASIC costs will be intense.  Graphics cards can be used for gaming, scientific computing or sold on eBay for someone else to do the same.  Bitcoin ASICs have only one use and it'll be a huge race to the bottom to recover costs.

sub $1 is the cost to produce bitcoin once you have the equipment, but the initial investment is quite high, you have to estimate how long it will take to break even. I think most people will see 1-2 years as acceptable, though I think realistically we will be looking at 2-3 years once competition gets intense. At that time there would be another halving, so all bets are off again. I don't expect ASIC owners to really make that much money in the long run.

Edit: Price down to 10.6.

$1 for production cost is only for few countries: assuming a 7X in difficulty at the start of ASIC era I got a energy cost in the range $1,00-2.8 from USA to EU country. Plus the $1200-1600 (again price are different from country to country) of RIG to repay that charge another $2.5-$3 to the stat calculating a 1yr ROI and no more ASIC sold.
With ASIC production cost is the $3.5-6 range, but 8-9 is more realistic

I just think that GLBSE turning out to be another scam* coming from a (ex-) highly trusted member of the community, has shattered the trust of many small-amount investors. Also the subsequent fingerpointing game is involving some admins and moderators, which in turn are losing their patience and banning long time members. All of this leaves some bitter feeling that will take some time to heal.

By "small-amount investors" I'm referring to the kind of computer-savvy type that understands how bitcoin works and would see in it a chance to make fast money due to fiat value of bitcoin increasing. Well, I expect most of the people in bitcoin world by now to be in for the chances of profit rather than for the anarchist/save-the world-from-the-evil-banking-system ideas.

So I think that those investors are giving up on their dreams of getting rich through bitcoin, and selling en-masse.
IMO this is just a blip in the life of bitcoin, but the price is mostly fuelled by mass psychology so there's still the risk of a chain reaction.

Also IMO this confidence crash is a good learning experience for the bitcoin community, because it creates awareness and helps preventing disasters of such a high magnitude from happening in the future.

* you can have different opinion on this - James still has a scammer tag 'tho.

Lol
You make it sound as if BTC/USD was down 80% from one week before!
This is totally normal Bitcoin-behavior, those swings are just more rare than last year. Which is 98% pure speculation driven anyway. ..Which brings me to question your motives for your long post: FUD? How many $ are waiting on your Gox? :-P

Ente

/enjoying rollercoaster

FUD, not really. Just contributing my analysis to the discussion, maybe it is valuable to someone :)

In fairness I'm skinned for cash this month so I can't invest in more bitcoins. In my situation, it is in my personal interest for bitcoins to skyrocket not plunge. And as I wrote, I'm confident this is just a blip.

Still, 10% of USD value lost in two weeks is a considerable amount, depending on the scale of your investment, of course.

Last year the daily movement was 10-20%. At least in my memory. Kind of helps digesting "blips".

Wanna bet? ;)

I have a very hard time imagining even $5 coins. 10 BTC escrowed bet that the price won't reach $4 within the next 6 months?

That's easy. (No I won't bet though)
If you consider the possibility that all three ASIC mining companies turn out to be scams there is even a straight-forward explanation for such a scenario. In that case even sub-dollar prices might be possible.

If they deliver I don't think we will go below ~5 however.

You may be right but the logic behind this is beyond me. But more price swings have disagreed with my reasoning I have to admit.

Care to explain why all 3 turning out scams would move the rate down that drastically (or at all for that matter)?

ASIC investors seeling their BTCs to repay the loans in fiat they originally got to fill in their pre-orders?
Depressed people dumping all their BTCs and embracing new religions due to utter loss of trust in the bitcoin world?

(all of these being temporary phenomena and at the same time a great chance to buy).

EuroTrash already did that for me. :)


The main reason I would see this as so dramatic the people who would be affected by this would be those who invested the most into bitcoin. They are the people who also already own alot of Bitcoin since many of them are miners. And finally the reaction of the general public would be dramatic as if major business in this economy cannot be trusted who can you trust.

Take a loan to invest into ASIC mining hardware that might never be delivered?!? That's just reckless! People are doing that? People that have BTC?

People being depressed, I can see that. But that's not going to be people that have much Bitium to begin with, so it won't be a huge dump down to the sub-dollar area.

"Trust in Bitcoin deteriorating" is the only reason I can think of, really. And that trust is pretty much at the bottom already so it wouldn't have huge effect in my mind.

Also: think of all the GPU miners and gamer-dudes. They'll be all "hoooray - let's by all the coins" by your logic.

The people that already own a lot of bitcoin selling off is a good thing imo: distributes more coins from early adopters to the masses. Let it happen. I doubt it, though... These people have "lived through" the "depression of Fall 2011", they will live through "ASIC fail" just fine.

Again: the general public already thinks bitcoins is just one huge fractal scam.

Still it would get the prices down, at least as long as the drama unfolds after which the price can rise again.


Then why are you still here?
SELL SELL SELL!  ::)

Seriously if that were true, there would be no possible way for BTC to ever reach old highs again.

So has the imminent downward trend been called off? Mtgoxlive seems pretty optimistic to me...

It's OK. Let the admiration of my almost prophet-like prediction begin:


As far as I can count, there are at least 5 alleged Bitcoin mining ASICs being developed.

• BFL
• bASIC (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=79637.300#msg1157524)
• DeepBit "Reclaimer" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=108375.0;all)
• Block Erupter (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91173.0;all)
• Avalon (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=120184.0)

Well, if you consider the peak that happened around the beginning of october then we are still in a downward trend.
What you see now is a rebound from the recent sell-off.

What is a 'fractal scam' ?

self-perpetuating possibly?

a scam that consists of many smaller subscams, which in turn consist of many smaller subscams,....

Because I'm not the general public.


Why can't the general public change its mind?

Psht. I had the pound do that on me a couple of years back. It still hasn't recovered though. I also had property in the UK so double busted :(

Edit: My mistake, it was 20%. Frikkin' Gordon Brown...

Thats reassuring actually.

The general public probably thinks a fractal is one of them funny pictures where you cross your eyes and see a boat.

I wouldn't count Block Erupter since there are no actual Devices sold, just the hashing power. Out of all these that one is the most likely to be a scam, I would even call it likely.
The other guys: Short of some sort of widely unknown and already existing SHA-2 ASIC which all is the basis for their devices I cannot see how they can all deliver. If that were the case the thing will quickly escalate in terms of prices of these devices. Competition would explode up to the point where they are sold at a single-digit percent markup.

But in the prospect of this many guys among a them the most prominent pool operation in on this, for the sake of Bitcoin I really hope it's no scam...As I said before in another thread: If BFL turns out to be a scam it is likely that all of them are scams since they were first. There is nothing to debate about it though, the only thing we can do is see and wait.

One thing is certain: It will be epic, either in terms of the frenzy or the drama and it could make or break bitcoin.

Pyramining are developing their own asics as well

So what price should they buy them for? :)

It is not the cost of producing something that matters. It's the price at which a seller will sell it.

By your logic, if the cost of producing a coin was $100, are you saying the price would need to be $110?  I think if the cost was $100 per coin, people would stop mining, but the market price of coins on the market would be well below $100.

Or, put it another way, what's the cost of dredging up 1 kilogram of deep sea mud and bringing it to market? $10? $100? $1000?  I'm not sure how expensive that is, but it's expensive. And yet, I wouldn't pay a dollar for it, and neither would you.

When figuring out the proper price of something, you'd do well to almost entirely ignore the production cost. Production cost will tend to follow the market price, not the other way around.

Production costs matter because of competition. And the mining market is highly competitive, though not as competitive as it could be.
Of course with the infamous example of deep sea mud, competition can only take place within the realm of demand. Given a certain demand more competition to fill the demand results in lower prices and verse visa.

However since Bitcoin is not prone to consumption like for example gold or grain it's cumulative production cost are what ultimately matter. There is the factor of lost coins which will limit that influence in the future but currently that influence is just marginal.
Another factor and that is what ultimately is the reason for bitcoins volatility is the demand for bitcoin is expressed not in the absolute value on a individual basis but the fraction of total and currently existing coins.

There are as many upward trends as there are downward ones anyway.

https://i.imgur.com/6icw6.png

Now that's a dump!

Utterly unimpressive.

Only half the time, tho..