A Simple Gambling Trick

[StevenLiang]

What is the probability that the bombs in the boxes wont be shuffled ? Though this seems to be a good idea but I dont think the website owner will keep the same algorithams if everyone keeps on winning .Probably after reading this post ,he might have already changed his algorithams .

I think it have changed already, after the trick been world wide spread 

Of course.
And there are no static strategy for "random gambling" like minesweeper.

Sometimes it looks like you always can win with "some" strategies. But in hours later you will have losing streak with that strategy.
My suggestion is, when you have winning streak, keep playing until you start to lose first 4 bet.

And do wd.

[Xenoph0bia]

There are no real tricks by which you can earn more money by gambling but there are few tricks by using which you can minimize your losses in the gambling. Don't try to win big money in one go for example if you have $ 1000 dollar then don't play with all money in a single session. You can have multiple games or sessions by splitting these $1000 into $200 small games. These increases your winning chances and at least you can recover whatever you are spending.

[jpouza]

There are no real tricks by which you can earn more money by gambling but there are few tricks by using which you can minimize your losses in the gambling. Don't try to win big money in one go for example if you have $ 1000 dollar then don't play with all money in a single session. You can have multiple games or sessions by splitting these $1000 into $200 small games. These increases your winning chances and at least you can recover whatever you are spending.

There is logic in splitting the chances in multiple games instead of one big shot, it is a mathematical relation.

[Light]

There are no real tricks by which you can earn more money by gambling but there are few tricks by using which you can minimize your losses in the gambling. Don't try to win big money in one go for example if you have $ 1000 dollar then don't play with all money in a single session. You can have multiple games or sessions by splitting these $1000 into $200 small games. These increases your winning chances and at least you can recover whatever you are spending.

There is logic in splitting the chances in multiple games instead of one big shot, it is a mathematical relation.

Yeah I remember covering this a couple years back with doog. It's actually pretty logical that reducing bet size reduces potential losses in terms of probability.

Yes.

And you're the first person who responded in such an open manner.

Everyone else just tells me I'm wrong.  

The trick is to split up your bet (the amount you were going to risk in a single bet) into a series of amounts which sum to a the same, and which form a sequence such that you can bet the smallest amount, and if it wins, you make the same as if you bet the whole amount at 49.5% (so you'll be betting with a smaller chance, and higher payout multiplier).  And if it loses, you want betting the 2nd amount to cover the first loss and make the same net profit.  Etc.

If you can find such a sequence (and you always can, though it can involve some hairy math depending on the length of the sequence you're looking for) then the amount you expect to risk is less than your whole amount (since there's a non-zero chance that you will win before the last bet, and stop at that point), and so the amount you expect to lose, being 1% of the amount you risk, is less than when you make the single bet.

Here's a very simple example:

you have 1 BTC and want to double it.

* you could bet it all at 49.5%, and succeed in doubling up with probability 0.495

* or you could bet 0.41421356 BTC at 28.99642866% with payout multiplier 3.41421356x, and if you lose, bet the rest at the same chance.  If you win either bet, you double up, else you lose.  Your chance of doubling up is 0.4958492857 - a little higher than the 0.495 you have with the single bet.

Cool, huh?

That's breaking the single bet up into a sequence of length 2.

If you break it up into more, smaller bets, then the probability of success increases further.

The more steps, the closer to 0.5 your probability of success gets.

You'll be limited by real-life barriers, like the invisibility indivisibility of the satoshi, and the limit of 4 decimal places on the chance at JD.  But in theory you can get arbitrarily close to 0.5.  I think.  

And some quick maths (plus graphing)

I cannot believe I'm saying this but I think you might be right.

I went ahead and played around with a case where the player starts at 1 wants to move to 2 by making two bets (of any size between 0-1 inclusive). Hence I went to go graph the function to see if it was true and I got this:

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/obkfifgbnl

Where y = probability of succeeding
and d = the value of the first initial bet

Notice how at both d = 0 and d= 1 the probability is 0.495 as expected (as you are either betting nothing then 1 or 1 then nothing and both are equivalent cases). And in between you get a probability higher than the 0.495 offered for the single bet.

I've tried a few set values for cases where you split your value up to more than two and you do get a better result. I can only theorise that this is because as your bet size approaches 0 with the number of bets approaching infinity your expectation approaches 1.

However, what I do not understand at the present is why this is so. I almost fell out of my chair when the numbers came out (I checked like 6 times), as it's inferring that you can get better than what the house 'technically' offers. The problem with this is that your expectation is better than just flat betting and logically that doesn't make sense. Both should have the same expectation.

I'm going to mull it over.

I haven't given it a lot of thought beyond this - doog explained it quite elegantly.

When you bet your whole bankroll in a single bet, you expect to lose 1% of it.

When you split it up and bet the pieces in order from smallest to biggest, and stop when any bet wins you often don't end up betting the whole bankroll, and so you expect to lose 1% of less than the whole bankroll.

By splitting it up you reduce the amount you expect to bet, and so you reduce the amount you expect to lose.

[Inkvor]

What is the probability that the bombs in the boxes wont be shuffled ? Though this seems to be a good idea but I dont think the website owner will keep the same algorithams if everyone keeps on winning .Probably after reading this post ,he might have already changed his algorithams .

I think it have changed already, after the trick been world wide spread 

dosent matters if it has been wide spread or not but there is no strategy that can make you win all the time ...
probably it was a bug and it got fixed..

[wearepoor]

There are no real tricks by which you can earn more money by gambling but there are few tricks by using which you can minimize your losses in the gambling. Don't try to win big money in one go for example if you have $ 1000 dollar then don't play with all money in a single session. You can have multiple games or sessions by splitting these $1000 into $200 small games. These increases your winning chances and at least you can recover whatever you are spending.

There is logic in splitting the chances in multiple games instead of one big shot, it is a mathematical relation.

Yes agreed with you. People can follow some rule for  their self, don't play too much in one go, try to play in sessions. Take a break in between two or three games, this will help you to think and keep your mind relaxed so that yo can take correct decisions and avoid the losses. Sometime it can work, many people are already following this.

[jeffthebaker]

I'd be willing to gamble that these "strategies" that are constantly reposted are orchestrated or at least supported by SatoshiBet. I've seen this "guaranteed winning" strategy so many times over the years, and I bet the casino certainly benefits from the exposure of this sure-fired way to win.

[pooya87]

everybody is trying to come up with a magical strategy to start winning in gambling . i am no different though but the sad part is that they will never work.
all these strategies unless there is a bug involved, they are not that usefull because you will end up losing in the long run. you can get lucky for a while and have fun earning but that would not last.

[Betwrong]

everybody is trying to come up with a magical strategy to start winning in gambling . i am no different though but the sad part is that they will never work.
all these strategies unless there is a bug involved, they are not that usefull because you will end up losing in the long run. you can get lucky for a while and have fun earning but that would not last.

You are right but as far as I understand OP is telling us about a bug, no?

Not going to try this because I'm afraid of mines big time. I'm going to have nightmares about mines if I try this. 

[shanem]

everybody is trying to come up with a magical strategy to start winning in gambling . i am no different though but the sad part is that they will never work.
all these strategies unless there is a bug involved, they are not that usefull because you will end up losing in the long run. you can get lucky for a while and have fun earning but that would not last.

There is no trick for gambling unless the thread starter is trying to exploit some bug.
If there is some bug to be exploited, this thread will not exist as he/she will earn btc exploiting without alerting anyone.

[neonshium]

everybody is trying to come up with a magical strategy to start winning in gambling . i am no different though but the sad part is that they will never work.
all these strategies unless there is a bug involved, they are not that usefull because you will end up losing in the long run. you can get lucky for a while and have fun earning but that would not last.

There is no trick for gambling unless the thread starter is trying to exploit some bug.
If there is some bug to be exploited, this thread will not exist as he/she will earn btc exploiting without alerting anyone.

No, there are lot of tricks and methods to win in many type of gambling. But we need to apply a right methodology based on the previous steps and current situations. It means there are lot of possibilities to apply a trick into a gambling. So, in general people say there is no trick available for gambling success.

[SyGambler]

everybody is trying to come up with a magical strategy to start winning in gambling . i am no different though but the sad part is that they will never work.
all these strategies unless there is a bug involved, they are not that usefull because you will end up losing in the long run. you can get lucky for a while and have fun earning but that would not last.

There is no trick for gambling unless the thread starter is trying to exploit some bug.
If there is some bug to be exploited, this thread will not exist as he/she will earn btc exploiting without alerting anyone.

No, there are lot of tricks and methods to win in many type of gambling. But we need to apply a right methodology based on the previous steps and current situations. It means there are lot of possibilities to apply a trick into a gambling. So, in general people say there is no trick available for gambling success.

since you mentioned that I hope that you give us some examples , how you can use methods to win in gambling games
we have discussed this like million times and all agreed that there is no working tricks or methods to win in gambling games ( Except Sports , poker ,skill games ...etc )

[Bitcoin Marketing]

Where is the player to publish his loss

[Superhitech]

Where is the player to publish his loss

I think that OP is ahead right now, but that may not be the case later, as winning games of luck usually only works in the short term.

[cazkooo]

there is no working tricks or methods to win in gambling games

There is alot of working tricks but they will not work if you keep using them for long term so best thing is to play for a while and cashout after you get profit. Martingale for example is a working trick but people like to play with small amount that make them lose in the end because they play for long time

[zeraTunerse]

Yeah there exist some tricks , play in some dice site with your strategy after playing 5-7 minutes cash-out all your winnings as you will loose in next play , the sites have bot which manipulates your methods and next time make a game that defeats your method.

[alay1388]

There are no real tricks by which you can earn more money by gambling but there are few tricks by using which you can minimize your losses in the gambling. Don't try to win big money in one go for example if you have $ 1000 dollar then don't play with all money in a single session. You can have multiple games or sessions by splitting these $1000 into $200 small games. These increases your winning chances and at least you can recover whatever you are spending.

There is logic in splitting the chances in multiple games instead of one big shot, it is a mathematical relation.

Yeah I remember covering this a couple years back with doog. It's actually pretty logical that reducing bet size reduces potential losses in terms of probability.

Yes.

And you're the first person who responded in such an open manner.

Everyone else just tells me I'm wrong.  

The trick is to split up your bet (the amount you were going to risk in a single bet) into a series of amounts which sum to a the same, and which form a sequence such that you can bet the smallest amount, and if it wins, you make the same as if you bet the whole amount at 49.5% (so you'll be betting with a smaller chance, and higher payout multiplier).  And if it loses, you want betting the 2nd amount to cover the first loss and make the same net profit.  Etc.

If you can find such a sequence (and you always can, though it can involve some hairy math depending on the length of the sequence you're looking for) then the amount you expect to risk is less than your whole amount (since there's a non-zero chance that you will win before the last bet, and stop at that point), and so the amount you expect to lose, being 1% of the amount you risk, is less than when you make the single bet.

Here's a very simple example:

you have 1 BTC and want to double it.

* you could bet it all at 49.5%, and succeed in doubling up with probability 0.495

* or you could bet 0.41421356 BTC at 28.99642866% with payout multiplier 3.41421356x, and if you lose, bet the rest at the same chance.  If you win either bet, you double up, else you lose.  Your chance of doubling up is 0.4958492857 - a little higher than the 0.495 you have with the single bet.

Cool, huh?

That's breaking the single bet up into a sequence of length 2.

If you break it up into more, smaller bets, then the probability of success increases further.

The more steps, the closer to 0.5 your probability of success gets.

You'll be limited by real-life barriers, like the invisibility indivisibility of the satoshi, and the limit of 4 decimal places on the chance at JD.  But in theory you can get arbitrarily close to 0.5.  I think.  

And some quick maths (plus graphing)

I cannot believe I'm saying this but I think you might be right.

I went ahead and played around with a case where the player starts at 1 wants to move to 2 by making two bets (of any size between 0-1 inclusive). Hence I went to go graph the function to see if it was true and I got this:

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/obkfifgbnl

Where y = probability of succeeding
and d = the value of the first initial bet

Notice how at both d = 0 and d= 1 the probability is 0.495 as expected (as you are either betting nothing then 1 or 1 then nothing and both are equivalent cases). And in between you get a probability higher than the 0.495 offered for the single bet.

I've tried a few set values for cases where you split your value up to more than two and you do get a better result. I can only theorise that this is because as your bet size approaches 0 with the number of bets approaching infinity your expectation approaches 1.

However, what I do not understand at the present is why this is so. I almost fell out of my chair when the numbers came out (I checked like 6 times), as it's inferring that you can get better than what the house 'technically' offers. The problem with this is that your expectation is better than just flat betting and logically that doesn't make sense. Both should have the same expectation.

I'm going to mull it over.

I haven't given it a lot of thought beyond this - doog explained it quite elegantly.

When you bet your whole bankroll in a single bet, you expect to lose 1% of it.

When you split it up and bet the pieces in order from smallest to biggest, and stop when any bet wins you often don't end up betting the whole bankroll, and so you expect to lose 1% of less than the whole bankroll.

By splitting it up you reduce the amount you expect to bet, and so you reduce the amount you expect to lose.

Many people have loss in gambling because they do not know how to play with % of their bankroll.

[cazkooo]

the sites have bot which manipulates your methods and next time make a game that defeats your method.

Where do you read this? There is no bots like this exist. I think you should read about house edge, If you lose then it is because of the house edge and no one is manipulating your methods or your bet. If a casino do this then they are cheating but they are not cheating because many casino here is provably fair

[StevenLiang]

the sites have bot which manipulates your methods and next time make a game that defeats your method.

Where do you read this? There is no bots like this exist. I think you should read about house edge, If you lose then it is because of the house edge and no one is manipulating your methods or your bet. If a casino do this then they are cheating but they are not cheating because many casino here is provably fair

That is true, many online casino in here is provably fair.
Actually there are no some bot or "certain way" to win from house edge.
All is pure on luck.

[Inkvor]

Yeah there exist some tricks , play in some dice site with your strategy after playing 5-7 minutes cash-out all your winnings as you will loose in next play , the sites have bot which manipulates your methods and next time make a game that defeats your method.

sorry to say but thats your addiction which says so ,there are no tricks or if you think there are then you are free to show your daily profits as prove.
these casinos would ave been fucked up if the above quoted words were true.