Jalapeno question

[Meatball]

FWIW I'm estimating a diff increase of 30x in my calculations. Maybe it's excessive but I prefer to err on that side rather than the other.

30x isn't ridiculous.  The drop from 50 to 25 reward is a defacto doubling of difficulty, so your 30x estimate would mean a 15x increase in network size from the current 22 TH up to about 330 TH.  BFL has given a somewhat veiled claim that they have somewhere in the neighborhood of 180-200 TH of orders themselves.  330 TH is easily within the realm of possibility once all the ASIC vendors start producing/shipping in volume.  If that comes to pass, that 4.5 GH will net about .05 BTC/day, which is worth about 60 cents US at today's conversion rate.

[Shotgun_WooWoo]

Yeah...things are going to get much worse than that, so you might want to do more research before you pull the trigger and be sure about it.  BFL has already said they have enough orders to increase the network by 10x, and they are not the only ASIC vendors in that have pre-orders.  Couple that with the drop in reward by half and in a few months you'll likely make 1/20th with the 4.5 GH/s that you would be making today.  Which means the 4.5 GH/s that would do about 1.48 BTC/day right now will likely only be producing .07 BTC/day in a couple of months.

There's really no way to be sure what's going to happen with BTC/$ price and other factors, but the difficulty will be going up, so make sure you make an informed decision before you pre-order anything.

I just read the first sentence and was blown away.  The BTC community obviously needs to pull together.  Is there any initiative or group I can join/support in order to help stabilize or at least promote the stabilization of BTC?

[Meatball]

Now you guys got me all thinking.  So let's do a few calculations.  Assuming the following:

• We start off at today's difficulty of 3,054,628
• Conversion Rate of BTC/USD stays steady at 1 BTC = $12
• Power Usage is 1 Watt/GH (BFL's claim)
• Power Cost is .10 USD / Kilowatt Hour
• 1 Month = 30 days

10x Drop in Production per GH (5x Increase in Network Size/Difficulty, 2x Increase due to halving of Reward) - 'Effective Difficulty' Compared to Today: 30,546,280

Jalepeno (4.5 GH|$149) Produces 4.5 BTC/month and uses 3.24 Kilowatt Hours.
 (4.5 BTC * $12) - (3.2 kwh * .10) =  $54 - $0.32 = $53.80 Profit
 RoI: 2.76 Months

Little Single (30 GH|$649) Produces 30.03 BTC/Month, using 21.6 Kilowatt Hours
 (30.03 BTC * $12) - (21.6 kwh * .10) = $360.36 - $2.16 = $358.20 Profit
 RoI: 1.81 Months

Single SC (60 GH| $1299) Produces 60.06 BTC/Month using 43.2 Kilowatt Hours
 (60.06 BTC * $12) - (43.2 kwh * .10) = $720.72 - $4.32 = $716.40 Profit
 RoI: 1.81 Months

MiniRig (1500 GH|$29,899) Produces 1,501.49 BTC/Month using 1080 Kilowatt Hours
 (1501.49 BTC * $12) - (1080 kwh * .10) = $18017.88 - $108 = $17,909.88 Profit
 RoI: 1.66 Months

20x Drop in Production per GH (10x Increase in Network Size/Difficulty, 2x Increase due to halving of Reward) - 'Effective Difficulty' Compared to Today: 61,092,560

Jalepeno (4.5 GH|$149) Produces 2.25 BTC/month and uses 3.24 Kilowatt Hours.
 (2.25 BTC * $12) - (3.2 kwh * .10) =  $27 - $0.32 = $26.68 Profit
 RoI: 5.58 Months

Little Single (30 GH|$649) Produces 15.01 BTC/Month, using 21.6 Kilowatt Hours
 (15.01 BTC * $12) - (21.6 kwh * .10) = $180.12 - $2.16 = $177.96 Profit
 RoI: 3.64 Months

Single SC (60 GH| $1299) Produces 30.03 BTC/Month using 43.2 Kilowatt Hours
 (30.03 BTC * $12) - (43.2 kwh * .10) = $360.36 - $4.32 = $356.04 Profit
 RoI: 3.64 Months

MiniRig (1500 GH|$29,899) Produces 750.75 BTC/Month using 1080 Kilowatt Hours
 (750.75 BTC * $12) - (1080 kwh * .10) = $9009 - $108 = $8,901 Profit
 RoI: 3.36 Months

30x Drop in Production per GH (15x Increase in Network Size/Difficulty, 2x Increase due to halving of Reward) - 'Effective Difficulty' Compared to Today: 91,638,840

Jalepeno (4.5 GH|$149) Produces 1.5 BTC/month and uses 3.24 Kilowatt Hours.
 (2.25 BTC * $12) - (3.2 kwh * .10) =  $18 - $0.32 = $17.68 Profit
 RoI: 8.42 Months

Little Single (30 GH|$649) Produces 10.01 BTC/Month, using 21.6 Kilowatt Hours
 (10.01 BTC * $12) - (21.6 kwh * .10) = $120.12 - $2.16 = $117.96 Profit
 RoI: 5.50 Months

Single SC (60 GH| $1299) Produces 20.02 BTC/Month using 43.2 Kilowatt Hours
 (20.02 BTC * $12) - (43.2 kwh * .10) = $240.24 - $4.32 = $235.92 Profit
 RoI: 5.51 Months

MiniRig (1500 GH|$29,899) Produces 500.5 BTC/Month using 1080 Kilowatt Hours
 (500.5 BTC * $12) - (1080 kwh * .10) = $6006 - $108 = $5,898 Profit
 RoI: 5.07 Months

-----

If any of these 'effective' difficulties come true, mining will still be extremely profitable when you factor in power costs.  But when you look at Return on Investment and trying to recoup your original cost of buying the units, things get a bit more iffy.  You could even lose money in the long run.  The network will not stand still and you'll be producing less per GH as time goes on.  Also there's no way to know if the value of BTC against the USD will stay at $12, stagnate, drop or increase.  I actually expect this at best, things will stagnate pricewise over the next 5-6 months as people will be selling their BTC as quickly as they can to try to recover their initial costs and there will be a lot more supply than demand.

Of course, all of this could be completely off base.  BTC is a strange animal and the BTC/$ conversion could go way up or way down.

[MrTeal]

Let's say you order an SC Single now, and when you get it the difficulty is 10x higher than it is now. BFL has stated that their products up to know won't cause a 10x increase, but by the time all the BFL preorders are out chances are there could be 54TH/s of bASIC units on the network as well. 10x is probably pretty conservative for the network when you get your Single. At that rate, you'd be earning just under BTC1/day.

Now, if from there on out the network continues to grow at 20% a month as new BFL and bASIC units come online and Avalon and Reclaimer launch, your ROI at current BTC prices would be about 232 days. If the network were to grow at 30%, you've never make your money back.

[dserrano5]

Now, if from there on out the network continues to grow at 20% a month as new BFL and bASIC units come online and Avalon and Reclaimer launch, your ROI at current BTC prices would be about 232 days. If the network were to grow at 30%, you've never make your money back.

20% a month (or any amount per unit of time) is an exponential growth. While I think we'll see something resembling that during the first months, I think it's unrealistic in the long run.

[Shotgun_WooWoo]

To run as a sufficient mining hardware device, it needs to do the math and "work" (mining) itself.  I think it should be a simple plug and play device, but provide something special, such as an explanation as to how BTCs are made/rewarded.

I haven't done much research into it, but I think it might have something to do with recognizing certain transfers of data, money, etc and compiling a special "BTC" as a sort of reward/acknowledgement.  If that is the case, not only would miners have to stop worrying about power consumption charges, they could rest easily knowing they are doing more than frying their old graphics cards. 

I know the internet is all connected, which means almost anything is possible.  Good or bad 

[Meatball]

I haven't done much research into it, but I think it might have something to do with recognizing certain transfers of data, money, etc and compiling a special "BTC" as a sort of reward/acknowledgement.

If you haven't done much research, you shouldn't dabble into BTC.  It wouldn't take long to get up to speed on things, but just buying mining equipment blindly is crazy

[firefop]

Now, if from there on out the network continues to grow at 20% a month as new BFL and bASIC units come online and Avalon and Reclaimer launch, your ROI at current BTC prices would be about 232 days. If the network were to grow at 30%, you've never make your money back.

20% a month (or any amount per unit of time) is an exponential growth. While I think we'll see something resembling that during the first months, I think it's unrealistic in the long run.

It isn't exponential growth at all. It's the standard growth rate that all miners use if they want to increase profits over time. 20% of everything earned going back into more hardware. *shrug*
imo it's linear growth.

[MrTeal]

Now, if from there on out the network continues to grow at 20% a month as new BFL and bASIC units come online and Avalon and Reclaimer launch, your ROI at current BTC prices would be about 232 days. If the network were to grow at 30%, you've never make your money back.

20% a month (or any amount per unit of time) is an exponential growth. While I think we'll see something resembling that during the first months, I think it's unrealistic in the long run.

It isn't exponential growth at all. It's the standard growth rate that all miners use if they want to increase profits over time. 20% of everything earned going back into more hardware. *shrug*
imo it's linear growth.

Actually, 20% month over month is an exponential, it would be 1.2^n. I didn't word that well at all, I meant a 30% increase every month from the baseline of 10x the current difficulty. So, say it's 250TH/s on Dec 1 when you get your unit, it would be 325TH/s on New Year's, 400TH/s Feb-1.

If that was the case, a crude estimation of how long it would take to pay for a $150 Jalapeno would be Dec-2014 (Network HR ~2PH/s). You might never pay off shipping and tax.

The numbers probably won't actually look like that, but it's not completely out of left field that we could be at 2PH/s in two years. For one, once volume starts declining and the NRE gets paid off, the price will probably plummet. BFL's little single is going to use the same case and heatsink/fan as the big single with half the ASIC chips and possibly a different PCB. If they can sell the little single profitably at $649, they have pretty impressive margins on the $1300 Single. I could see a 60GH/s Single being ~$600 by next summer, and continuing to decline if BFL isn't lying about the kind of volume they're planning for.

[Desolator]

At least I'm not the only person here who can do math correctly.  Hurray to the several posts above me!
Although...

Little Single (30 GH|$649) Produces 10.01 BTC/Month, using 21.6 Kilowatt Hours
 (10.01 BTC * $12) - (21.6 kwh * .10) = $120.12 - $2.16 = $117.96 Profit
 RoI: 5.50 Months

I ran 30,000 GH/s through deepbit's estimator at the current difficulty and did *30 for 1 month and then /30 for 15x difficulty at half the reward and got 8.89BTC/day, not 10.01.

[CJGoodings]

If all this Asic drama is for real, you know for damn sure the second miners start collecting btc from their minings, the price will drop like a rock as everybody sells into the wall trying to get as much as possible before all their fellow asic miners do the same.

[Shotgun_WooWoo]

From my point of view, BTC is a jumble as of right now.  I've tried to become involved, but haven't been able to.

I'm all for making it a succsessful endeavor, but it's looking like the end of times currency as of right now.  I'm being facetious, but I think we can all agree it needs work and to become more user friendly.  There's too much negativity surrounding it.

[crazyates]

At least I'm not the only person here who can do math correctly.  Hurray to the several posts above me!
Although...

Little Single (30 GH|$649) Produces 10.01 BTC/Month, using 21.6 Kilowatt Hours
 (10.01 BTC * $12) - (21.6 kwh * .10) = $120.12 - $2.16 = $117.96 Profit
 RoI: 5.50 Months

I ran 30,000 GH/s through deepbit's estimator at the current difficulty and did *30 for 1 month and then /30 for 15x difficulty at half the reward and got 8.89BTC/day, not 10.01.

Deepbit's calculator is good for quick and dirty estimates, but http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php is much better.

With a 45 million difficulty and 25 reward, it says 0.3353 BTC/day. over 30 days, that's right at 10.06 BTC/month.

[Desolator]

If all this Asic drama is for real, you know for damn sure the second miners start collecting btc from their minings, the price will drop like a rock as everybody sells into the wall trying to get as much as possible before all their fellow asic miners do the same.

I might have to throw my computer at the next person who says that.  50 BTC are created every 10 minutes no matter how fast all the computers are in the entire network.  Everyone going from 500MH/s to 5000 with ASICs would not make 10x the coins!  That's not how it works!!!!!!!!!!!  So in your case, with 2x the miners all of a sudden, there's actually less BTC to go around for people that want BTC so the price will go up a little.

Although people did shoot down my 100% legitimate concern that after ASICs are first turned on en masse, there will probably be a block solved every 2 minutes for over 1000 blocks until the difficulty adjusts.  Now that is a supply level problem.

[BobbyJo]

If all this Asic drama is for real, you know for damn sure the second miners start collecting btc from their minings, the price will drop like a rock as everybody sells into the wall trying to get as much as possible before all their fellow asic miners do the same.

If you think this is the case, sell everything now and buy back when the prices hit the floor in a couple of months!!  Far more profit to be made in speculation than in mining!

[Desolator]

[firefop]

If all this Asic drama is for real, you know for damn sure the second miners start collecting btc from their minings, the price will drop like a rock as everybody sells into the wall trying to get as much as possible before all their fellow asic miners do the same.

I might have to throw my computer at the next person who says that.  50 BTC are created every 10 minutes no matter how fast all the computers are in the entire network.  Everyone going from 500MH/s to 5000 with ASICs would not make 10x the coins!  That's not how it works!!!!!!!!!!!  So in your case, with 2x the miners all of a sudden, there's actually less BTC to go around for people that want BTC so the price will go up a little.

Although people did shoot down my 100% legitimate concern that after ASICs are first turned on en masse, there will probably be a block solved every 2 minutes for over 1000 blocks until the difficulty adjusts.  Now that is a supply level problem.

Yes, and that's exactly what's likely to happen - assuming that 100 th/s comes on line all at once, we'd see at least 1 quick difficulty adjustment - (where 2 weeks of coins get created in a few hours). And it could very well crash the markets. Then again, that crash is only likely to persist for a few days - maybe a week - before those coins all get sold and the normal support kicks back in.

I also think that if people on SR are selling pegged to USD then we'll likely see support build back quickly, since they'd simply charge more btc to meet costs and that would rapidly consume the supply.

[HolyScott]

A few more weeks and we will start to find out everything

[Gabi]

Yeah well, same happened with GPU mining when it appeared, did bitcoin die?

Seriously guys, these "omg bitcoin is going to die" bullshit is ridicolous  omg but it's almost 21 december 2012, it's really the end!!!!! omg!!!

[firefop]

Yeah well, same happened with GPU mining when it appeared, did bitcoin die?

Seriously guys, these "omg bitcoin is going to die" bullshit is ridicolous  omg but it's almost 21 december 2012, it's really the end!!!!! omg!!!

I don't think it'll die - But I do think that asic deployment will create an entry barrier to using the network.

When I first started this whole bitcoin thing - it was because I could (maybe) make a little money with my video card. Just because it sounded like it was well designed I wanted to try it. That sort of adoption won't be possible anymore. Now the new miners choice is "spend 150 bucks to try it out"

Granted there may be some who'll try gpu mining anyway - then decide it's easier to just purchase btc.