Jalapeno question

[Desolator]

Well, BTC went from $33 to $0.01 and back and forth between $7, $11, $12, and $4 without getting destroyed.  These days you can steal 10,000BTC and dump them on MTGox and it'd drop the price like $0.20 or something so I don't think anything's going to destroy bitcoins from a price standpoint at least.  A >50% attack would obviously destroy it and stealing enough BTC would maybe (but not likely) destroy but there's like 3 entities with enough BTC in one place to do that.

[Meatball]

There's one thing left that can still kill BTC.  The realization that there really isn't anything to buy with them.

[Shotgun_WooWoo]

There is plenty.  There's bitmit, alpaca socks, the marketplace here, and much more.  I think it needs to be stabalized though.  It's a little rough around the edges atm.  I'm hopeing the new ASICs won't raise the difficulty too much and blow previous card rig miners out of the water, nor make mining too mainstream.  There's just something about seeing a 1024x768 HD JPEG of a couple beer crates and whirring graphic cards that gives BTC a special appeal. =)

[MooC Tals]

But with a 4.5GH/S hash rate, it can mine pretty quickly; I imagine.  What would the BTC average per day be?

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

[dani]

why is everybody assuming 12$ not to change while calculating for any other circumstance? I dont find too many people thinking about that.
After blockhalving we wont see $/btc doubling, because 10,305,400 BTC (according to bitcoinwatch) have been mined already and 7200btc/day vs 3600btc/day wont affect the price like that. Anyway an increase purely based on that fact is pretty much what i expect, but of course there are more factors.

What if btc/$ drops within first days (after the first wave of asic-miners tries to sell their easy mined btc) and everybody mining after that waits for block halving (and $/btc to rise) holding their btcs together? i would expect another bubble like we had some months back, but to peak at around 20-25$..

what you guys think?

[flynn]

why is everybody assuming 12$ not to change while calculating for any other circumstance? I dont find too many people thinking about that.
After blockhalving we wont see $/btc doubling, because 10,305,400 BTC (according to bitcoinwatch) have been mined already and 7200btc/day vs 3600btc/day wont affect the price like that. Anyway an increase purely based on that fact is pretty much what i expect, but of course there are more factors.

What if btc/$ drops within first days (after the first wave of asic-miners tries to sell their easy mined btc) and everybody mining after that waits for block halving (and $/btc to rise) holding their btcs together? i would expect another bubble like we had some months back, but to peak at around 20-25$..

what you guys think?

methink it's already in the price. It happend when it went from $5 to $10

[dserrano5]

why is everybody assuming 12$ not to change while calculating for any other circumstance?

Because it's impossible to know. We take into account an increase in the difficulty because we know it's going to happen, but price can go any direction. It's anyone's guess.

[thirdchance57]

right, the number of bitcoins arent going to change much. so that only really leaves demand to move the price. and with ideas like fiat currency collapse mainstream, im bullish.

[Meatball]

why is everybody assuming 12$ not to change while calculating for any other circumstance? I dont find too many people thinking about that.
After blockhalving we wont see $/btc doubling, because 10,305,400 BTC (according to bitcoinwatch) have been mined already and 7200btc/day vs 3600btc/day wont affect the price like that. Anyway an increase purely based on that fact is pretty much what i expect, but of course there are more factors.

What if btc/$ drops within first days (after the first wave of asic-miners tries to sell their easy mined btc) and everybody mining after that waits for block halving (and $/btc to rise) holding their btcs together? i would expect another bubble like we had some months back, but to peak at around 20-25$..

what you guys think?

It's almost impossible to tell what BTC prices are going to do, so it's just easier to assume BTC price will remain stable or even drop as difficulty ramps up.  There was a time in the not too distant past that Bitcoins were $35 and the difficulty was only 567K.  You just never know what's going to happen.  If/when ASIC's hit, BTC could shoot up b/c all those GPU miners who can't afford to buy ASIC's may want to stay in the game and start buying up BTC.  On the other hand, every ASIC miner and their brother is going to be dumping BTC to get return on their investment, so it could go anywhere.

[dani]

good thinking, you guys are absolutely right. i just find it funny whenever people calculate stuff and come up with a result that they think is a good guess, without touching or thinking about btc price..
i guess going down to 5$ (or less) and up to 20$(or more) is very likely to happen. i tell you both will happen within short time.
*quits now as fortuneteller for not getting sued*

[strideynet]

Why do people think this is a scam??
There is too many people scamming the same thing?
Anyone technology comes and goes. People probably thought that mobile phones were a scam.
Bfl has pics. If anyone isn't a scam its Bfl. In 3 months some other chip for mining will come along.
Maybe they'll discover a diamond that can generate hashes at 100 petahash.i dunno. Just done be scared of the ASIC. It's not impossible to design a chip just for mining eh?

[pyromaniac]

Why do people think this is a scam??
There is too many people scamming the same thing?
Anyone technology comes and goes. People probably thought that mobile phones were a scam.
Bfl has pics. If anyone isn't a scam its Bfl. In 3 months some other chip for mining will come along.
Maybe they'll discover a diamond that can generate hashes at 100 petahash.i dunno. Just done be scared of the ASIC. It's not impossible to design a chip just for mining eh?

People think this is a scam because:
They changed the release date many times .
ASICs looks too incredible to be real.
Even if they will make a devices, difficulty growth make them unprofitable.
Pics? I have a lot of pics of UFOs. Are they also real?

[creativex]

Even if they will make a devices, difficulty growth make them unprofitable.

True ONLY if price doesn't change. See conversation above.

[Shotgun_WooWoo]

4gh/z is a reasonable speed for a novice miner.  I doubt the difficulty will rise too much, but it will rise according to the projected finish date BTC has set in place.  I guess that's why we have pools though =)

[Meatball]

4gh/z is a reasonable speed for a novice miner.  I doubt the difficulty will rise too much, but it will rise according to the projected finish date BTC has set in place.  I guess that's why we have pools though =)

One thing to consider is even if ASIC's never arrive, in about 3 weeks the reward drop will hit and a 4 GH rig will make about what a 2 GH rig is making today.

[strideynet]

Reward drop is good. Difficulty increase good.

as the reward gets lower less people will mine! The demand for bitcoin should also go up. Less people making bitcoins then value of bitcoin goes up. When the difficulty shoots up most gpu miners will quit.

[Meatball]

Reward drop is good. Difficulty increase good.

as the reward gets lower less people will mine! The demand for bitcoin should also go up. Less people making bitcoins then value of bitcoin goes up. When the difficulty shoots up most gpu miners will quit.

Ah, that may not totally be the case.  Demand for Bitcoin is still tied mostly to speculators, and it's not likely ever single person GPU mining that drops out will buy BTC to replace their mining.  They may just flat out stop dealing with BTC and sell or hold all they have.  Throw in the fact that ASIC miners are going to be dumping BTC like mad trying to recoup their costs, there's going to be a lot more supply than demand for a while.